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REPUBLIC OF TURKEY MINISTRY OF FORESTRY AND WATER AFFAIRS

REPUBLIC OF TURKEY MINISTRY OF FORESTRY AND WATER AFFAIRS. Climate Change Impacts On Turkish Water Resources From The Perspective Of Risk Management. Ayse YILDIRIM COSGUN DG Water Management 7th World Water Forum, Daegu /South Korea April 1 5 , 2015. CONTENT.

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REPUBLIC OF TURKEY MINISTRY OF FORESTRY AND WATER AFFAIRS

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  1. REPUBLIC OF TURKEY MINISTRY OF FORESTRY AND WATER AFFAIRS ClimateChangeImpacts On TurkishWaterResourcesFromThePerspective Of Risk Management Ayse YILDIRIM COSGUN DG WaterManagement 7th World Water Forum, Daegu/South Korea April 15, 2015

  2. CONTENT

  3. WATER POTENTIAL IN TURKEY Annual Precipitation : 501 billion m3 Annual Usable Surface Water : 98 billion m3 Annual Usable Ground Water : 14 billion m3 Annual Total Usable Water : 112billion m3 Population of Turkey (2010) : 74 million Annual Water Amount per person : ~1500 (m3/person-year)

  4. SECTORAL WATER CONSUMPTION IN TURKEY 2023 2010 Irrigation : 34 billion m3 (74%)Irrigation : 72 billion m3 (%64) Domestic : 7 billion m3 (%15)Domestic : 18 billion m3 (%16) Industry : 5 billion m3 (%11)Industry : 22 billion m3(%20) TOTAL : 46 billion m3TOTAL : 112 billion m3

  5. PRIME MINISTRY MINISTRY OF DEVELOPMENT WATER RELATED INSTITUTIONS IN TURKEY( CURRENT STRUCTURE ) • MINISTRY OF FORESTRY AND WATER AFFAIRS • DG WaterManagement • General Directorate of CombatingDesertificationandErosion • General Directorate of Nature ConservationandNationalParks MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCES General Directorate of Mineral Researchand Exploration • MINISTRY OF HEALTH • Presidency of SanitationCentre • Presidency of HealthGroup MINISTRY OF CULTURE AND TOURIZM GD of Publicity • MINISTRY OF FOOD, AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK • General Directorate of Agriculture Reform • General Directorate of FisheryandFisheryProducts • MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT AND URBANIZATION • GD of Environment Management • GD of EnviromentalImpactAssesmentand Planning • GD of DisasterAffairs • MINISTRY OF INTERNAL AFFAIRS • GDof Local Authorities • GD of Provincialadministration • GD of Provincial Bank • GD of Natural Heritage • GD of SHW • GD of Forestry • GD of Meteorology

  6. MAIN DUTY • Policy development for the protection, development and usage of water resources • And to coordinate water management issues both at national and international scale.

  7. FIGHTING AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE • Mitigation • Controlling, decreasing and absorption of the GHGs • Adaptation • The process of combatting against climate change impacts…

  8. NEED FOR ADAPTATION • Even in the case of stopping all GHG emissions, climate will continue to change. • Poor people and poverty areas will mostly be affected. • Climate change is a development problem. To minimize economical, socialandenvironmentaleffectsandrisks ADAPTATION

  9. HOW TO ADAPT? CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES PROJECT

  10. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES 25 River Basins Covering 783.562 km²

  11. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES PROJECT • Started on 18th December 2013, the project aims • to determine the impacts of climate change scenarios on surface and underground water bodies • to identify the adaptation activities, implementation region based on river basin districts covering whole Turkey. • It is envisaged to be completed in July,2016.

  12. PROJECT STEPS Climate Projections Hydrological Modelling Hydraulic Modelling Sectoral Vulnerability Projections for the period of 2015-2100 Adaptation Measures ClimaHydro Database

  13. 3 GCMs and Regional Climate Model • RCP4.5 mild scenario • RCP8.5 severe scenario • HadGEM2S • MPI • IPSL • Projection period: 2015-2100 • Reference period: • 1971-2000 http://iklim.ormansu.gov.tr/ 2 hydrological models are being run: • SWAT • WEAP HecRas

  14. MPI Model_MeanTemperatureRF ve RCP8.5 Model Results (2015-2100)

  15. MPI Model_Total PrecipitationRF ve RCP8.5 Results (2015-2100)

  16. HadGEM2-ES SnowCoverRF ve RCP8.5 Results (2015-2050)

  17. HadGEM2-ES SnowCoverRF ve RCP8.5 Results (2050-2100)

  18. Projections for “Climate Indices” • 17 indices • 30 years mean • Map display

  19. HadGEM2-ES FD0 Climate Index RF ve RCP8.5 Number of Frost Days_ 30 years

  20. HadGEM2-ES Model- CDD Climate Index RF ve RCP4.5 Number of Consecutive Dry Days_30 years

  21. Temperature Indices-I FrostDays ColdNights ColdDays ColdAirWave

  22. Temperature Indices-II SummerDays-25 Hot Nights HeatWave Hot Days SummerDays-35

  23. Precipitation Indices 1 DayMaxPrecip. ConsecutiveDryDays 5 DaysMaxPrecip. ConsecutiveWetdays HeavyPrecip.Day VeryHeavyPrecip.Day

  24. Water Potential • Total water potential • 1 GCM • 2 scenario

  25. Hydraulic Projections HecRAS model Forthisbasin, 3 controlcrosssections

  26. FlowContinuityProjections %5 RISK FOR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS %50 %95 Doğu Akdeniz River Basin Check Point: DAN_037_ KE 21000 HadGEM2-ES_RCP4.5

  27. FlowContinuityCurves Observed vs Model Comparison NO OVERESTIMATION/ UNDERESTIMATION OF THE RISKS Doğu Akdeniz River Basin Check Point: DAN_037_ KE 21000

  28. FlowContinuityProjections At Estuary RE-CONTROLLING THE CONSISTENCY OF THE PROJECTIONS

  29. MeanFlowrate at Estuary INTERMODEL COMPARISON

  30. Sectoral Vulnerability Probable adaptation measures to be proposed or be obliged:: Soft Measures FloodManagementPlans DroughtManagementPlans Greywaterincentives Goodagriculturalpractices Cropincentives Hard Measures Rainwaterharvesting Floodprotectionmeasures Gradualdecrease in distribution network losses

  31. Last Words.. • Climate Risk Management is vital in order to adapt. • Best adaptation measures are based on reliable impact and sectoral vulnerability analysis. • Climate change projections should be integrated at all levels of planning studies.

  32. Thank you for your attention Ayse Y. COSGUN aycosgun@ormansu.gov.tr

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