presented by Henry (Rick) Sandri, Ph.D., Mineral Economics ECONOMICS of miningMinnesota Minerals Education WorkshopHibbing Community College, Hibbing MinnesotaJune 18, 2013
Rick Sandri – Background • Education • BS – