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Escaping the Complexity Dilemma

Escaping the Complexity Dilemma. Barry Newell & Katrina Proust The Australian National University. The Complexity Dilemma. 1. A feedback system is a set of parts (elements, actors) that interact to constrain each other ’ s behaviour.

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Escaping the Complexity Dilemma

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  1. Escaping the Complexity Dilemma Barry Newell & Katrina Proust The Australian National University

  2. The Complexity Dilemma 1. A feedback system is a set of parts (elements, actors) that interact to constrain each other’s behaviour. 2. The behaviour of such a system emerges from the interactions between its parts. 3. Therefore, you can’t optimise the behaviour of the system by optimising the behaviour of the parts taken in isolation. 4. You have to study the system as a whole. 5. But, when you try to do this, you are overwhelmed by the complexity of the system. The behaviour appears to be unmanageable.

  3. Escaping the Complexity Dilemma One way to escape the complexity dilemma is to look for shared features or attributes between things which, at first sight, seem to be very different. For example, if a number of apparently disparate behaviours can be shown to be just different versions of a single behaviour, there can be a significant reduction in the apparent complexity of the observed world.

  4. The Challenge Activities In system dynamics terms, your challenge was “construct a generic dynamic hypothesis”. 1. Constructing freeways 2. Substance abuse 3. The war on terror 4. The war on drugs 5. Taxing alcopops 6. Urban renewal 7. Constructing flood-control levees 8. Engineering the climate 9. Intensive irrigation development 10. Spraying ragweed with broad spectrum herbicides* 11. Using mould ‘killers’ in bathrooms* 12. Introducing shrimp to feed freshwater salmon* 13. Planting wheat on the Great Plains*

  5. System Dynamics System dynamicists construct models, mental or formal, that explain why things behave the way that they do). Causal theories. All such theories attempt to isolate invariant behaviours in the world. That is, behaviours that are observed in many different contexts and at many different times. Generic behaviours. All such theories attempt to provide simple explanations for these generic behaviours. Powerful explanations.

  6. System Dynamics “The feedback loop is the fundamental building block of system dynamics models, and is the basic unit of analysis and communication of system behaviour.” George Richardson, 1991, Feedback Thought in Social Science and Systems Theory, p. 4.

  7. System Dynamics Only two types of feedback: ReinforcingBalancing Positive Negative

  8. System Dynamics Only two types of feedback: Positive feedback is not necessarily good. Negative feedback is not necessarily bad.

  9. System Dynamics Only two types of feedback: Feedback can cause counterintuitive behaviour.

  10. System Dynamics Only two types of complexity: Detail Complexity(Combinatorial) Examples: Scheduling commercial aircraft movements at a large airport. Scheduling classes into classrooms, particularly when there is significant course flexibility. Dynamic Complexity (Feedback) Example: The Ragweed Problem

  11. The Ragweed Problem

  12. The Ragweed Problem But … leads to more ragweed next year. Why?

  13. The Ragweed Problem

  14. The Mould Problem CHOICE Magazine Shonky Awards 2012 It’s habit forming

  15. The Mould Problem

  16. Salmon and Shrimp Spencer et al. 1991, BioScience, 41, 14-21.

  17. Salmon and Shrimp

  18. Wheat on the Great Plains

  19. Fixes That Fail Generic Structure System Archetype

  20. Fixes That Fail Generic Structure System Archetype

  21. Fixes That Fail Signature Behaviour System Archetype

  22. System Traps and Opportunities Meadows considers System Archetypes to be “system traps and opportunities”. Traps – because they can cause unexpected outcomes, such as ‘fixes that fail’ – barriers to effective policy implementation. Opportunities – because, once recognised, they can help isolate powerful ‘leverage points’ – places in a system where small pushes can lead to large changes. Meadows, D.H., 2009, Thinking in Systems (Earthscan: London)

  23. Fixes That Fail Leverage Point

  24. Fixes That Fail Leverage Point

  25. Fixes That Fail Template 1 System Archetype

  26. Fixes That Fail Template 2 System Archetype

  27. Apply the Archetype The Fixes That Fail archetype can be used to structure a discussion of the similarities of the activities on the challenge list. 1. Working in groups, develop an explanation of the failure of one or more of the ‘fixes’ (Activity 1 to 9, inclusive). You can use the templates provided. 2. Select one of your archetypes for presentation and discussion. 3. Nominate a group member to make the presentation.

  28. Further Reading Meadows, D.H., 2009, Thinking in Systems: A Primer (Earthscan: London). A good general introduction to system thinking and system dynamics. Easy reading. Senge, P., 1990, The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of The Learning Organization (Random House: Sydney). The first published discussion of system archetypes, which he calls “Nature’s Templates.” Easy reading. Sterman, J.D., 2000, Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World (Irwin McGraw-Hill: Boston). A thorough discussion. Do not be misled by the word ‘business’ in the title—this is a solid textbook that will be valuable to readers in all disciplines. ~1000 pages.

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