An overview of fertilizer situation in the context of food crises

1. An overview of fertilizer situation in the context of food crises Market friendly ways to address fertilizer access by farmers

2. World fertilizer prices

3. Outlook • Fertilizer prices cannot be expected to fall until a new investment cycle reaches fruition and supply again matches demand. Even then, after 3 or 4 years, nitrogen fertilizer prices will remain high if the energy prices continue to hover at their current level. • Similarly, phosphate fertilizers, particularly diammonium phosphate (DAP), will remain high due to higher costs of quality phosphate rock and sulfur.

4. Grain prices

5. Cereal yields in different regions

6. Per-Hectare Fertilizer Use by Markets and Economic Regions, 2005/06 (kg/ha)

7. Intervention strategy • Farmers access to improved seed and fertilizer at affordable prices together with technology adoption, human capacity improvement, and access to trade credit provide the most rapid means of productivity response and supply chain development and are appropriate to this crisis situation. • Supply chain infrastructure investment in research, transportation, and services are also required but are longer term in nature. • The objective of any fertilizer crisis intervention should now be to attempt to at least maintain fertilizer use at previous levels while encouraging or at least not disrupting progress made toward competitive market system build over years with donors investment

8. Fertilizer Price in Kyrgyzstan

9. Fertilizers importation through private sector

10. Fertilizer Requirements for Kyrgyzstan-2008 in Mt 2008 Requirements: 228,500 Breakdown by types of fertilizer: • Nitrogen- 133,000 • Phosphate- 59,000 • Potassium- 36,000 Imported: 95,000 (41, 6% of needs) Negative balance: 133,500

11. Sustainable land management • Sustainable land management can only be achieved through the judicious use of both organic and inorganic fertilizer materials. • Integrated Soil Fertility Management (ISFM) practices implemented by IFDC in different parts of the World has demonstrated that when smallholder farmers utilize locally available organic matter and apply sufficient plant nutrients in the form of mineral fertilizers, threefold increases in crop yields can be obtained in a cost-effective manner with value: cost ratios above 3.5 and farm incomes increased by 70%.

12. www.ifdc.org Integrated Soil Fertility Management: Effect of Integrated Use of Fertilizer and Soil Amendments Improves in Time t/ha • ISFM • control year

13. Wheat fields with no and fertilizer application

14. Fertilizer and yields of main crops

15. Fertilizer and Farmers’ incomes

16. Evolution of Maize Yield in Maize+NPK/ + Crop Rotation Schemes

17. Evolution of Wheat Yield in Wheat+NPK/ + Crop Rotation Schemes

18. Suggestions: • More investment (both short and long term) is needed by donors to address agri input shortage and further develop input markets • Food crises should not be considered out the context of long term agricultural development in Kyrgyzstan

19. Market friendly approaches to address fertilizer shortage in short term run-Vouchers • Input voucher programs are a pro-poor, market-friendly means of providing either direct “market-smart” subsidies or crop production credit to resource-poor farmers or ensuring emergency market recovery • Integral characteristics of voucher programs are the provision of technical assistance and training to both the recipient farmers and private sector agro-dealers and the targeting of voucher recipients. • The vouchers are not used just to supply free or subsidized fertilizer or other inputs

20. Suggestion for long term investment in fertilizer sector • Feasibility study in construction a Nitrogen fertilizer plant in southern Kyrgyzstan • Building a fertilizer blending facility (Blended fertilizer in addition to higher nutrient values is cheaper on nutrient basis) • Phosphate rock deposits (Studies and analysis done by IFDC)

21. Thank you!