Robert Cahalan, NASA May 16, 2006

1. CCSP Observations Overview and Critical Issues Robert Cahalan, NASA May 16, 2006 ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

2. Critical issues for CCSP and USGEO • Observations and Monitoring • Integration – conceptual and model-based • Decision Support / Societal Benefits • Metrics ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

3. CCSP Guiding Vision A nation and the global community empowered with the science-based knowledge to manage the risks and opportunities of change in the climate and related environmental systems. USGEO Vision Statement Enable a healthy public, economy, and planet through an integrated, comprehensive, and sustained Earth observation system. ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

4. Climate Science Goals Improve Knowledge of Climate and Environment Improve Quantification of Forces Driving Changes to Climate Reduce Uncertainty in Projections of Future Climate Changes Understand Sensitivity & Adaptability of Natural and Manmade Ecosystems Explore Uses and Limits of Managing Risks and Opportunities CCSP Strategic Plan ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

5. ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

6. CCSP Internal Structure CCSP Interagency Committee Director: Asst. Sec. of Commerce for Oceans & Atmosphere CCSP Office Climate Var. & Change (Modeling) Obs (Data Mgmt) Interagency Working Groups HD / HCR LULCC Ecosystems Atm. Comp. Water Cycle Internat. Communications Carbon Cycle ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

7. Deliverables from CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 12: Observing & Monitoring the Climate SystemChapter 13: Data Management and Information • Total: 106 Deliverables • Obs: 81 Deliverables related to 28 Objectives! e.g.: • Obj 1.1: Develop a requirements-based design for the climate observing system • Obj 1.7: Assess observing system performance with uniform monitoring tools and evaluation • Obj 1.10: Develop a requirements-based program for collecting, integrating, and analyzing social, economic, and health factors with environmental change • Obj 4.3. Utilize climate system models to assist in the design of observation systems. • Obj 6.3. Develop science and management advisory boards and councils to prioritize across climate system components and to guide system evolution. • DIS: 25 Deliverables related to 11 Objectives. e.g.: • Obj 1.1: Develop standard metadata guidelines. • Obj 2.1: Improve access to data. • Obj 3.1: Establish links between data providers and decisionmakers. • Obj 4.2: Preserve historical records. ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

8. Observational and MonitoringChallenges • How to address diversity of gaps in observations: • Key observations to address critical science questions (e.g., water vapor feedback; carbon sequestration; ecosystem dynamics) • use of models to help define new obs • Benchmark observations for long-term analysis (e.g. GPS Radio Occultation, TSI, climate reference radiosondes and surface network) • Socio-economic data related to climate impacts • How to address long-term climate monitoring requirements? ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

9. Climate Monitoring Principles Climate monitoring systems should adhere to the following principles: • Assess impact of potential changes to existing systems • Overlap new and old observing systems • Describe rigorous metadata • Regularly assess the quality and homogeneity of the data • Consider the needs for environmental and climate-monitoring products/assessments • Maintain operation of historically-uninterrupted stations and observing systems • New obs should be focused on data-poor and change-sensitive regions and poorly-observed parameters • Long-term requirements should be specified at the outset of system design and implementation • Promote the conversion of research observing systems to long-term operations • Include data management systems that facilitate access, use, and interpretation of data and products Furthermore, satellite systems for monitoring climate need to: • Make calibration and cross-calibration a part of operational satellite systems • Sample the Earth system to resolve climate-relevant (diurnal, seasonal, and long-term interannual) variations ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

10. Integration Challenges • How to link societal benefits to measurement criteria? • Ongoing user input, and delivery system to users. • How to interact with users & stakeholders and add regional value? • How to link disparate observations to integrated problem solutions? • A bewildering array of observations • The observations within this array differ in, e.g.: • what is being measured • how often the measurements are taken • their consistency with each other • their accuracy ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

11. Integrated Earth System AnalysisOverarching objective Improve the scientific capacity to assimilate current and planned future observations from disparate observing systems into Earth system models that include physical, chemical, and biological processes in order to produce the best synthesized description of the state of the Earth system and how it is evolving over time. ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

12. Assimilation Model(s) Schematic of Earth System Analysis/Assimilation Best synthesized description of the state of the Earth system Best available representation of natural processes Internally consistent and complete gridded Earth system variables at high time resolution Diverse array of Earth system observations ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

13. Analyses Where does Earth system analysis fit in GEOSS? ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

14. Two primary components Ongoing Earth System Analyses: To provide the national foundation for assessing in near real-time and on an ongoing basis the current state of the global Earth system. Earth System Reanalyses: To define a baseline “Earth System Analysis of Record” to serve as the nation’s best assessment of how the Earth system has varied over the recent historical period. ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

