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IPM Assessment and Risk: Framing the Issues and Vocabulary

IPM Assessment and Risk: Framing the Issues and Vocabulary . Scott M. Swinton Dept. of Agricultural Economics Michigan State University 4 th National IPM Symposium, Indianapolis, Apr. 8-10, 2003. “Assessment” for what purpose?. To motivate adoption of IPM methods

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IPM Assessment and Risk: Framing the Issues and Vocabulary

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  1. IPM Assessment and Risk:Framing the Issues and Vocabulary Scott M. Swinton Dept. of Agricultural Economics Michigan State University 4th National IPM Symposium, Indianapolis, Apr. 8-10, 2003

  2. “Assessment” for what purpose? • To motivate adoption of IPM methods • To evaluate the effects of investments in IPM

  3. Assessment to motivate adoption • Motivation programs aim to encourage by • Showing that goal is do-able • Rewarding progress • Industry-driven scoring systems of IPM assess to motivate adoption • Lots of points, so everyone feels successful • No negative points

  4. Crop rotation 20 Cover crop 10 Sprayer calibrated 10 Bt  ½ insect spray 15 Attended workshop 5 Owns veg mgt guide 10 …….. 320 POINTS IN ALL Pest, soil/water & education categories for points Used for certification Program assessment questions: How much IPM is 180 of 320 points? Do all combinations of 180 points have same effect on pesticide use? Net income? IPM point scoring system: Mass. IPM Guidelines for Potato Source: C. Hollingsworth et al. (1996)

  5. Assessment to evaluate programs • Evaluations seek to determine • Progress toward specific goals • Measurement of program net benefits • Public program assessments • Need clear, simple IPM definitions • Should be impartial • Can be threatening to those engaged in programs • Feedback permits learning about what works and what doesn’t, leading to better use of public funds

  6. Risk in IPM assessment • Risk matters in all IPM dimensions • Profitability • Health • Environmental • “Risk” can refer to • Danger (in an average sense) • Probability of undesired outcome

  7. “Risk” as a danger • “There’s a 2% risk of a damaging pest infestation.” • 2% is a mean point estimate of danger • Many factors affect probability of pest infestation 0 2% 4% 6%

  8. “Risk” in probabilistic sense • “Biological control may increase risk of damaging pest infestation.” • Refers to dispersion of probability distribution (from Pa to Pb) Pa Note: Mean of Pa = mean of Pb = 2% Pb 0 2% 4% 6%

  9. Avoiding Tower of Babel • Let’s be clear about intent in referring to “risk” and “assessment” • What about definitions of IPM? Even more clarity needed!

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