1 Science Applications International, Inc. 2 Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, California

1. An airborne portable expendable probe receiver/processor system for operational acquisition and transmission of ocean observations from WC-130J tropical cyclone flights Peter G. Black1,2,Daniel Eleuterio3, Jeff Kerling4, Robert E. Lee5 and Dong-Shan Ko6 1Science Applications International, Inc. 2Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, California 3Office of Naval Research, Arlington, VA 4Naval Oceanographic Office, Stennis Space Center, MS 5REL, Inc. and USAF (ret), Biloxi, MS 6Naval Research Lab, Stennis Space Center, MS 64th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Savannah, GA 1-4 March, 2010

2. ITOP/TCS10: Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific • An experiment to bring the latest in airborne, shipborne and moored buoy observational technology to bear on the Tropical Cyclone-Ocean-Intensity change forecast problem • This at a time when multiple agencies (NAVY, NOAA, NCAR- HFIP partners) are bringing coupled TC-ocean models on line which require observations of initial variables in both the atmosphere and the ocean • ONR has provided resources for the development of an operational airborne ocean probe deployment and dissemination system as a first step

3. ITOP/TCS10: Impact of Typhoons on theOcean in the Pacific: 3 Key Objectives • What is the three dimensional response of the ocean to typhoons? • How do ocean eddies affect this response? • How does the ocean response affect typhoon intensity?

4. TPARC/TCS08: Legacy for AXBT/Drifter WC-130J Aircraft Flights • Missions: 26 • Mission Flight Hours: 263 • High-Level Missions, 300mb: 12 • TC 700mb Missions: 12 • Buoy Deployment Missions: 2 • Tropical Cyclones: 4

5. TPARC/TCS08 Experiment Tools: • WC-130J Aircraft (2) • GPS dropsonde (750, ~ 26/flt) for • atmospheric profiling (high-altitude) • AXBT*- ocean thermal profiling (250, ~ 13/flt) • ADOS profiler/ Minimet drift buoys- 3D ocean structure, surface currents (24) • SFMR- surface winds • Radar Video Recording*- TC structure • *First used in TCS08

6. TPARC/TCS08 Experiment Objective: TEST HYPOTHESIS • Typhoon Intensity Change, including • Rapid Intensification (RI) and Rapid • Filling (RF), is driven by large-scale • conditioning: • Atmospheric environmental interaction • Oceanic Variability

7. TPARC/TCS08 Experiment Strategy: MORPHS into ITOP/TCS10 Strategy • Develop a MOBILE TC and ocean • observing system to define TC intensity • while observing background ocean • conditions and ocean-TC interaction

8. TPARC/TCS08 Commonality with ITOP/TCS10: Why Investigate Oceanic Role in TC Rapid Intensity Change and vice versa? • Variability in oceanic heat input to TC large: knowledge required for coupled models • Rapid Intensity Change (RI/RF) accounts for more than half of the large TC intensity forecast errors. • Strategic and economic consequences for un-forecasted RI/RF, which occur in only 15% of the TC life cycle, account for 85% of TC losses.

9. 50 m 100 m D26 AXBT’s help to adjust model-predicted eddy locations Ko, NRL Stennis

10. TCS08 Jangmi Sept, 2008 Track, Intensity Change JMA Aircraft Pmin Aircraft 1000 OHC Gradient 150 980 Landfall Rapid Intensification Wind Speed (kt) Pressure (mb) 100 960 Rapid Filling Kuroshio SATCON Intensity: Velden, CIMSS Hawkins, NRL 940 50 920 Rapid Structure Change 900 0 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/26 9/27 9/28 9/29 9/30 10/1 10/2 X X X Aircraft Vmax X

11. Eyewall open west, NW quad rainbands Disappear: DRY Slot Rapid Structure Change SSTA STY Jangmi 27 Sept, 2132 Bands Decay: Dry Slot Forms 27 Sept, 1134 28 Sept, 0006 Eyewall shrinks, asymmetric band structure forms 27 Sept, 0445 Cold, Shallow Time OHC Gradient Warm, Deep Concentric Eyewalls: Peak Intensity

12. Cold eddy bndry Jangmi COAMPS-TC Forecasts with TCDI Initialization Landfall 25 26 27 28 29 30 Jangmi track is well captured by both the coupled and uncoupled 5 km simulations over the first 3 days, but the forecast tracks deviate significantly from the observed over the last 24 h. The rapid intensity change (both intensification and weakening) in the coupled run compares more favorably with the observations than the uncoupled run.

13. Jangmi OHC 25-30 Sept 08 6-HR interval

14. Jangmi OHC 27 Aug Jangmi SSTA 2008 26 Sept Jangmi SSTA 2008 28 Sept

15. TCS08 Ocean Heat • Content Obs: • Concurrent with GPS dropsondes • Preview of ITOP2010 AXBT vs NRL Ocean Model Initial Conditions Ocean Heat Content (OHC) Model underpredicts high heat content TCS08 AXBT Locations Ko, NRL Stennis

16. AXBT System Components Pop-up keyboard, folding screen, computers, MK10 Audio recorders, MK-10, UPS Inverter Compact, portable rack-mount cases Clewless Operator- weak link C

17. WC-130J AXBT Photos

18. Loading AXBT Chute AXBT Probes and Cases Launching AXBT Receiving/Processing AXBTs - Lou WC-130J AXBT Photos

19. Data Processing 1) 2) 3) JJXX 01088 2253/ 11125 14126 88888 00296 44295 65292 84287 99901 03280 23274 36271 45263 53258 63247 69239 73231 80226 83222 86211 87205 92190 99902 01180 05177 09164 11158 20152 33148 38147 45138 49135 54130 64125 92113 99903 07105 25098 46092 73089 99904 38085 99905 91069 99907 18062 99909 15053 AF53

20. Science CONCLUSIONS • There is a strong relation between TC Rapid • Intensity Change, warm/cold ocean eddy boundaries and differing TC-ocean interaction in those regions- likely a function of storm size, intensity, speed of motion and other factors • ITOP/TCS10 promises to advance our understanding of ocean forcing and TC response through a further advance in observational technology- combining airborne, moored, ship-based and AUV platforms

21. Operational CONCLUSIONS As COUPLED TC prediction models are implemented, improved initial TC ocean profile data will become as important as initial atmospheric dropsonde data both in the environment ahead of the TC and within the TC. A prototype system for AXBT and other profiler deployment and real-time processing is now available for operational testing as resources become available.

22. END