15. The outcomes are vital to both USGEO and CCSP. • Provide important societal benefits for weather forecasting, disaster reduction, ocean resource protection, climate variability and change applications, agricultural, forestry, and ecological management, human health, and water and energy resources • Provide the best possible description of recent behavior of the Earth system for informing policy options related to global-to-regional environmental variations and change. • Provide historical and ongoing analyses of the Earth system to support a wide array of research studies, especially on the coupled system; inform model development and observational system approaches. • Support climate forecasts and climate predictability research. • Contribute to GEOSS: IESA produced by assimilating diverse observations into Earth system models provides an essential integrating component that is required for a true end-to-end Global Earth Observation System of Systems. Benefits of Earth System Analysis ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

16. Societal Benefits / Decision Support • For societal benefit, need predictions, impacts, and tools • critical to both USGEO and CCSP • Predictions • Seasonal-to-interannnual and decadal-to-centennial predictions and projections (improvements based in process understanding and initialization, etc.) • Assessment of observational changes on predictions • Need process to better engage models in improving GEOSS • Impact Assessments • Drought and other changes in characteristics of weather and climate extremes • Biodiversity and productivity • Tools • Decision support tools (e.g., web-based, human-based) • Note: NRC CHDGC meeting on incorporating human dimensions in observing systems (May 19-20) ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

17. Metrics • Evaluate and prioritize diverse observations critical to USGEO and CCSP • Satellite, Airborne, Surface • Benchmark observations. E.g. GPS Radio Occultation, TSI • Socio-economic data related to climate impacts • CCSP deliberations based on NRC report “Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program” • Observations Interagency Working Group workshop, June 14-15. • Primary Purpose: Develop a process to define and evolve more rigorous climate observing system requirements. This process would include metrics to evaluate and prioritize GCOS, especially U.S. contributions. ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

18. Observations Interagency Working Group Workshop • Inputs include: • Assessments of highest priority observations from each CCSP IWG • NRC report • Benefits:  • More rigorous climate observing system requirements and metrics. • Improved evaluation of proposed observational systems; • Use of climate model physics in cost/benefit analysis of observing system improvements • Outputs: • Roadmap for the OWG and OWGDIS to better coordinate climate observational activities across the CCSP agencies. • Recommendations on methodologies & tools for obs/dis evaluation • Short plan of 7-10 pages. ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

19. Bottom Line Critical needs for both CCSP and GEOSS include regularly updated Earth system reanalyses, metrics for GEOSS that include climate observing principles, continued development of decision support tools, and improved mechanisms of user feedback. ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

20. Backup Slides ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

21. CCSP Observational and Monitoring Goals (Ch. 12) 1. Design, develop, deploy, integrate, and sustain observation components into a comprehensive system. 2. Accelerate the development and deployment of observing and monitoring elements needed for decision support. 3. Provide stewardship of the observing system. 4. Integrate modeling activities with the observing system. 5. Foster international cooperation to develop a complete global observing system. 6. Manage the observing system with an effective interagency structure. ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

22. CCSP Data Management and Information Goals (Ch. 13) • Collect and manage data in multiple locations. • Enable users to discover and access data and information via the Internet. • Develop integrated information data products for scientists and decisionmakers. • Preserve data. ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

23. Synthesis & Assessment Products 1.1 Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere: Steps for understanding and reconciling differences (Q1 ’06, approval imminent; NOAA) 1.2 Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes (Q2 ’08; USGS) 1.3 Re-analyses of historical climate data for key atmospheric features. Implications for attribution of causes of observed change (Q2 ’08; NOAA) 2.1 Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations and review of integrated scenario development and application (Q4 ’06; DOE) 2.2 North American carbon budget & implications for the global carbon cycle (Q1 ’07; NOAA) 2.3 Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate (Q3 ’07; NASA) 2.4 Trends in emissions of ODSs, ozone layer recovery, and implications for ultraviolet radiation exposure and climate change. (Q2 ’08; NOAA) 3.1 Climate models: An assessment of strengths and limitations for user applications (Q2 ’07; DOE) 3.2 Climate projections for research and assessment based on emissions scenarios developed through the Climate Change Technology Program (Q3 ’07; NOAA) 3.3 Climate extremes: Analysis of the observed changes and variations and prospects for the future (Q2 ’08; NOAA) 3.4 Risks of abrupt changes in global climate (Q2 ’08; USGS) ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

