Will Human Interpreters be Out of Fashion Soon?

1. Will Human Interpreters be Out of Fashion Soon? Elka Popova August 9, 2006

2. Agenda • Speech-to-Speech Translation: Definitions and Market Segmentation • Pioneers in Speech-to-Speech Translation • Evaluation of Alternative Solutions • How is the Market Going to Evolve • Who Needs Speech-to-Speech Translation • Are Translators and Interpreters Going Away

3. S2S Translation Device and Software Markets: Segmentation and Definitions Segmentation is Based on Target Markets and Applications Portable Devices: Definition: Handheld devices specifically designed for S2S translation Vendors: Voxtec (Phraselator) Ectaco (SpeechGuard series), IWT (VRT), SpeechGear (Endurance Tablet PC), Capinfo, NEC, other. Target market: Mobile individuals needing hands-free, eyes-free translation any time, anywhere, typically on the road and when the presence of a live interpreter is not feasible. Price range: $400-$6,000/ device Software for Laptops, PCs and Servers: Definition: Software that can be uploaded on a larger computing device for device-based or network-based S2S translation. Vendors : Sehda (S-Minds), SpeechGear (Interact), BBN, Spoken Translation, other Target market: Organizations or groups of people that have frequent interactions with non- native speakers at a certain location (hospital, police department, etc.) Price range: $995-$4,000 Software for Portable Devices: Definition: Software that is downloadable or on a chip or flashdisk and is specifically designed for compact computing devices such as PDAs, tablet PCs or mobile phones. Vendors: SpeechGear (Interpreter), Sehda, BBN, other Target market: Mobile individuals needing hands-free, eyes-free translation any time, anywhere, typically on the road and when the presence of a live interpreter is not feasible. Price range: $100-$4,000

4. Introduction to the Competition S2S Translation Market Uni-Directional/Dictionary – fixed phrase: Bi-Directional Phrase-Based Bi-Directional Free-Form DOMAIN SPECIFIC • Ectaco/Lingvosoft • VoxTec • IWT • Polyglot • SpeechGear • VoxTec • BBN • NEC • CapInfo • Sehda • SRI International • CMU • USC FREE - FORM Component Suppliers • Spoken Translation (STI) • SpeechGear • SAKHR <–> SpeechGear • Word Magic <–> STI

5. What is Available Today Ectaco’s Partner P800 talking dictionary series Spoken Translation’s Converser VoxTec’s Phraselator Sony’s Talkman Ectaco’s Travel SpeechGuard series SpeechGear;’s Endurance Tablet PC

6. Software vs Device

7. Phrase-Based vs. Statistical A third way? • Many companies are looking at a synthesis of phrase-based and statistical translation technologies • Hoped that this will allow for the greater accuracy of phrase based technology, while some of the flexibility of statistically based technology

8. Unidirectional vs. Bidirectional Is Unidirectional Inferior? • Currently S2S technology is generally being used in directional conversations ex. ‘Get out of the car’ • In most current S2S scenarios, unidirectional solutions can provide all the interpretation ability necessary. • Bidirectional value add will come when looking at new markets with more symmetrical interaction requirement.

9. Market Evolution: Portable Devices & Software • 2009-2010 Impact: • Growing consumer adoption • Price declines and market awareness drive penetration of commercial apps • Business models mature • 2007-2008 Impact: • Further penetration of each vertical with more language pairs • Early trials with new verticals • Declining investment by military • Distribution channels develop • 2006 Impact: • Early successes with law enforcement, first response and fire fighters • Consumer adoption • 2005 Impact: • Growing ASR, TTS and MT expertise • U.S. government subsidies for military use • Early trials with public safety organizations • ASR-enabling of consumer translation devices

10. Market Evolution: Stationary Systems & Software • 2009-2010 Impact: • Early penetration of education and other verticals • Price declines foster volume purchases and vice versa • Business models mature • 2007-2008 Impact: • China drives deployments in travel/hospitality for Olympic games • Early adoption by service providers • Declining investment by military • Developing distribution channels • 2006 Impact: • Continued trials and early penetration of healthcare (new regulations in U.S.), law enforcement and social services • Commercialization of new products and new language pairs • 2005 Impact: • Growing ASR, TTS and MT expertise • U.S. government subsidies for military use • Early trials with public safety organizations

11. First Wave of Applications

12. First Wave of Applications (Cont.)

13. Second Wave of Applications • New verticals are being investigated • Product development though is relatively preliminary when compared to the First Wave

14. Human Interpreters – to Be or Not to Be? • Technology is not mature yet (low accuracy, few available language pairs, etc.) • Technology cannot rival human understanding and interpretation of cultural differences and nuances in meaning (context-dependent expressions, metaphors, irony) • S2S translation solutions will fill a gap in interpretation, rather than replace existing services (dangerous conditions, on-the-spot, on-demand interpretation, inexpensive interpretation assistance for travelers, etc.)