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Pathways

Pathways. Nebojsa Nakicenovic, IIASA and TU Wien On Behalf of Keywan Riahi. The Key Energy Challenges. Climate Change. Energy Security. Energy Access. Air Pollution Health Impacts. Energy Goal. Global Energy Assessment (GEA, 2012).

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Pathways

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  1. Pathways Nebojsa Nakicenovic, IIASA and TU Wien On Behalf of Keywan Riahi

  2. The Key Energy Challenges Climate Change EnergySecurity Energy Access Air Pollution Health Impacts

  3. Energy Goal Global Energy Assessment (GEA, 2012) • Providing universal access to affordable clean cooking and electricity for the poor • Eliminating air pollution and health damages from energy use • Improving energy security throughout the world • Stabilizing global mean temperature at 2oC through vigorous decarbonization

  4. Energy Access (2010) People without access to electricity or clean cooking >3 billion without access to clean cooking 1.3 billion without access to electricity GEA: Chapter 19 (Pachauri et al, 2012)

  5. 40 30 20 10 Global CO2 emissions (GtCO2) 0 GEA - Supply -10 GEA - Mix GEA - Efficiency -20 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Global CO2 Emissions Limiting temperature change to below 2°C Peak by 2020 reductions of 30-70% by 2050 almost zero or negative in the long term CO2 from fossil fuels & industry GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012)

  6. GEA Scenarios & Energy Challenges Energy Access “Environmental & Social Awareness” “Regional Diversity” Mix Efficiency Sustainable Development Supply Environment Energy Security “Technology Drive”

  7. Characteristics of Pathways Energy Access • Very high efficiency & rapid energy intensity improvements • behavioral/life-style changes, including mobility, diets toward less meat, interconnected homes, etc.. • Sensitivity: 0-nuclear & 0-CCS cases • Very stringent climate targets (400 ppm equ. with overshoot or 450 ppm without) • Heterogeneous combinations, eg C&B • Different regions with different degree of fulfillment of SD criteria • Rapid access and security improvements • Intermediate climate targets (550 ppm equ. or 500 ppm with overshoot) and implications of delayed participation • Sensitivity: implications of financial crises (transition under capital scarcity); “Environmental & Social Awareness” “Regional Diversity” C A Sustainable Development • Massive supply-side changes and new infrastructures • Eg: H2 + very cheap CCS, nuclear and renewables • Intermediary energy intensity improvement (higher demand than C) • stringent climate targets (450 ppm equ. with high overshoot or 500 ppm) B Environment Energy Security “Technology Push”

  8. Efficiency & Demand-side Focus(= high flexibility for supply) 2500 GEA-Efficiency Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~50% renewables by 2050 Phase-out of oil in the long term (necessary) Fossil CCS (optional bridging technology) Bio-CCS & negative emissions (long-term) GEA-Efficiency Savings Nuclear Coal wCCS Geothermal Gas wCCS Coal woCCS Solar Gas woCCS Biomass wCCS 2000 GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012) Wind Oil Biomass woCCS 1500 Primary Energy, EJ per year 1000 500 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

  9. Supply-side Focus(= high demand-side flexibility) 2500 GEA-Supply Modest efficiency focus GEA-Supply 2000 1500 Rapid up-scaling of supply options including renewables, nuclear and CCS Primary Energy, EJ per year 1000 500 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Savings Nuclear Coal wCCS Geothermal Gas wCCS Coal woCCS Solar Gas woCCS Biomass wCCS GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012) Wind Oil Biomass woCCS

  10. In total 41 alternative pathways have been explored…

  11. Advancedtransportation Conventionaltransportation 1200 Savings Geothermal 1000 Solar Wind Hydro 800 Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS 600 Oil Primary Energy Supply [EJ/yr] Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS 400 Biomass woCCS 200 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Transformation: Constrained Portfolio GEA Efficiency – Rapid Energy Intensity Improvement Demand Side Technology Variation Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy Supply Side Technology Variation Scenario data available at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/geadb/

  12. Advancedtransportation Conventionaltransportation 1200 Savings Geothermal 1000 Solar Wind Hydro 800 Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS 600 Oil Primary Energy Supply [EJ/yr] Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS 400 Biomass woCCS 200 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Transformation: Constrained Portfolio GEA-Mix – Intermediate Energy Intensity Improvement Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy Scenario data available at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/geadb/

  13. Advancedtransportation Conventionaltransportation 1200 Savings Geothermal 1000 Solar Wind Hydro 800 Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS 600 Oil Primary Energy Supply [EJ/yr] Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS 400 Biomass woCCS 200 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Transformation: Constrained Portfolio GEA Supply – Slow Energy Intensity Improvement Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy Scenario data available at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/geadb/

  14. Global Final Energy Demand Industry: Retrofit of existing plants Best available technology for new investments Optimization of energy & material flows Lifecycle product design & enhanced recycling Electrification incl. switch to renewable energy Residential: Rapid introduction of strict building codes Accelerate retrofit rate to 3% of stock per year (x 4 improvement by 2050) Improved electrical appliances Transport: Technology efficiency (50%) Reduced private mobility (eg urban planning) Infrastructure for public transport + railway freight Industry Residential/Commercial Transport GEA-Efficiency

  15. World Energy Investments1250 billion$ (incl. demand) in 2010 Demand > 25% 300-1700 billion Developing 45% Industrialized 55% Electricity 40% Upstream: Fossil Fuels 30%

  16. Total Energy Investments Industrialized vs Developing World Developing Industrialized

  17. Investment Portfolio – China2010 & 2050 No Sustainability Policies (370 bill) Today (185 bill.) 2005-2010 2050

  18. Investment Portfolio – China2010 & 2050 GEA-Supply (530 bill.) No Sustainability Policies (370 bill) Today (185 bill.) 2005-2010 2050 2050

  19. Investment Portfolio – China2010 & 2050 GEA-Efficiency (407 bill.) No Sustainability Policies (370 bill) Today (185 bill.) 2005-2010 2050 2050

  20. Investment Portfolios Sub-Saharan Africa No Sustainability Policies (226 bill.) Today (30 bill.) 2005-2010 2050 Source: Riahi et al, 2012

  21. Investment Portfolios Sub-Saharan Africa GEA-Efficiency (309 bill.) No Sustainability Policies (226 bill.) Today (30 bill.) 2005-2010 2050 Source: Riahi et al, 2012

  22. GEA Health Assessment Present air pollution policies to 2030 World Emissions (2030) WHO health guidelines GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012; Rao et al, forthcoming)

  23. GEA Health Assessment Stringent pollution/access policies by 2030 World Emissions (2030) 2.6 million lives saved each year GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012; Rao et al, forthcoming)

  24. Energy Policy Costs (% GDP) Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012

  25. GEA-Databasewww.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/geadb

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