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Work Package 2 Building the Decision Support Tools

Work Package 2 Building the Decision Support Tools. WP2A7 Requirements analysis WP2A8 Construct the project development model WP2A9 Model validation. Requirements Analysis Requirements of consortium Who, where, when and how? Requirements of stakeholders

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Work Package 2 Building the Decision Support Tools

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  1. Work Package 2Building the Decision Support Tools

  2. WP2A7 Requirements analysis • WP2A8 Construct the project development model • WP2A9 Model validation

  3. Requirements Analysis • Requirements of consortium • Who, where, when and how? • Requirements of stakeholders • Engagement, demonstration and feedback – user led • Requirements of system/s • scope and functionality, limitations and future work.

  4. Levels of support – Basic, Moderate, Sophisticated.

  5. BioenNW – Combination of all three • 2 critical ‘Decision Support Systems’ • Identify regional opportunities (site assessment) • Assist with formulation of project development plans

  6. Component parts for potential site identification • Knowledge base – Directory of experts/BSCs • Library – key documents, articles, research etc • Stakeholder database • Decision Support Tool • Regional partners, projects, existing supply chains and infrastructure. • Suitability/availability of feedstocks • AD+ Pyrolysis configuration- Efficiency and quality of products. • Key operational variables and infrastructure requirements. • Potential efficiency –yields, energy, heat

  7. Components parts for assisting project development plans • Support • Case studies • Key Documents (legal, technical etc) • Directory (stakeholders and experts) • Decision support • Economic models • Logistics models • Technical models based on suitability and feasibility • Signposting of critical pathways/ timeframes/legislation etc at planning, construction, operation and decommission stages??

  8. Inform/educate stakeholders across supply chain • Enable individuals or organisations to connect (matchmaking) forming supply chains. • Aid the formulation of robust project development plans.

  9. Existing case studies • HAUC -business case AD+Pyrolysis, • SRE- EcoSon, • ABS /Invigour business case. • Existing information generated across project • Pyrolysis training day (Ulrich Wiess) • HAUC financials for AD • BSC questionnaires and responses (Fondaterra) • Existing and new tools – AD calculator, ABS finance model, BCU site ID, BCU/ABS process flow models • BSC launches and member recruitment • Document repository

  10. PESTLE Analysis • Political, Economic, Social, Technical, Legal and Environmental factors which require consideration at (and between) each stage of the supply chain. • Each consideration can be seen as a potential component part of ‘decision support’ and in turn an area where information needs to be gathered/generated within the project • Alternatively may highlight where gaps exist. • Data capture is cohesive and consistent across regions.

  11. See Handout!

  12. PESTLE Matrix Handout

  13. Completed Matrix will be used to ensure: • That we have captured all considerations important to individual regions and stakeholders? • That all elements critical to decision making processes have been considered and that specific data sets/information will be evolved consistently across all regions. • That there is a sufficient level of granularity within each category to provide tailored support according to regional conditions. • That any information/resources generated by the project (but not critical to decision support) can be captured and used to inform and educate stakeholders and potentially strengthen business case by signposting key documents or agencies. • That there is a clear picture of where, when and how data critical to decision support is being captured.

  14. Decision Support –Site identification and assessment using geospatial data (Dr Monika Solanki) • Decision Support/Support – Identifying, extracting and signposting critical information within text based resources – example policy documents (prof Craig Chapman) • Decision Support – Identifying an Integrating existing tools and databases & developing new tools/models – Example financial model (Aston Business School) • What Role will WP2 play in the development of project development plans – reducing risk and uncertainty (Aston Business School)

  15. DECISION SUPPORT – SITE IDENTIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT USING GEO-SPATIAL DATA Dr Monika Solanki

  16. DECISION SUPPORT/SUPPORT IDENTIFYING, EXTRACTING AND SIGNPOSTING CRITICAL INFORMATION WITHIN TEXT BASED RESOURCES EXAMPLE –POLICY DOCUMENTS Prof Craig Chapman

  17. Knowledge Engineering with Bioenergy Support Centers Markets, economics, business cases, policy and planning issues Knowledge discovery from text Knowledge capture from experts Interview transcripts Unstructured documents Natural Language Processing Text Mining Models Questions Answers Facts Events Entities Question-answering and decision-making models Data, ontology and knowledge base Decision Support Tools

  18. Knowledge Discovery for Decision Support Tools Unstructured text Structured text Semantic text

  19. Interactive Model for Business Case Analysis Production Data Economics Profit/Loss

  20. DECISION SUPPORT IDENTIFYING AND INTEGRATING EXISTING TOOLS AND DATABASES & DEVELOPING NEW TOOLS/MODELS EXAMPLE FINANCIAL MODELS (Aston Business School)

  21. Technology Integration • Retrofitting existing and / or multiple RET sites Multiple characteristics: • Financial viability and return • Risk and uncertainty in investment(s) • Risk appetite

  22. Technology Integration Simple Case: • Typical UK diary farm • c.10kWe CHP 3 options: • AD & Grid injection • AD &CHP • AD & CHP and Pyrolysis • Worst, expected and best cases

  23. Technology Integration Case 1: AD & Grid injection • Observations: • Not economical at this size • Maintenance costs are disproportionately large

  24. Technology Integration Case 2: AD & CHP • Observations: • Some activity in UK • Equity financed

  25. Technology Integration Case 3: AD & CHP & Pyrolysis • Observations: • Cost uncertainty • Lack of case and performance data • Sensitivity to market cost (fertiliser, pyrolysis products)

  26. WHAT ROLE WILL WP2 PLAY IN DEVELOPMENT OF PROJECT DEVELOPMENT PLANS REDUCING RISK AND UNCERTAINTY (Aston Business School)

  27. Release of DEVEX

  28. Evaluate and Expand PESTLE analysis Develop Case studies within regions Design user friendly data collection proforma Review/ conduct Gap analysis Determine interrelationships/Logic models Data collection by BSCs Review/ conduct Gap analysis Develop user interfaces for DSS Based on case studies and data collected develop ‘use cases’ Stakeholder Engagement to Demonstrate/ gain feedback Site ID and assessment DST Outputs Project development plan

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