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Assessing Violent Risks: How Terrorism Affects the Bottom Line in Financial Services

Assessing Violent Risks: How Terrorism Affects the Bottom Line in Financial Services 20 th May 2005. Impact on Financial Markets. Exclusive Analysis: Political Environment. Domestic Economic & Corporate Performance. Impact on Financial Markets. Global Market Drivers.

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Assessing Violent Risks: How Terrorism Affects the Bottom Line in Financial Services

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  1. Assessing Violent Risks: How Terrorism Affects the Bottom Line in Financial Services 20th May 2005

  2. Impact on Financial Markets Exclusive Analysis: Political Environment Domestic Economic & Corporate Performance Impact on Financial Markets Global Market Drivers

  3. Targets not always victims Flight of Expertise; Expats Increased security costs, insurance premium and time Disruptions to the supply chain Consumer confidence, spending patterns and costing assumptions Impact of Violent Risk on Profitability

  4. Can very large losses be avoided or passed on? What is the role of informed pricing? Political Risk Forecasting and Insurance/Reinsurance

  5. Strategic intelligence company which forecasts violent and political risk Make the Future Intelligible, Predictable and Profitable 400 analysts and specialist sources worldwide with a London based editorial team Run Global Indexes, including Lloyd’s Cargo Watch List Proprietary Model for Realistic Disaster Scenario Planning Introduction to Exclusive Analysis

  6. Total Client Accountability Full visibility Forecasting is all we do Privately owned INDEPENDENT TRANSPARENT FOCUSSED Audit trail and disclosure compliance Revenue builds existing company No broker ties REPUTATION

  7. Case Study of EA Advice

  8. Risk Definitions War Political Risk Civil Unrest Terrorism

  9. Philippines: Globe Telecoms • NPA Communist attack on Globe Telecom in Hermosa, Bataan • NPA are prepared to extend violence to banks and mining properties

  10. Terrorism in Bolochistan: Pipelines Saudi succession and evolving target set Pipelines in Colombia Taxation of foreign energy companies in Bolivia East Timor Equatorial Guinea Sao Tome Ceyhan-Baku pipeline Energy

  11. Oil from Caspian Sea through Azerbaijan, Georgia, Eastern Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea and then on to Western markets. Strengthening of undemocratic regimes Further civil unrest Ceyhan-Baku Pipeline (BTC Project)

  12. Banks Banking

  13. Suicide bombings 2003 in Istanbul Al-Qaeda and a Turkish militant group (Great Eastern Islamic Raiders’ Front) 4 small bombs in Ankara outside HSBC branch 2004 HSBC announced it is to stay despite risk of further attacks Banks – HSBC Attacks

  14. DR Congo: Mining • Rioting in Mbuji Mayi, DR Congo • UDPS has flourished leading to civil unrest • Political mismanagement elevates instability

  15. Ivory Coast: Cocoa Industry • World’s main producer of cocoa • May 2005: Operation of Disarmament & Demobilization has been set in motion • Property will remain vulnerable

  16. Hotels and Hospitality: Kenya Paradise Hotel 2002 • Area with high concentration of tourists • Extensive damage to property • Threat to tourists industry set to increase

  17. Case Study: Iraq’s Reconstruction Elections: January 2005 • Who are the insurgents? • Elections have heightened sectarian and ethnic cleavages • Reintegration of Baathists • Kurdish autonomy

  18. Escalating civil unrest 2003 2004 2005 Departure of Gonzalez Left wing parties increase pressure on government Hydro carbon Law to destabilize Mesa Aggressive militant protest Escalating civil unrest Case Study: Bolivia (Gas)

  19. Assessing Violent Risks: How Terrorism Affects the Bottom Line in Financial Services 20th May 2005

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