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The effectiveness of the UN-ECE CLRTAP Heavy Metals Protocol emissions reduction (and costs)

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The effectiveness of the UN-ECE CLRTAP Heavy Metals Protocol emissions reduction (and costs). Based on a study by: Hugo Denier van der Gon, Maarten van het Bolscher & Antoon Visschedijk TNO Built Environment and Geosciences Presented by: Maarten van het Bolscher ,

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The effectiveness of the UN-ECE CLRTAP Heavy Metals Protocol emissions reduction (and costs)
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  1. The effectiveness of the UN-ECE CLRTAP Heavy Metals Protocol emissions reduction (and costs) Based on a study by: Hugo Denier van der Gon, Maarten van het Bolscher & Antoon Visschedijk TNO Built Environment and Geosciences Presented by: Maarten van het Bolscher, Netherlands Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  2. Contents • Aims • Structure and scope of the study • Methodology • Results • Inventory / projections • Scenarios and Contribution of source sectors • Country specific data • Conclusions Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  3. Aims of the study • Increase quality of emission inventories and projections (in countries); • Evaluate the emission reductions achieved by the protocols; • Identify the (relative) importance of sources for a second step in reducing the release of Heavy Metals into the environment; • Provide input for predictive modeling of environmental distribution, exposure of ecosystems, source–receptor relationships Choices and/or Limitations of this study: • no re-emissions or illegal emissions -> underestimation of “real” emissions • No in-depth review of emission factors • Official emissions “overrule” expert emissions Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  4. Structure of the study • Phase I • For 3 priority HM (Cd, Pb, Hg) + 6 HM • Emission inventory for 2000 and projections for 2010, 2015 and 2020 • Emission reduction due to implementation of the HM Protocols • Indicate key sources to select options for measures + reductions • Phase II • Assess emission reduction and costs of options for a second step in the HM/POP Protocols Finalized in 2006 Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  5. Scope Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  6. Scope Sectors 1_PHP Public heat and power 2_RCO Residential, commercial and other; 3_IND Industry; Includes both combustion and process emission; 4_SPU Solvent and product use; 5_ROT Road transport 6_NRT Non-Road transport 7_WAS Waste disposal 8_AGR Agriculture; Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  7. Methodology • Compile an emission inventory for the year 2000 based on: • Official EMEP data and if not available calculated TNO estimates have been used • Combine year 2000 inventory with scenario’s (e.g. IIASA CAFÉ scenario) to generate projected emissions (2010-2015-2020) • Distribute emissions over grid to make emission maps for modelling • Key source analysis of remaining emissions upon full implementation of protocols • List possible measures to reduce remaining emissions Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  8. Results: UNECE-Europe Year 2000 emission inventory of 9 HM and projected emissions following two scenarios a) 1990 data taken from Berdowski et al. (1997a) for indicative comparison. Countries not covered by Berdowski et al. are represented by their year 2000 emissions; b) NA = Not Available. • Based on officially submitted country emissions and TNO estimates to achieve completeness of countries and substances by sector. • BL_CLE_CRHM (Current Legislation and Current Ratification of HM protocol) • BL_CLE_FIHM (Current Legislation and Full Implementation of HM protocol) Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  9. Relative change projected HM emissions for UNECE-Europe compared to year 2000 for two scenarios Current Legislation & ratification (CRHM), all emissions will decline except for Cr. The increase in Cr emissions is due to a projected activity increase for Nickel production in countries that have not ratified the HM protocol. Full Implementation (FIHM) the projected emissions of all HM decline sharply except for Hg because most measures implemented are based on limit values for dust emissions and Hg emissions are largely gaseous Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  10. Relative contribution of source sectors to remaining HM emissions upon full implementation of the HM protocol by all UNECE-Europe countries 2020. The key source analysis allows a more detailed break down of the remaining contribution by species Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  11. Preliminary assessment of measures to further reduce HM emissions after FIHM based on key source analysis Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  12. Source sector contributions to cadmium emissions in the year 2000 and projected year 2020 contribution assuming full implementation in UNECE-Europe. Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  13. Remaining contributions to Cd emissions in UNECE Europe 2020, full implementation of HM Protocol. Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  14. See Excel sheet Country (Group) Results: • Emissions increase going from 2000 to 2020 • Full Implementation -> major emission (~50%) reductions are achieved • Country specific inventory data Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  15. Conclusions Phase I • Industrial combustion & processes followed by Public heat and power generation are the most important sectors for HM emissions to air; • There are regional differences in the relative importance of source sector contributions; • Upon full implementation of the HM protocol the emissions of all HM are considerably reduced (20-60%) compared to the year 2000 except for Hg; • EU legislation covers regulations in HM Protocol; • Hg is mostly emitted in the gaseous phase and is poorly mitigated by the currently proposed measures that focus on particulate / dust emissions -> needs specific attention! Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  16. Side effect: PM emission reduction due to full implementation HM Protocol Compared to 1995 total European PM emissions (CEPMEIP) full implementation may result in the estimated reductions of; • TSP ~ 3.7 Mt or ~ 25% of total TSP • PM10 1.2 Mt or 16% of total PM10 • PM2.5 0.28 Mt or 6% of total PM2.5 • The largest reduction is achieved in the power generation sector. • Note:First autonomous measures are implemented (e.g. IPPC directive for the EC25) and than the additional PM reduction is quantified. If the procedure would be first HM protocol, than (other) autonomous measures the side effect of the HM Protocol on PM reduction is much larger. Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.

  17. Thanks for your attention • More detailed country data available • Report available on www.tno.nl/HM_POP ? Questions ? Workshop to Promote the Ratification of the UN-ECE CLRTAP HM Protocol. 14-16 May 2008, Yerevan, Armenia.