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Class 2000-C Capstone Project

Class 2000-C Capstone Project

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Class 2000-C Capstone Project

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  1. Class 2000-C Capstone Project Group III Randy Midgett, Carmen Cordoba, Michael Pope, Mike Birmingham

  2. What’s Your Opinion? Do you think legalized gambling in the form of a state lottery should be legal in all 50 states? Raise hands fore/against 350 Million $$ Powerball !!!

  3. Statement of the Problem Can the DoD help set the information agenda in regards to what the public thinks about in terms of U.S. military and national security issues?

  4. Overview • Public confidence highest in 25 years • Military consistently ranks highest • Tailhook, Aberdeen, Lt. Flin, no affect • Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Kosovo - Presidential

  5. Overview • Defense spending lowest % of GNP • Since 255billion low in 1995, now excess of $300 billion FY 2001 • Americans support increase

  6. Poll Data - Budget Amount Too Little About Right Too Much No Opinion 28% 35% 32% 5% 26% 45% 22% 7% 17% 38% 42% 3% 9% 36% 59% 5% 1999 1998 1995 1990

  7. PA Perspective • Decline of military experience in congress • Possible negative impact on appropriations • Public Opinion can impact congressional voting on Mil. issues

  8. PA Perspective • PA develop, improve, maintain public understanding • Law prohibits PA PR campaigns • PA activities to general public = increased public confidence • Congressional voting will reflect

  9. Theory I - Public Opinion • Twain - “…voice of God” • Lincoln - “…everything…” • Madison - “…I know Kamchatka…”

  10. Theory I - Public Opinion • Mydar, 1968 - A diversity of open minds, shapeable • Chisman, 1976 - The idea of public opinion is closely related with democracy.

  11. Theory II - Agenda Setting • Lippman, 1922 - media provides view of outside world • Long, 1958 , Lang & Lang, 1959 - media has power over what’s talked, thought and felt • Cohen, 1963 - “…media tells people what to think about”

  12. Theory II - Agenda Setting • Funkhouser, 1973 - found correlation between public issues and newsmagazine issues • Severin & Tankard, 1997 - Public’s interest setting agenda

  13. Hypotheses - I H1 - Military Public Affairs communications campaigns positively influence media agenda-setting.

  14. McGuires Theoretical Foundations of Campaigns • Communication persuasion • Change beliefs, attitudes, behaviors • “Input/output” matrix

  15. McGuires Theoretical Foundations of Campaigns • Input • sources, messages, channels, receivers, intent • Output • endpoints • determine success

  16. DoD Public Affairs Guidance • PAG (5405.3) • coordinated response of public interest at any level • Identifies spokesperson(s), outlines themes Q/A, media coverage (active/passive)

  17. Case Study • USA Sexual Harassment • Tailhook • Rebuild trust • Recover recruits • Retain independence

  18. Case Study • Communication Methods • Open communication • Cultivate confidence • Framework expectations

  19. Case Study • Communication Methods • Spoke on networks • 212 live interviews • 223 post visits

  20. Case Study • Communication Results • Enhanced public standing • Female recruiting up • Re-enlistment up

  21. Method • Content Analysis - Opinion of Military vs. Media Content • USA Today, WSJ, NY Times, Wash. Post, Chicago Trib, LA Times - 1990 - 99 • PAG issues • Re-enlistment up

  22. Method • Seven-step process (Kaid & Wadsworth, 1989) • Article placement • Lag-time study (Stone & McComb, 1981)

  23. Hypotheses II H2 - Defense appropriations are positively correlated with public opinion of the military

  24. Discussion • Results • Mil. PA communication campaigns positively influence media agenda-setting • Defense appropriations are positively correlated with public opinion of the military

  25. 1990 1995 1999 78,479 63,268 65,309 99,977 76,873 81,881 99,420 73,932 76,905 13,126 21,120 23,198 18,366 14,169 15,271 Some Facts - DoD Budget Army Navy Air Force Agencies Defense-Wide Total 292,999 255,652 262,564 (in billions)

  26. Poll Data -Confidence in Government Military Congress President Great Deal Quite a Lot Some Very Little None N/O 34% 34% 26% 6% * * 9% 17% 51% 21% 1% 1% 23% 26% 30% 19% 1% 1% (Gallup, July 1999)

  27. Combine Great Deal/Quite a Lot (10 yr.) Military Presidency Congress 68% 49% 26% 64% 53% 28% 60% 49% 22% 66% 39% 20% 64% 45% 21% 64% 38% 18% 68% 43% 18% 69%50%18% 85% 72% (MAR) 30% (OCT) 18% 68% N/A 24% 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990

  28. Comparison Opinions & Budgets $292,999 - $255,652 - $258,537 - $262,564 DoD budget (in billions) 1990 Public Confidence - President - N/A

  29. Further Study • Content Analysis