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Public Opinion in Serbia Attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal

This study examines the attitudes of the Serbian population towards the Hague Tribunal, focusing on the perception of its threat to the security of Serbia. The research includes the level of knowledge about the tribunal, attitudes towards cooperation with it, confidence in its procedures, and the influence of trials on public opinion. The study also explores the potential for attitude change.

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Public Opinion in Serbia Attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal

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  1. Public Opinion in SerbiaAttitudes towards the Hague Tribunal SMMRI July, 2003 Belgrade Centre for Human Rights

  2. Methodology • Realization:Field work realized from19 –22 July, 2003 • Target population:18+ / Serbiawithout Kosmet • Sample - size:1545 • Sample -type: Three-stage stratified sample • Sample - stages: • Units of the first stage: Electoral placesterritory (PPS) • Units of the second stage: Households (SRSWoR – random walk) • Units of the third stage: Respondents within a household (SRSWoR – Kish scheme) • Type of research:Omnibus, face to facesurvey • Poststratification:By gender, age and region • Error:+/-1% for phenomena with incidence of 3% SMMRI

  3. Contents • Political environment • Attitudes towards international community institutions – Does the Hague Tribunal threatenthe security of Serbia • Attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal • The level of being informed about the institution of the Hague Tribunal • Importance and attitudes towards cooperation with the Hague Tribunal • Attitudes towards the Prosecutor and judges • Confidence in the Hague Tribunal • Influence of the trials on the attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and towards the guilt of the indicted • Potential for change of the attitudes SMMRI

  4. Political environment • After the optimism during the emergency state, all indicators of the attitudes towards general situation in the country have decreased, and returned to the level from February, before the assassination of Prime Minister Djindjić: evaluation of direction in which Serbia is heading (45% of citizens perceive it asbad), personal living standard since the change of regime (only 24% feel it as being better), expectations for the next 6 months (30% expect improvement). • Rating of Democratic Party constantly decreases, G17+, DSS and SRS increase • 40% of population would not entrust to any of the politicians the position of the President of Serbia;the most trusted with this respect are Koštunica and Labus, but the former by only 17%, and the latterby 15% of population SMMRI

  5. Political environmentIn which direction is Serbia headed ... Basic indicator of general situation which, as a rule, is parallel with confidence in regime, and which used to be parallel with rating of the assassinated Prime Minister Djindjić, started to decrease abruptly after the state of emergency was over. In July, this indicator is back to the level from before the Djindjic’s assassination. SMMRI

  6. Political environmentSince electionsin December2000, have your personal standard been... During the period of optimism which characterized the state of emergency, personal living standard was perceived as better, but, with decrease of optimism the same standard is perceived as less favorable SMMRI

  7. Political environmentStandard, expectations for the next6 months In the period of optimism expectations for the future were much higher; in July they were below the level recorded before the assassination of Zoran Djindjić SMMRI

  8. Political environment : Support of political parties Party they would vote for if elections were held on Sunday Right after the assassination of Prime Minister Djindjić, the rating of Democratic Party abruptely increased, but, with the overall fall of optimism and confidence, it has been constantly decreasing. SMMRI

  9. Political environment : Whom they would assign as the President of the Republic % More than 40% of the citizens do not trust any politician enough to entrust him the position of the President of the Republic SMMRI

  10. Attitudes towards international community institutionsDoes the Hague Tribunal threaten the safety of Serbia • Right until the assassination of Zoran Djindjić, the Hague Tribunal, besides NATO, and even in somewhat higher percentage, was the only international institution which was perceived as threatening for the safety of Serbia by more than one half of population • After the state of emergency, in May, percent of population which perceived the Hague Tribunal as threatening decreased to 40%, but still, together with NATO, it kept its convincing first position as the most threatening international institution • The strongest feeling of Serbia being threated by Hague Tribunal was found among the supporters of SRS and SPS;the same feeling was found among more than half of DSS supporters, and the least among DS and G17+ supporters (however, even among them somewhat above ¼ perceive the Hague Tribunal as threatening for Serbia) SMMRI

  11. Attitudes towards international community institutionsDoes the Hague Tribunal threaten the safety of Serbia December 00 December 01 January 03 May 03 EU OSCE % UNSC The Hague Tribunal NATO Citizens feel the Hague Tribunal as even more threating for Serbia than NATO SMMRI

  12. Attitudes towards international community institutionsDoes the Hague Tribunal threaten the safety of Serbia Feeling of being threatened by political commitment The feeling of being threatened by the Hague Tribunal was found the most among the supporters of SRS and SPS, and the least among the supporters of DS and G17+ SMMRI

  13. Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalThe level of being informed about the institution of the Hague Tribunal • Just 6% of population consider themselves well informed about the institution of the Hague Tribunal • The best known are the Chief prosecutor Carla del Ponte and judge Richard May • 45% of population are aware that UN is the founder of the Hague Tribunal, but less than ¼ are aware of the fact that Slobodan Milošević was the one who agreed to cooperate in the name of Yugoslavia SMMRI

  14. Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalThe level of being informed about the institution of the Hague Tribunal 64% 6% Majority of the citizens consider their knowledge about the Hague Tribunal as small or very small SMMRI

  15. Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalThe level of being informed about the institution of the Hague Tribunal What is the full name of the Hague Tribunal? Who is the founder of the HT? 45% Just 7% of population knew the full name of the Hague Tribunal, specifying that this is a Tribunal for War Crimes in Former Yugoslavia 45% of population know that UN is the founder of the Hague Tribunal, but just 17% know that this is the UN Security Council SMMRI

  16. Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalThe level of being informed about the institution of the Hague Tribunal What is the function of Carla del Ponte? What is the name of chief judge intrial against Slobodan Milošević? Majority of population know the name of the chief judge in trial against Milošević, but even higher percentage of them knowthe function of Carla del Ponte SMMRI

  17. Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalThe level of being informed about the institution of the Hague Tribunal Who is our politician who agreed in name of Yugoslavia to cooperation with the Hague after its establishment? Just one in four or five adult citizens of Serbia know that Slobodan Milošević agreed to cooperation with the Hague Tribunal in name of Yugoslavia SMMRI

  18. Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalImportance and attitudes towards cooperation with the Hague Tribunal • When talking spontaneously about major problems in Serbia at this moment, the citizens rarely mention the Hague Tribunal (1%), but, on the other hand,around 60% consider it as an important problem when asked directly • Majority of population support cooperation with the Hague Tribunal, and this percent has considerably increased over the past two years, however, only 15% think that the reason for cooperation should be justice • More than one half of population thinkthat Serbia should not cooperate in locating Karadžić and Mladić: 20% of population think that they are not guilty, while 15% think that trial in The Hague Tribunal wouldn’t be fair SMMRI

  19. Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalImportance and attitudes towards cooperation with the Hague Tribunal What are the main problems which Serbia is facing at this moment? Spontaneous answers (possibility of 3 answers) % % % Just 1% of the citizens spontaneously mention cooperation with the Hague Tribunal as one of the main problems which Serbia is faced with at this moment. SMMRI

  20. Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalImportance and attitudes towards cooperation with the Hague Tribunal Rated importance of the mentioned problems for citizens’ near future Rated importance of cooperation with the HT for other problems in Serbia Unimportant % Important Unimportant % Important Majority of citizens consider cooperation with the Hague Tribunal as important for their future, but in a much lesser percentage than other important problems. Cooperation with the Hague Tribunal is considered as the most important factor for admission in EU. SMMRI

  21. Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalImportance and attitudes towards cooperation with the Hague Tribunal WE SHOULD COOPERATE 85% WE SHOULDN’T COOPERATE MOTIVES FOR COOPERATION 70% 15% UTILITARIAN REASONS JUSTICE 85% of population think that it is necessary to cooperate, but just 15% find the reason for cooperation in justice, while as much as 41% support minimum of cooperation, just to the extent necessary to avoid sanctions SMMRI

  22. Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalImportance and attitudes towards cooperation with the Hague Tribunal Should Serbia extradite the indicted Serbs to the Hague? If Serbia had two possibilities, which one would you chose?1. Itshould not extraditethe indicted Serbs to the Hague even if it wereagain exposed to sanctions2. Itshould extraditethe indicted Serbs to the Hagueandavoid sanctions MAY 2001 During the past 2 years the percent of people accepting the necessity of cooperation with the Hague Tribunal have increased: Although utilitarian reasons influenced the change of attitude of 35% of people in the direction of accepting the necessity of extradition of the accused, another 35% in May 2001 still thought that the accused Serbs shouldn’t be extradited even at the cost of new sanctions, while only 14% inJuly 2003 are of this opinion SMMRI

  23. Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards guilt of the accused and their extradition Should the accused voluntarily surrender to the Hague Tribunal? Just one in 6 or 7 citizens thinks that the accused should be extradited because they are guilty, while one in 3 or 4 citizens thinks that they shouldn’t be extradited because the Hague Tribunal wouldn’t be fair SMMRI

  24. Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards guilt of the accused and their extradition Are there any accused who shouldn’t have been extradited to the Hague Tribunal? Why shouldn’t they have been extradited? Answers of 57% of population who mentioned at least 1 accused from the list 28% Of total population 12% Of total population 13% Of total population 57%of population mention at least one of the accused from the mentioned list More than one half of population think that at least one accused from the list should not have been extradited, while one in 3 or 4 citizens believes that at least one of them is not a war criminal SMMRI

  25. Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalAttitudes towards guilt of the accused and their extradition Should Serbia cooperate in locating Karadžić and Mladić? More than one half of population think that Serbia should not cooperate in locating Karadžić and Mladić SMMRI

  26. Attitudes towards guilt of the accused and their extraditionWhy Serbia should / shouldn’tcooperate in locating Karadžić and Mladić? Answers of 22% of population who think that Serbia should cooperate in extradition Answers of 59% of population who think that Serbia shouldn’t cooperate in extradition 16% Of total population 14% Of total population 15% Of total population 20% Of total population 8% Of total population Just 8% of population think that we should cooperate in locating Karadžić and Mladić because they are guilty for war crimes, while 20% of population think that we shouldn’t cooperate because they are not guilty One in 6 or 7 citizens thinks that we shouldn’t cooperate in extradition because trial in the HT will not be fair SMMRI

  27. Attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal:Attitudes towards Prosecutor and judges in the Hague Tribunal • Although majority of the citizens consider themselves as badly informed, just a slight percent of them didn’t have an attitude on the Hague Tribunal or refused to express it • Majority of population have an expressively negative attitude towards the Hague Tribunal, even more so towards the Prosecutor Carla del Ponte • The Hague Tribunal is criticized for biasness, and Carla del Ponte for partiality • Just one in 10 citizens of Serbia believes that Serbian citizens will have an unbiased trial • More than 80% of population believe that the accused Serbs are in more unfavorable position than any other nationality on trial SMMRI

  28. Attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal:Attitudes towards Prosecutor and judges in the Hague Tribunal Appraisal of Tribunal and the Prosecutor – general impression % % of negative grades Majority of population have an expressively negative attitude towards the Hague Tribunal, even more so towards the Prosecutor SMMRI

  29. Attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal:Attitudes towards Prosecutor and judges in the Hague Tribunal Appraisal of work of HT judges Appraisal of Carla Del Ponte’s work % Negative % Positive % Negative % Positive Supporters of DOS parties and G17+ have a considerably more positive attitude the judges and the Chief Prosecutor, but, even within this segment of population negative attitudes considerably exceed positive attitudes, especially those towards the Chief Prosecutor SMMRI

  30. Attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal:Attitudes towards Prosecutor and judges in the Hague Tribunal Appraisal of work of HT judges Appraisal of Carla Del Ponte’s work % Negative % Positive % Negative % Positive The highesti % of negative grades given to the judges were for impartiality, and to the Prosecutor for objectivity The prosecutor was graded much more negatively than the judges SMMRI

  31. Attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal:Confidence in the Hague Tribunal Confidence that the trials of the accused Serbs in the Hague Tribunal will be impartial % grades for impartiality in general Distrust in impartiality of the Hague Tribunal concerning the accused Serbs exceeds negative grades for general impartiality (69% against 57%) SMMRI

  32. Attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal:Confidence in the Hague Tribunal Confidence that the trials of the accused Serbs in the HT will be impartial Distrust % Trust Grades for impartiality in general Negative Positive Even among supporters of DOS and G17+ , as the segment of population with the highest confidence in the Hague Tribunal, higher percentage of distrust in impartiality is expressed concerning trials of Serb nationals than in impartiality in general SMMRI

