Dublin at the Crossroads: Prospects for the Development of a ‘Greener’ Dublin

1. Dublin at the Crossroads:Prospects for the Development of a ‘Greener’ Dublin IIEA Climate Change Group, 9th July 2009

2. Introduction & Outline • The project • The futures approach • Key uncertainties for the future of the Dublin city region • Alternative future scenarios • Main policy actions & recommendations • Conclusion

3. About the Project • Dublin at the crossroads • Follow up from the Twice the Size? Imagineering the Future of Irish Gateways study • The pivotal role of the Dublin city region in Ireland • Need to examine the future of the city region more closely

4. The Futures Approach Set the Strategic Question Determine the Driving Forces of Change Diagnosis Divergence Identify the Pivotal Uncertainties Establish Scenario Logics Create Alternative Scenarios Emergence Test Policy Option Prognosis Identify Turning Points Convergence Produce Prospective Move to Strategic Planning Prescription

5. Key Uncertainties for the future of Dublin • Central government support for Dublin • Providing efficient infrastructure • Maintaining social stability and closing the gap between rich and poor • Educating, attracting and retaining highly talented and skilled people • Reforming the governance structures • Economic development • Access to resources • The effects of climate change

6. Feet of ClayScenario 1 • The world of 2030 is characterised by expanding globalisation, libertarianism, steady economic growth, open markets, rapid technological advances, weakened national governments, and ad-hoc alliances. • It’s a world of winners & losers with widening gap between rich and poor, dominance of individualistic and materialistic values and slow environmental action. • Enlarged and liberal Europe is a leader in ICT technologies, energy, air transport, pharmaceuticals and financial services. • Ireland is a strong global player, specialising in advanced science & technology, yet a country of contrasts and inequalities at all levels.

7. Feet of ClayScenario 1 • With 2.5 million people, Dublin city region is the key part of the Eastern Conurbation. • Governed by the elected Mayor, it is a city of winners & losers. • Spatially, it is a complex patchwork of modern public transport infrastructure, high-tech parks, ‘corp-towns’, ‘cloud-centres’’, gated communities, ghettos, urban waste land, wind farms and scarce green spaces. • Thriving economy fuelled by bio- & nano-technology industries, agri-business and global financial software cluster. • Mounting environmental pressures with water shortages, flooding, coastal erosion, biological pollution. • 35% of energy is renewable, 40% nuclear & 25% comes from fossil fuels. • Fragmentation of the society, growing gap between rich & poor, black spots of unemployment, riots, and social unrest. • Something sinister is brewing beneath the surface.

8. Winds of ChangeScenario 2 • The world of 2030 is more peaceful, equitable and environmentally stable due to widespread global collaboration and agreements such as the “Green New Deal”. • Natural capitalism is gradually replacing free-market model of early 2000s, and technological innovations aim to lessen human impacts on natural environment. • EU, with its 36 member states, is an effective federal government and its leadership in sustainable development is unquestionable. Yet, its strong economic position is under threat from rising Asian economies. • Ireland pursues model of Swedish social democracy. New NSS led to development of urban regions on East and West coasts. • The country is much greener, but also much less wealthy.

9. Winds of ChangeScenario 2 • Dublin city region, governed by Dublin Metropolitan Authority headed by a directly elected mayor is part of the Eastern corridor. • Greener and more just place with good quality of life, efficient public transport system & more even society, but with less income. “Work less, work all” • ‘Green economy’ reflects Dublin’s drive towards sustainability. • ‘Green intervention’: carbon taxes, FSSD, urban growth limit, systems approach to sustainability. • Collaboration between main universities forced to share limited resources. • Greater regulation and control of people’s lives and stricter law enforcement, yet stability brought by this is appreciated. • Competition from the Western Corridor intensifies and Dublin’s position declines nationally and internationally.

10. The Lost DecadeScenario 3 • The world of 2030 is increasingly fragmented, questioning globalisation and abilities of technological development. • There are conflicts around resources, rapid urbanisation, mounting social and environmental pressures, rising crime. • Re-emergence of national states fuelled by rise of patriotic movements, preservation of personal independence and cultural identities. • EU is weakened, economically unstable, focusing on safety and security issues. Positive local initiatives and social movements are the hope for the future. • Ireland is in-between a failing modern & globally connected economy and a renewed, patriotic and inward looking nation state. • Economic and political turmoil of 2010s.

11. The Lost DecadeScenario 3 • With 2 million people, Dublin region is still the economic engine of Ireland, however, with a very low international ranking (88th). • The prolonged recession and political turmoil of 2010s had a very damaging effect on the city, which struggles with unabated sprawl, poor public transport, crime, racism, and social exclusion. • 2020s – new social movements “work together for a better Ireland” • The region’s economy is relatively stable, based on creative industries, data-management, heritage tourism, small scale manufacturing. • Poor quality of life for many – congestion, poor environmental conditions, reduced mobility and lack of access to services. • The society is much more inward looking with strong city and national identity. • In 2030, although social and environmental problems persist, new set of values embracing personal responsibility, solidarity and equality brings hope for the future.

12. Policy Actions & Recommendations • Long-term comprehensive future strategy for the Dublin city region (a whole system approach) • City-region governance structure • Effective city infrastructure • Resource efficient economy • Community development, social inclusion and youth education • Working together with the industry and citizens - tapping into the existing human and knowledge capital

13. Inspiring the Future Green Taxis Mobile Classrooms ‘Dublin Heroes’ Project Emissions Trading Institute Dublin – The New Media Capital

14. Conclusion • Change is taking place… • Growing recognition of Dublin’s importance for the national economy • The Natural Step approach employed by DCC • Increasing collaboration between actors in the region • Many threats on the horizon • But there are also opportunities… Cities and countries that invest in their people and give priority to the protection and enhancement of their natural environment will, in the long term, create more just, happier and healthier societies, as well as more stable and sustainable economies.

15. www.thefuturesacademy.ie Thank you! And over to Conor….