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Spreading System Dynamics to SMEs by using Generic Structures

This paper explores the application of system dynamics (SD) in small and medium enterprises (SMEs) using generic structures. It emphasizes the importance of the modeling process as a tool for improving decision-making rather than merely focusing on individual models. Through an analysis of case studies and modeling experiences, this work discusses validation processes, data availability, and the benefits of generic models. It highlights the significant role of user contributions in refining models and enhancing comparability in scientific discourse, fostering practical implementations within the SME sector.

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Spreading System Dynamics to SMEs by using Generic Structures

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  1. Spreading System Dynamics to SMEs byusingGenericStructures Katrin Hügel, Lukas Schmid & Marcel Loher Lisbon, 13. July 2010 24th European Conference on Operational Research

  2. Generic Models – Overview Canonicalsituation model Transfer accrossfields Self-containedmodels „Ratherthanstressingthesingle-model concept, itappearsthatweshould stress theprocessofmodelingas a continuingcompanionto, andtoolfor, theimprovementofjudgementand human decisionmaking“[ Forrester in System Dynamics Review Vol.1, No.1 1985] • General Insights systemarchtypes Case specificsolutions solve individual problem Transfer withinparticularfield assembledmodels (LEGO) abstractedmicrostructures

  3. Generic Models – pro & contra Validation

  4. Validation – Experienceswith SME Structureverification Experts SME Parameter verification Availabilityofdata model structure Extreme conditions Experts SME, experience? BoundaryAdequacy Availabilityofdata  Dimensional consistency donebymodellers Behaviorreproduction Availabilityofdata model behaviour BehaviorAnomaly Completeness?! BehaviorSensitivity Completeness?! Changedbehaviorprediction Experts SME policyimplications Policysensitivity Experts SME [coretestsForrester/ Senge, 1980]

  5. BenefitsexpectedfromGeneric Models Main structuresofthe model will bevalidated in general Every usercontributestesting: approvesconfidenceorimprovesthe model bymodifications Research on detailscontributestothegreater model Higher comparabilityoffindingsfacilitatesscientificdiscourse Acceptenceofmodelsbyscientificproof Facilitatesimplementationofnewfindings in practicaluse ? FEASEBILITY

  6. Examplefrom Engineering: ActivatedSludgeProcess

  7. ActivatedSludge Models: Development variousmodellingapproaches International Organisation WaterPolution Research & Controllestablished a Task Group on Mathematical Modelling for Design and Operation ofactivatedsludgeprocesses 1987 ActivatedSludge Model (ASM) No.1 published ASM No. 2 published, containing an additional process (biologicalphosphorusremoval) ASM No. 3 published, revisedversionof ASM1 2005 Additional Task Group on Good Modelling Practice (GMP), takes care for approriate use of ASM in professional life

  8. ActivatedSludge Model 3: Tab1. Stoichiometricmatrixandcompositionmatrixof ASM3 Tab2. Kinetic rate expressionsof ASM3 Tab 3. Typicalvaluesofkineticparameters (21 parametersprovidedasexamples) Tab 4. Typicalstoichiometricandcompositionparameters (15 parametersprovidedasexamples)

  9. Conclusiones & Prospects • severalfindingsargueforfeasebilityofgenericmodels • genericmodelingdoes not conpromisefocus on modelingprocess • highexpectationsjustify time andeffort Lead organisationequallyinterested in researchandpracticalimplementationofmodels • solveproblems, compromising SD application in real life • enhenceeffectiveness & efficiencyofresearch • enablesdiscoursebetweenresearchand real lifeapplication Preconditions: • Task groupconsistingofrespectableresearchers • Realisticexpectationsconsidering time table (5-15 a) andvalueofthe model

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