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What are the respective roles of theory, qualitative research and statistical analysis in establishing causality?

What are the respective roles of theory, qualitative research and statistical analysis in establishing causality?. Simon Burgess Research Methods Conference, November 2007. Big words. Causality Theory Qualitative research

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What are the respective roles of theory, qualitative research and statistical analysis in establishing causality?

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  1. What are the respective roles of theory, qualitative research and statistical analysis in establishing causality? Simon Burgess Research Methods Conference, November 2007

  2. Big words • Causality • Theory • Qualitative research • Participant observation, semi-structured interviews, ethnography, textual analysis, … • Statistical analysis • Econometrics, biometrics, multi-level modelling, … www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/CMPO

  3. Two main points • Counterfactuals • Central issue in causality • Constructing counterfactuals • Heterogeneity • Ex ante and ex post • Outcomes and motivations • Capturing and understanding motivations • Individual motivation and outcomes www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/CMPO

  4. Counterfactuals • Central issue in causality • Constructing counterfactuals • Statistical methods … • Qualitative research … • Heterogeneity • Range of effects; causality is in expectation • Large sample sizes important • Ex ante and ex post • Theory is crucial in being able to construct counterfactuals ex ante. www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/CMPO

  5. Outcomes and Motivations • Capturing and understanding motivations • Understanding motivations behind actions • Individual motivation and outcomes • Examples: • Training and employment • Inflation and monetary policy • Individuals in systems: • Individual motivations can lead to very different market outcomes. www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/CMPO

  6. Conclusions • Theory, qualitative research and statistical analysis: • All have a role. • If could only fund one – statistical analysis. • Trust the answers more if qualitative research backs it up. • A theoretical framework is necessary to discuss causality ex ante. www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/CMPO

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