  33. Attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal:Confidence in the Hague Tribunal What is the best reflection of partiality towards the accused Serbs Around one half of population think that partiality of the Hague Tribunal is best reflected in bigger number of the accused Serbs in comparison to the accused of other nationalities Bigger partiality is attributed to the process of indictment than to the trial process SMMRI

  34. Attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal:Confidence in the Hague Tribunal Rank of the accused according to favorable – unfavorableposition in front of the Hague Tribunal Average rank 11% of population think that all the accused are in the same position 82% of population think that the accused Serbs are in the most unfavorable position, while the most favorable position is attributed to Albanians SMMRI

  35. Influence of the trial process on the attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the indicted • In contrast to the first appearance of SlobodanMilošević in front of the Hague Tribunal, in February, 2002, when more than 60% of population watched at least a part of the TV broadcast, today much smaller percent watches trial against Milošević in the Hague (11%) • Effect of the first Milošević’s appearance was rise of his rating as a politician, and average grade for his appearance was very good, 3.76 (on the scale from 1 to 5). • Supporters of SRS and SPS get informed and follow the trial on TV much more than the supporters of other political parties, therefore, it is not unusual that, from the aspect of population, more distrust towards the Hague Tribunal is expressed by citizens who get more informed SMMRI

  36. Influence of the trial process on the attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the indicted • More than one half of population claim that course of trial against Milošević had no influence on change of their attitude towards his guilt, 18% changed the attitude in direction of his innocence, why just 11% in direction of guilt • Just 8% of the citizens trust witnesses of the prosecution, 70% don’t trust them at all, or trust them a little • Albanian witnesses are the least trusted, but Serbian witnesses are trusted by just slightly above 1/5 of population • Just 7% of population state that at least some testimony has influenced the change or their attitude towards the Hague Tribunal in positive direction SMMRI

  37. Influence of the trial process on the attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the indicted Percentage of population in Serbia who watched at least one direct broadcast of Milošević’s first appearance in the Hague (SMMRI CATI, Feb. 2002) % of positive grades for Milošević November 2001-July 2003 (SMMRI monthly Omnibus) Šešelj’s arrival In the Hague February 2003 Beginning of trial and TV broadcast February 2002 43% populacije 19% populacije 7% populacije Segment of population who watched at least a part of TV broadcast Average score (1 to 5) Milošević as a politician2.50 Average score (1 to 5) forappearance in the Hague3. 76 Milošević’s first appearance in the Hague was watched, at least partly, by more than one half of population, which brought to Milošević not only a very good average score for appearance, but also an abrupt rise of positive grades for him as a politician, the first time after the change of regime in 2000. SMMRI

  38. Influence of the trial process on the attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the indicted How much do you watchthe trial Against Slobodan Milošević on TV? How much do you get informed / watch the trials in the Hague Tribunal? Majority of people get scantly informed about the trial processes in the Hague, and now they rarely follow the trial process against Slobodan Milošević SMMRI

  39. Influence of the trial process on the attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the indicted How much do you get informed about the Hague trials? Confidence that the accused Serbs will be tried fairly 2% 2% 48% Of population 14% Of population 8% Of population How much do you get informed about the Hague trials? Within the segment of population which gets informed about the Hague trials the most, there exists a higher level of distrust in impartiality of the trials against the accused Serbs, most probably because supporters of SPS and SRS are the most interested in the trials. SMMRI

  40. Influence of the trial process on the attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the indicted How much do you get informed about thetrial against Milošević on TV? Confidence that the accused Serbs will be tried fairly 43% populacije 19% populacije 7% populacije How much do you follow on TV trial against Milošević? Within the segment of population who watch trial against Milošević the most, there exists a higher level of distrust in impartiality of the trials against the accused Serbs, most probably because supporters of SPS and SRS watch the trial against Milosevic the most. SMMRI

  41. Summary Total No 51.80% Yes, in direction of guilt 10.60% Yes, in direction of innocence 17.60% Doesn’t know/watch 19.8% Influence of the trial process on the attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the indicted Has the trial against Milošević influenced your attitude about his guilt? 43% populacije 19% populacije 7% populacije Just 11% of population have changed their attitude towards Milošević’s guilt in the direction of being even moreconvicted about his guilt (7%) or, from conviction that he is not guilty to conviction that he is guilty (4%) SMMRI

