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The Future for Golf & Golf Course Property

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  1. The Future for Golf & Golf Course Property A Strategic Perspective • Laurence A. Hirsh, CRE, MAI, SGA,President Golf Property Analysts • Kurt Huseman, EVP Landscapes Unlimited, LLC Naples, FL March 24, 2003 Presented by: • Greg Cory, Sr. VP Economics Research Associates • Toby Davis, Kemper Sports Management • Gary Sandor, Sr. VP The Bonita Bay Group

  2. Where is the Golf Property Market Now? Laurence A. Hirsh, CRE, MAI, SGA, President Golf Property Analysts

  3. Consolidation Scarcity of Financing Problem Markets & Sectors Opportunities Market Pricing & Values Near & Long Term Future of Golf Courses and Golf Development Where is the Golf Property Market Now?

  4. Consolidation • Merging of Companies • Courses Disappearing • Survival of Strongest

  5. Scarcity of Financing • Limited interest of Banks • Fewer Golf Specialty Lenders • Low Interest Rates, But… • Some renewed Equity Interest

  6. Upscale Daily Fee Middle Market Private Clubs Florida Chicago Denver Frederick, MD Problem Markets & Sectors

  7. New York Area MD & VA (DC Area) ? Repositioning of Properties Excess & Non-Strategic Assets of Big Management Companies Middle Market Private Clubs Opportunities

  8. Market Pricing & Values • Buyers Say 7X Cash Flow • Sellers Say 10X Cash Flow • NGP Cap Rate 11.5%

  9. Market Pricing & Values

  10. Market Pricing & Values

  11. Market Pricing & Values

  12. Market Pricing & Values

  13. The Future • Continued Profit Objectives • Market Segmentation • Market Repositioning • Industry Initiatives to Grow the Game • Some Courses Will Go Away • Consolidation

  14. Builder’s Perspective Kurt Huseman Executive Vice President

  15. Golf Course New Course Construction Source: National Golf Foundation

  16. Rounds Played Source: National Golf Foundation

  17. Golf Course Supply Graph Under Construction In Planning Opened Source: National Golf Foundation

  18. IndustryGoals • Reach 55 million participants by 2020 • 1 Million per Year • Reach 1 billion played

  19. LongTermImpact • Pessimistic Outlook • Less than 200 openings per year • Optimistic Outlook • Back to the golf course per day projection • Most Likely • Between 200 and 300 opening per year

  20. ShortTermOutlook • 2002 • Economy & 9/11 Tragedy • Market Tightened • 2003 • Similar to 2002 Results • 2004 • Continuing To Tighten

  21. StrategicPlan • Increase Market Share • Continue to Focus on Renovation/Remodeling • Provide Owner’s with Alternative Delivery Methods • Continue to Develop New Markets

  22. Real Estate Advisory Perspective Greg Cory, Economics Research Associates

  23. Regional oversupply Changing consumer demographics/behavior (?) Courses selling at below replacement cost Public courses defaulting on debt Daily fee conversions to private Downward pressure on fees and rounds CurrentMarketIndicators

  24. WhatAboutGolfRealEstate? • Prospect traffic off, but better qualified • Individual projects may see price corrections • No widespread price erosion

  25. KiawahIsland

  26. HiltonHead

  27. KamuelaCoast

  28. Kohala - KonaCoast

  29. Princeville-Kauai

  30. PebbleBeach

  31. DailyUtilizationPattern

  32. SeasonalUsePattern

  33. Implications • Selective closures • Repositioning • Continued pressure on fees • The bottom may not yet have been found

  34. Management Company Perspective Toby Davis Kemper Sports Management

  35. Financing Consolidation Problem Markets Future Kemper Sports View Market Pricing & Values Opportunities

  36. 1 5 2 6 4 3 • Bandon, OR • San Francisco, CA • Yorba Linda, CA • Kansas City, MO • Chicago, IL • Washington/Baltimore

  37. Bandon Dunes, Bandon, OR • 2 courses/Pacific Ocean • Remote Location • Great Recognition • Golf Digest “Best New Public Course” ’99 & ’01 • Golf Magazine “#2” & “#9” • Golf Digest “Top 5 U.S. Golf Resorts” • Increasing Rounds/Revenues Bandon Dunes Golf Resort Bandon, OR

  38. Harding Park, San Francisco, CA • New Renovation • Great Location/Conditions • Host PGA Tour Event • Re-Opening 7/03 • Expecting massive demand • Low green fee rates Harding Park Golf Course San Francisco, CA

  39. Black Gold GC, Yorba Linda, CA • Shell Oil/City “vision” • Unique capital structure • Housing/golf • Great Location/Conditions • Opened Strong ’02 • Slipping Rounds/Revenues • New Supply Black Gold Golf Course Yorba Linda, CA

  40. Falcon Ridge, Lenexa, KS • Great Location • Suburban KC • Excellent Demographics • Quality Conditions • Declining Rounds/Revenues • New Supply Falcon Ridge Golf Course Lenexa, KS

  41. Chicago Park District, Chicago, IL • 6 Courses, 2 Ranges • Great Locations • Quality Conditions • Declining Rounds/Revenues • New Supply Chicago Park District Chicago, IL

  42. Whiskey Creek, Ijamsville, MD • Great Location • Washington/Baltimore • Quality Conditions • Slightly Declining Rounds/Revenues • New Supply Whiskey Creek Golf Course Ijamsville, MD

  43. Conclusions… • Best markets/locations • Increasing supply…flat demand • With exceptions • In order to compete…compelling story • What makes this facility special • “Marketing, marketing, marketing” • Sound capital structure • Low cost debt • Very patient equity

  44. Developer’s Perspective Gary Sandor Senior Vice President

  45. Golf Industry For Sale?

  46. Top Sales in 2002 Source: “Golf, Inc.,” February 2003; “Biggest Deals of 2002,” Bruce Buckly

  47. Top Sales in 2002 Source: “Golf, Inc.,” February 2003; “Biggest Deals of 2002,” Bruce Buckly

  48. The Golf Industry in Florida

  49. Source – University of Florida; “The Economic Impacts of the Florida Golf Course Industry”, John Hayou and Alan Hodges, 2001.

  50. Source – University of Florida; “The Economic Impacts of the Florida Golf Course Industry”, John Hayou and Alan Hodges, 2001.