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The perfect storm:

The perfect storm:. Are your clients prepared for the longevity revolution?. Agenda. The perfect storm Life expectancy past and present Medical advances Life expectancy in future More than ever, a long term business Our solution. The blurring line between science and science-fiction.

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The perfect storm:

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  1. The perfect storm: Are your clients prepared for thelongevity revolution?

  2. Agenda • The perfect storm • Life expectancy past and present • Medical advances • Life expectancy in future • More than ever, a long term business • Our solution

  3. The blurring line between science and science-fiction

  4. The perfect storm • Exponential advances in • Biotechnology • Nanotechnology • Robotics and AI • Transformative demographic shift as baby boomers enter retirement

  5. The law of accelerating returns

  6. The law of accelerating returns • First life forms took billions of years to evolve • First technological steps - sharp edges, fire, the wheel - took tens of thousands of years • 19th century saw more change than in previous 9 centuries • The first 20 years of 20th century saw more change than entire 19th century • The internet did not exist barely a decade ago • Rate of progress now doubling every decade

  7. “We won't experience 100 years of technological advance in the 21st century; we will witness in the order of 20 000 years of progress (by today's rate)” Ray Kurzweil, Inventor and Futurist

  8. Life expectancy past and present

  9. Historic life expectancy • In the 20s a thousand years ago • 37 in 1800 • Now pushing 80 • Life expectancy at birth more than doubled over the last 200 years

  10. Life expectancy explained • The expected number of life years remaining at a specific age • Not just one number • Life expectancy at birth vs. age 65 • Varies between different countries • General vs. insured population • Just an average

  11. Frequency distribution Assumptions: Male aged 40, non-smoker, best rates.

  12. Frequency distribution Assumptions: Male aged 40, non-smoker, best rates.

  13. Frequency distribution Assumptions: Male aged 40, non-smoker, best rates.

  14. Frequency distribution Assumptions: Male aged 40, non-smoker, best rates.

  15. Medical advances

  16. Medical advances timeline • Modern medicine • Lung circulation • 1st blood transfusion • Vaccination • Germ theory • Aspirin 1842 1816 1870 1796 1590 910 1553 1818 420 BC 1899 1895 • ID smallpox • Microscope • Stethoscope • X-rays • Anesthesia

  17. Medical advances timeline • Blood types • Blood transfusion • Pacemaker & polio vaccine • Kidney transplant • Heart transplant • Penicillin 1954 1936 1928 1922 1906 1953 1952 1907 1901 1967 1963 • DNA discovered • Discovery of vitamins • Insulin • Lobotomy • Lung and liver transplant

  18. Medical advances timeline • New cancer drugs • CT scanner • 1st artificial heart • Stem cells from skin cells • 1st face transplant 2008 2003 1998 1996 1980 2007 1982 1971 2010 2010 • MRI scanner • Dolly • Human genome • Robotic surgery • 1st artificial life

  19. A peek into the future • Emerging technologies • A few controversial possibilities • In our lifetime? • Prepare to be amazed!

  20. Eric Schmidt, Chairman of Google “I spend most of my time assuming the world is not ready for the technology revolution that will be happening to them soon”

  21. Stem cell technology • Growing stem cells in a lab • Disease-in-a-dish • Dead brain cells? Just replace them • Would you like to order a liver, a heart?

  22. Nanotechnology • Ferry across the blood-brain barrier • Creating organic and synthetic nanoparticles • Robots in your bloodstream • Gotcha!

  23. Genetics • Human genome project • Gene therapy • DNA maintenance • Personalised treatment • Should I buy a pizza or have my genome sequenced today?

  24. Telemedicine • A one-hour cancer detector on your phone. No seriously • How Intel and GE will monitor your grandma • Beam me up Dr. Scotty – holograms in healthcare Cisco's virtual doctor will see you now.

  25. Assistive devices • The mouse’s days are numbered – control your laptop with your eyes • Speak and I shall obey – voice commands for your home appliances • Brain-computer interfaces Neurons and computers: they mix!

  26. Amanda Boxtel, who has been in a wheelchair for 19 years, gets up and walk across a stage with the help of an exoskeleton.

  27. Dave MacCalman, a New Zealand quadriplegic, takes his first steps in more than 30 years.

  28. Artificial intelligence • They beat us in chess • Then they beat us in a quiz game • Now they are taking on healthcare • The next frontier? IBM’s Watson trouncing the competition in Jeopardy

  29. The fountain of youth • Slowing down aging • Reverse and ultimately prevent aging? • Homo Evolutis My, what long telomeres you have!

  30. Life expectancy in future

  31. Exponential increase in life expectancy?

  32. The pace of change has accelerated

  33. Life expectancy at retirement has probably changed more in the past 10 years than in the previous 100 years

  34. See how life expectancy is bound to increase even when taking a conservative, linear view

  35. Impact of 1.5% mortality improvement

  36. Impact of 1.5% mortality improvement

  37. Impact of 1.5% mortality improvement

  38. Impact of 1.5% mortality improvement

  39. What happens if life expectancy continues to increase at an exponential rate?

  40. More than ever a long-term business

  41. Changing financial planning landscape

  42. Financial planning implications • Assumed age at death in FNA? • Assumed retirement age? • Expiry age of risk benefits? • How do you provide for living a long but costly life with an illness? • How do you ensure sustainable premiums?

  43. Changing financial planning landscape • Longevity

  44. Our solutions

  45. Our solutions • Some medical advances are to avoid disease • Other advances are to aid people with disease • Risk of outliving capital applies to both

  46. Our solutions • Solutions for clients who do not claim • Reward for saving and protecting with us • Claim event for surviving to age 80 • Solutions for clients who claim • Point one above, plus • Critical illness solution that keeps on paying • Disability benefits that protect until age 100

  47. Conclusion • Life expectancy has increased significantly • Mind-boggling medical advances • How much longer are we going to live? • Profound implications for financial planning • The solution

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