24. S&A Products (cont.) 4.1 Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea level rise (Q3 ’07; EPA) 4.2 State-of-knowledge of thresholds of change that could lead to discontinuities (sudden changes) in some ecosystems and climate-sensitive resources (Q4 ’07; USGS) 4.3 Analyses of the effects of global change on agriculture, biodiversity, land, and water resources (Q4 ’07; USDA) 4.4 Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources (Q4 ’07; EPA) 4.5 Effects of climate change on energy production and use (Q2 ’07; DOE) 4.6 Analyses of the effects of global change on human health and welfare and human systems (Q4 ’07; EPA) 4.7 Within the transportation sector, a summary of climate change and variability sensitivities, potential impacts, and response options (Q4 ’07; DOT) 5.1 Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in decision support for selected sectors and regions (Q4 ’06; NASA) 5.2 Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decision making ( Q3 ’06; NOAA) 5.3 Decision support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to inter-annual forecasts and observational data (Q4 ’07; NOAA) ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

25. 2005 OWG Highlights • IEOS Strategic Plan – Authored Climate Appendix and more complete Climate IEOS Technical Reference : • http://iwgeo.ssc.nasa.gov/docs/EOCStrategic_Plan.pdf • http://iwgeo.ssc.nasa.gov/docs/review/Climate_Technical.pdf • IEOS Public Engagement Workshop (May 2005) – Participated in and Hosted Session on Climate : http://iwgeo.ssc.nasa.gov/docs/geo126SBA_Climate_Variability_breakout_summary4.doc • Our Changing Planet 2006 – Authored New Chapter on “Observing and Monitoring the Climate System” • CCSP User Workshop (Nov 2005) – Session 1 Rapporteur • “Simple Maturity Model” of OWGDIS ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

26. Scientific Maturity Maturity ofdata for use Societal Impact Preservation Maturity Simple Maturity Model • DIS maturity in terms of three separate dimensions: • Scientific Maturity • Preservation Maturity • Societal Impact • CMMI-like levels: • Initial – Unpredictable results • Managed – Repeatable performance • Defined – Cross-project interoperability • Quantitatively Managed – Improved performance + Compliance with Federal Enterprise Architecture • Optimized – Rapidly configurable performance + Continuous Process Improvement • Total maturity = vector length ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

27. Feedback from IEOS Workshop in May 2005 • Enhance Integration of Socio-economic Data and Societal Benefits • Climate scenarios extend a century or more whereas socio-economic data extends a couple decades at best • Provide examples of societal benefits of climate data in lay terms (e.g., building a dam) • Address Funding Challenges • Maintenance of data, data continuity, consistency of data, etc. which is critical to climate work • Funding for taking measurements versus funding for sharing and applying data and model integration (validation is equally as important) • Gap in funding the processing of data to make it useful • Funding of big “--OS” projects is diminishing funding of smaller observational projects ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

28. Feedback from IEOS Workshop (cont’d) • Better at predicting climate change rather than climate change impacts • Understand, assess, and predict are covered, mitigation and adaptation are lacking [Input from CCTP Strat Plan ?] • Socio-economic observational systems are missing • How do we focus efforts to address uncertainty (e.g., reduce uncertainty about uncertainty, understand uncertainty, and reduce uncertainty) • **Uncertainty because we don’t know versus Uncertainty from natural variations ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

29. Decision Support Goals (Ch. 11) • Prepare scientific syntheses and assessments to support informed discussion of climate variability and change issues by decisionmakers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. • Develop resources to support adaptive management and planning for responding to climate variability and change, and transition these resources from research to operational application. • Develop and evaluate methods (scenario evaluations, integrated analyses, alternative analytical approaches) to support climate change policymaking and demonstrate these methods with case studies. ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

30. DS Goal 2: Support for Adaptive Management/Planning Adaptive Management: A systematic approach used in managing climate-sensitive resources and sectors to adjust to variability and change in climate and other conditions that utilizes “learning by doing” (integrating knowledge with practice) • This area of work grows out of the insight that ongoing process is key to assessment and decision support and requires close interaction of users and producers of information • Many adaptive management projects in the United States are extensions of the first U.S. National Assessment’s stakeholder-driven and interdisciplinary collaborations ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006

31. Example: Wildfire Management Source: Gregg Garfin, University of ArizonaPhoto: New York Times • Research on biomass burning and the carbon cycle provides the scientific basis for wildfire monitoring and management… e.g. • National Seasonal Assessment Workshop A multi-agency collaboration that produces forecasts and maps of fire potential and enables participants to plan for the coming fire seasons. • Interdisciplinary initiative on the interactions among wildfire, climate and society • Develops models andother support tools • Scenario generation • Fire risk assessment ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006