1 / 44

Bet and Lose: Learning Mathematics or Loosing Money by Juergen Maasz and Hans-Stefan Siller

a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß. Bet and Lose: Learning Mathematics or Loosing Money by Juergen Maasz and Hans-Stefan Siller. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß. Hint: If you have questions or if you would like to get this presentation please mail juergen.maasz@jku.at. # 2.

sandro
Télécharger la présentation

Bet and Lose: Learning Mathematics or Loosing Money by Juergen Maasz and Hans-Stefan Siller

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Bet and Lose: Learning Mathematics or Loosing Money by Juergen Maasz and Hans-Stefan Siller

  2. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Hint: If you have questions or if you would like to get this presentation please mail juergen.maasz@jku.at # 2

  3. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß # 3

  4. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß MOTION FOR A EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT RESOLUTION on the integrity of online gambling (2008/2215(INI)) http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?pubRef=-//EP//TEXT+REPORT+A6-2009-0064+0+DOC+XML+V0//EN&language=EN # 4

  5. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Some facts (Germany 2007): Gambling – 28.000.000.000 Euro The German Goverment earns 4.250.000.000 Euro (taxes) Deutsche Hauptstelle für Suchtfragen e.V. About 220.000 pathologic gamblers http://www.dhs.de/web/datenfakten/gluecksspiel.php # 5

  6. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß In the United States in 1999 the National Gambling Impact Study stated "the high-speed instant gratification of Internet games and the high level of privacy they offer may exacerbate problem and pathological gambling" (Wikipedia) # 6

  7. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Danger? Why? An online gambler has pleaded guilty to stealing more than £1m from his employer to feed an "out-of-control" gambling habit (http://www.vnunet.com/vnunet/news/2160083/online-gambler-guilty-theft) # 7

  8. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß ICD Version 2007 Chapter V Mental and behavioural disorders (F00-F99) Habit and impulse disorders This category includes certain disorders of behaviour that are not classifiable under other categories. They are characterized by repeated acts that have no clear rational motivation, cannot be controlled, and generally harm the patient's own interests and those of other people. The patient reports that the behaviour is associated with impulses to action. The cause of these disorders is not understood and they are grouped together because of broad descriptive similarities, not because they are known to share any other important features. # 8

  9. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Excludes: habitual excessive use of alcohol or psychoactive substances ( F10 - F19 ) and impulse and habit disorders involving sexual behaviour ( F 65.- ) F 63.0 Pathological gambling The disorder consists of frequent, repeated episodes of gambling that dominate the patient's life to the detriment of social, occupational, material, and family values and commitments. # 9

  10. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß First Summary: There is “pathological” gambling The theme is about money, luck and illness Is this a theme for teaching mathematics? # 10

  11. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Yes, it is! General aims of teaching mathematics are Understanding the world better Becoming critical citizen Learning to use mathematics # 11

  12. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß How to start? There are different ways but students should learn to avoid gambling because of the high risks Folie # 12

  13. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Students should change their behaviour Therefore it is much better if they find out the important results their self This means: The best method is self organized learning! Folie # 13

  14. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß My proposal: A simulation of the situation including mathematical analyzing and reflecting results Let us organize a sport event, play bookkeeper, bet, document results, analyze them, and reflect our work Folie # 14

  15. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß A sport event? A simple simulation is O.K.! (kicking on toy goals) Dices are not a good idea! Why? Folie # 15

  16. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Bets on sport events depend on what is expected. Expectations are subjective and different. The expectation about the rolling dices are objective (we can calculate them) and equal # 16

  17. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Simulation? Kicking? # 17

  18. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Start: two players 10 kicks Hits: A 6 times B 3 times # 18

  19. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß And now? How much would you bet on A or B? And if you win – how money much do get paid from the bookkeeper? # 19

  20. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß First an very simple example: 30 students bet with 10 units game money each 20 bet on A (= 200 units) 10 bet on B (= 100 units) # 20

  21. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Bets on A 200 of 300 units Bets on B 100 of 300 units The money you get if you win is calculated by the “QUOTE” This is calculated by division: A = 300/200 = 1,5 (quote for A) B = 300/100 = 3 (quote for B) # 21

  22. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Assume A wins the match. What happens? 20 students get 10 * 1,5 = 15 units (together 300 units = all) If B wins, 10 students get 10 * 3 = 3o units (together 300 units = all) ...the other get NOTHING... # 22

  23. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß • Reflection after these first steps: • Calculating the quote is easy • high risk – high win • How is a bookkeeper really calculating? • How does he earn money? # 23

  24. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß How is a bookkeeper really calculating? Totalizator: after all bets are done Bookkeeper: in advance? # 24

  25. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß How does a bookkeeper earn money? a) Lucky winner – bad way b) Commission totalizator: 10% bookkeeper: ? Let us look into internet and calculate! # 25

  26. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß # 26

  27. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß First impression: A lot of different bets! We write down quotes: Rapid Wien versus Sturm Graz 1,47 : 3,95 : 5,95 (1 x 0) Calculating... # 27

  28. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Calculating... 1/1,47 = 0,68 1/3,95 = 0,25 1/5,95 = 0,16 0,68 + 0,25 + 0,16 = 1,09 A little less than 10% commission # 28

  29. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß How does a bookkeeper earn money? Most important: Find a „good“ first quote! Later: Change quotes while bets come in # 29

  30. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Why is it so important to find a „good“ first quote? Students find it out when they try to do it and to reflect the results # 30

  31. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß If students play the role of a bookkeeper they have to decide: Which quotes should they offer for the match A versus B??? Is it a good idea to deduce it from training results? # 31

  32. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß A: 6 hits B: 3 hits => 2 : 1 => Quote A: 1,5 (3:2) and Quote B: 3 (3:1) ??? # 32

  33. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Or: A will win always => Quote A: 1 (1:1) and Quote B: ??? (1:0) „about very high“ # 33

  34. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Students that play bookkeepers have double expectations What do they expect that betting people will expect? Is there any influence of the offered quote on the betting people? And how much do they like to earn? # 34

  35. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß My hint: let students try it, document it and analyze it. Together they should think about their action and the results. They will find good answers – maybe with a little help of the teacher. # 35

  36. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Possible results: A bookkeeper tries to have quotes like a totalizator? Why? A totalizator earns 10 % commission independent from the result! # 36

  37. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Possible results 2: What happens if a lot of people bet on B ? What happens if ALL people bet on A? # 37

  38. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Experiment: A bookkeeper expects, that 10% bet on B Quote: A: 1,11 B: 10 Quote including 10% commission Quote: A: 1 B: 9 # 38

  39. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Quote: A: 1 ??? People who bet on A get their money back if they win and nothing more – will they like this? => No commission? # 39

  40. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß We learn: High favourites are dangerous for bookkeepers! In other words: If the soccer match is like ALM versus Manchester United NO clever bookkeeper will offer bets # 40

  41. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Acceptable quotes must be > 1 Is there any rule for the max. quote? Yes: The bookkeeper must be able to pay the winners! Let the students calculate examples. # 41

  42. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Hint: Spread sheet is very useful! Let the students type in the formulas and let them use the spread sheet for experiments # 42

  43. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß One of many experiments: How fast should a bookkeeper react (=change quotes) if the bets show new tendencies? Answer: Very fast is very good! # 43

  44. a. Univ. Prof. Dr. J. Maaß Thank you very much for your attention! Juergen # 44

More Related