NOAA, National Weather Service Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center Briefing

1. NOAA, National Weather ServiceMiddle Atlantic River Forecast Center Briefing 11am Wednesday, April 30, 2014

2. Key Message • Over 4 inches of rain has fallen in parts of Virginia already this week. Just in the past 24 hours over 2.5” was measured near Fredericksburg, VA. Additional heavy rain is forecast for much of the Mid-Atlantic region. • Several Middle Atlantic Rivers are forecast to experience flooding. A few will be at the moderate flood level while the majority stay in the minor flood level.

3. Timing of rain & flooding • Rain began on Monday and will continue till Thursday morning. • Although some coastal & tidal flooding has been occurring already, river flooding will begin today and may continue in spots into the weekend.

4. Rain on the ground • This shows the total amount of rain that has already fallen since Monday. The lightest shades of red are over 4”! Most of this fell in the past 24 hours. An observer near Fredericksburg, VA measured 2.64” just since Tuesday morning.

5. Additional Rain >3” 8am to 2pm today 2pm to 8pm today 2am to 8am Thu Total rain forecast from 8am today to 8am Thu 8pm today to 2am Thu

6. River Forecasts • Moderate Flooding is forecast for: • Chesapeake Bay at Bishops Head, MD • Millstone River at Blackwells Mills, NJ • Monocacy River near Frederick, MD at I-70 • Neshaminy Creek at Langhorne, PA • Potomac River at Point of Rocks, MD and at Georgetown/Wisconsin Ave Washington DC • Rappahannock River at Fredericksburg, VA

7. River Forecasts (MD, VA, WV, DC) • Minor flooding is forecast at: • Appomattox River at: Farmville, Matoaca & Mattoax, VA • Chesapeake Bay at Windmill Pt & Cambridge • Goose Creek near Leesburg, VA • James River at: Bremo Bluff, Cartersville & Richmond/Westham, VA • Potomac River at Lewisetta, VA & Little Falls, MD • Opequon Creek near Martinsburg, WV • Rapidan River at Culpeper, VA • Rappahannock River above Fredericksburg & at Remington, VA • Rivanna River at Palmyra, VA • Seneca Creek at Dawsonville, MD • Shenandoah River at Millville, WV • Washington Channel at SW Waterfront, Washington DC

8. River Forecasts (PA & NJ) • Minor flooding is forecast at: • Assunpink Creek at Trenton, NJ • Aughwick Creek at Shirleysburg, PA • Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, PA • Conestoga River at Lancaster, PA • Conodoguinet Creek near Hogestown, PA • North Branch Rancocas Creek at Pemberton, NJ • Passaic River at Pine Brook and Little Falls, NJ • Pequannock River at Macopin, NJ • Raritan River at Bound Brook, NJ • Rockaway River at Boonton, NJ below the reservoir • Schuylkill River at Philadelphia, Norristown & Pottstown, PA • Sherman Creek at Shermansdale, PA • Swatara Creek at Harper Tavern & Middletown and near Hershey, PA • Yellow Breeches Creek at Camp Hill, PA

9. MARFC Status • MARFC began 24 hour operations since 6:30am Tuesday, April 29. We will stay open again tonight and remain open until the flood threat has ended. • Next forecast update will be this afternoon. • MARFC is actively coordinating with our NWS Weather Forecast Offices and partners, such as the USACE & USGS.

10. Remember • This briefing is based on information from Wednesday morning, April 30th. River and rain forecasts may be updated at any time. Please monitor http://weather.gov/marfc for the latest information. • MARFC briefings focus on the larger inland river flooding. This may not be the entire flood threat. See info from your local weather forecast office for flash flooding, storm surge, river flooding in tidal reaches, etc..

11. Flood Inundation Maps Excellent resource to understand your flood risk. Shows coverage and depth of flood waters. Can be used to plan evacuation routes & travel. Available at http://water.weather.gov for these points: • Chenango River at Chenango Forks & Greene • Delaware River at: Belvidere, Easton, Frenchtown, Matamoras/Port Jervis, Montague, New Hope/Lambertville, Riegelsville, Stockton & Trenton • Passaic River at: Chatham, Clifton (Dundee Dam), Little Falls & Millington • Pequannock River at Riverdale • Pompton River at Pompton Plains • Saddle River at Lodi, NJ • Susquehanna River at: Bainbridge, Binghamton, Conklin, Harrisburg, Owego, Unadilla, Vestal & Windsor • Unadilla River at Rockdale, NY • Upper Saddle River at Saddle, NJ • West Branch Susquehanna River at Jersey Shore, PA

12. Turn Around Don’t Drown • Over half of all flood-related drownings occur when a vehicle is driven into flood water. The next highest percentage of flood-related deaths is due to walking into or near flood waters. • People underestimate the force and power of water. • Many of the deaths occur in automobiles as they are swept downstream. • 6” of fast-moving flood water can knock over an adult. It takes only two feet of rushing water to carry away most vehicles, including pickups and SUVs. • Flood waters may hide the fact that the road bed has been washed away. • Flooded roadways are particularly hard to see at night.

13. Need more info? • Contact your local NWS Weather Forecast Office • Binghamton, NY http://weather.gov/bgm • Blacksburg, VA http://weather.gov/rnk • Mt Holly, NJ http://weather.gov/phi • State College, PA http://weather.gov/ctp • New York City, NY http://weather.gov/okx • Sterling, VA http://weather.gov/lwx • Wakefield, VA http://weather.gov/akq • Email MARFC at: patricia.wnek@noaa.gov

14. Find MARFC Online at: • Homepage: http://weather.gov/marfc • Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.MARFC.gov • Twitter @NWSMARFC

15. Next MARFC Briefing • Unless forecasts change significantly, our next briefing will be issued by noon tomorrow, Thursday, May 1st.