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Moldova’s Economy and IMF Program Tokhir Mirzoev, IMF Resident Representative September 2012

Moldova’s Economy and IMF Program Tokhir Mirzoev, IMF Resident Representative September 2012. Outline. Economic background IMF program Policy issues. The Real Sector Has Slowed in H1 2012…. In H1 2012, GDP grew 0.8% y-o-y. (twelve-month growth rates, percent).

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Moldova’s Economy and IMF Program Tokhir Mirzoev, IMF Resident Representative September 2012

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  1. Moldova’s Economy and IMF Program Tokhir Mirzoev, IMF Resident Representative September 2012

  2. Outline • Economic background • IMF program • Policy issues

  3. The Real Sector Has Slowed in H1 2012… In H1 2012, GDP grew 0.8% y-o-y. (twelve-month growth rates, percent)

  4. Although non-agricultural activity has shown some revival since Q1 2012. Industrial Production, 2004-12 (Index, December 2003=100)

  5. Remittances have also slowed, although the budget revenues—in particular payroll taxes— are holding up helped by recent reforms. (year-on-year growth rates, percent)

  6. Financial Sector Growth Remains Healthy… Credit growth remained relatively strong, helped by accommodative monetary policy, although banks’ rising NPLs are a concern

  7. And Bank Interest Spreads Are Declining Both MDL and FX bank interest spreads have declined steadily over the past two years. Inflation also generally followed a downward path (Percent)

  8. IMF-supported Program • 5th program reviews to be completed on September 28: • Will enable disbursement of SDR 50 mln (USD 79 mln) • Total disbursements would be SDR 320 (of SDR 369 million) • Remaining disbursements will go to replenish NBM reserves • Planned missions: November (program review) • New program negotiations likely in November

  9. Looking ahead: outstanding policy issues • Fiscal strategy • Fiscal responsibility framework • Budget 2013 • Tax administration reform • Increase size and efficiency of capital spending and improve targeting of social assistance • Monetary policy is on the mark so far • Structural reforms: • Pension reform • Energy sector • Financial sector (shareholder transparency, BEM) • Privatization • Public administration reform

  10. Thank You!

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