This report, presented by experts in golf property analysis, explores the current state and future prospects of the golf course market. Key topics include market consolidation, financing challenges, and pricing trends in golf properties. The discussion covers geographical hotspots, consumer behavior, and the strategic repositioning of golf courses. With insights from leaders in the industry, the report highlights opportunities in upscale private clubs and daily fee markets, addressing the impending changes that may shape the golf landscape in the coming years.
01 / 80The Future for Golf & Golf Course Property
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The Future for Golf & Golf Course Property
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The Future for Golf & Golf Course Property A Strategic Perspective • Laurence A. Hirsh, CRE, MAI, SGA,President Golf Property Analysts • Kurt Huseman, EVP Landscapes Unlimited, LLC Naples, FL March 24, 2003 Presented by: • Greg Cory, Sr. VP Economics Research Associates • Toby Davis, Kemper Sports Management • Gary Sandor, Sr. VP The Bonita Bay Group
Consolidation Scarcity of Financing Problem Markets & Sectors Opportunities Market Pricing & Values Near & Long Term Future of Golf Courses and Golf Development Where is the Golf Property Market Now?
Consolidation • Merging of Companies • Courses Disappearing • Survival of Strongest
Scarcity of Financing • Limited interest of Banks • Fewer Golf Specialty Lenders • Low Interest Rates, But… • Some renewed Equity Interest
Upscale Daily Fee Middle Market Private Clubs Florida Chicago Denver Frederick, MD Problem Markets & Sectors
New York Area MD & VA (DC Area) ? Repositioning of Properties Excess & Non-Strategic Assets of Big Management Companies Middle Market Private Clubs Opportunities
Market Pricing & Values • Buyers Say 7X Cash Flow • Sellers Say 10X Cash Flow • NGP Cap Rate 11.5%
The Future • Continued Profit Objectives • Market Segmentation • Market Repositioning • Industry Initiatives to Grow the Game • Some Courses Will Go Away • Consolidation
IndustryGoals • Reach 55 million participants by 2020 • 1 Million per Year • Reach 1 billion played
LongTermImpact • Pessimistic Outlook • Less than 200 openings per year • Optimistic Outlook • Back to the golf course per day projection • Most Likely • Between 200 and 300 opening per year
ShortTermOutlook • 2002 • Economy & 9/11 Tragedy • Market Tightened • 2003 • Similar to 2002 Results • 2004 • Continuing To Tighten
StrategicPlan • Increase Market Share • Continue to Focus on Renovation/Remodeling • Provide Owner’s with Alternative Delivery Methods • Continue to Develop New Markets
Regional oversupply Changing consumer demographics/behavior (?) Courses selling at below replacement cost Public courses defaulting on debt Daily fee conversions to private Downward pressure on fees and rounds CurrentMarketIndicators
WhatAboutGolfRealEstate? • Prospect traffic off, but better qualified • Individual projects may see price corrections • No widespread price erosion
1 5 2 6 4 3 • Bandon, OR • San Francisco, CA • Yorba Linda, CA • Kansas City, MO • Chicago, IL • Washington/Baltimore
Bandon Dunes, Bandon, OR • 2 courses/Pacific Ocean • Remote Location • Great Recognition • Golf Digest “Best New Public Course” ’99 & ’01 • Golf Magazine “#2” & “#9” • Golf Digest “Top 5 U.S. Golf Resorts” • Increasing Rounds/Revenues Bandon Dunes Golf Resort Bandon, OR
Harding Park, San Francisco, CA • New Renovation • Great Location/Conditions • Host PGA Tour Event • Re-Opening 7/03 • Expecting massive demand • Low green fee rates Harding Park Golf Course San Francisco, CA
Black Gold GC, Yorba Linda, CA • Shell Oil/City “vision” • Unique capital structure • Housing/golf • Great Location/Conditions • Opened Strong ’02 • Slipping Rounds/Revenues • New Supply Black Gold Golf Course Yorba Linda, CA
Chicago Park District, Chicago, IL • 6 Courses, 2 Ranges • Great Locations • Quality Conditions • Declining Rounds/Revenues • New Supply Chicago Park District Chicago, IL
Whiskey Creek, Ijamsville, MD • Great Location • Washington/Baltimore • Quality Conditions • Slightly Declining Rounds/Revenues • New Supply Whiskey Creek Golf Course Ijamsville, MD
Conclusions… • Best markets/locations • Increasing supply…flat demand • With exceptions • In order to compete…compelling story • What makes this facility special • “Marketing, marketing, marketing” • Sound capital structure • Low cost debt • Very patient equity