  42. Influence of the trial process on the attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the indicted How much do you trust witnesses of the prosecution who appeared in court so far, do you trust the truthfulness of theirtestimony? Trust 8% 43% populacije 19% populacije 7% populacije Distrust 70% Majority of the citizens do not trust the truthfulness of the testimonies of the prosecution witnessese SMMRI

  43. Influence of the trial process on the attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the indicted How much do you trust witnesses of the prosecution of various nationalities, do you trust the truthfulness of theirtestimony? 43% populacije 19% populacije 7% populacije Nationality of witnesses Witnesses of Albanian nationality are the least trusted, Serbian witnesses are trusted the most, however, even in case of Serbian witnesses public opinion is divided SMMRI

  44. Influence of the trial process on the attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal and guilt of the indicted Has any testimony influencedthe changeof your attitudetowards the Hague Tribunal? How did it change your attitude? Answers of 13% of population who stated that at least onetestimony influenced changeof their attitude towards the Hague Tribunal 9% of population 43% populacije 19% populacije 7% populacije 7% of population On the basis of testimonies just 7% of population (approximately one in 14 citizens) changed their attitude towards the Hague Tribunal in positive sense, while 9% (approximately one in 11 citizens) changed their attitude in negative sense. SMMRI

  45. Influence of the attitudes towards the Hague Tribunalonattitudes towardsInternational Crime Tribunal What will the International Crime Tribunallook like in comparison with theHague Tribunal? % in population 43% populacije 19% populacije 7% populacije Assessment of impartiality of the HT Expected objectivity of International Crime Tribunal is usually based on perception of the Hague Tribunal (38%) Somewhat less than 1/3 of population expect that International Crime Tribunal will be more objective than the Hague Tribunal, the biggest part of which (18%) are the citizens who give the Hague negative grades for impartiality SMMRI

  46. Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalPotential for change of attitudes • Classification of population based on the attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal has shown that it can be divided into 3 classes: 22% with positive attitude, 36% with negative attitudeand 41% with ambivalent attitude • The highest degree of agreement in the group of ambivalent citizens has the attitude that their opinion about the Hague would change if some more convincing proofs about their guilt were disclosed • The highest percentage of citizens with positive attitude is found among supporters of DOS parties and G17+, however, within this group, as well as among indecisive voters and DSS supporters, there is the highest percentage of ambivalent attitudes • SPS and SRS supporters have a negative attitude in expressively highest percentage, but, almost one half of DSS supporters also have a negative attitude SMMRI

  47. Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalPotential for change of attitudes • Most ambivalent is the generation between 40 and 50 years, older population express a dominantly negative attitude, while younger than 40, although dominantly ambivalent, express somewhat more positive attitude • Message which sentencing of the accused Serbs would be communicated to future generations, for most of the people in the segment with positive attitude isthe message of justice – war crimes can not remain unpunished; for segment with the negative attitude the message isa shame that Serbia has betrayed its defenders; the ambivalent are divided between justice and injustice, and shame for Serbia and the world SMMRI

  48. Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalPotential for change of attitudes Agreement Average score for agreement with the mentioned attitude by clusters* 9% populacije 43% populacije 22% 19% populacije 7% populacije 7% populacije 36% 41% Disagreement On the basis of the attitudes towards the Hague Tribunal population is grouped in 3 classes: those with positive attitude 22%, expressively negative 36% and ambivalent attitude as a potential for change of attitude in positive direction, 41% * Cluster centroid – cluster analysis SMMRI

  49. Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalPotential for change of attitudes 9% populacije 43% populacije 19% populacije 7% populacije 7% populacije In total population, the highest percent of agreement is reached on the attitude that the Hague Tribunal does not care about the truth, but almost half of population agree with the attitude that their opinion about the Hague could change to the better if some more convincing proofs about the guilt of the accused were disclosed SMMRI

  50. Attitudes towards the Hague TribunalPotential for change of attitudes If the accused Serbs are sentenced, what message will be communicated to future generations? 43% populacije 19% populacije 7% populacije 7% populacije For segment of population with a positive attitude, sentencing the accused will leave the message of justice being done; for those with negative attitude shame will remain on Serbia for having betrayed its defenders; the ambivalent are divided in their attitudes between justice, injustice, shame for Serbia and shame for the world SMMRI

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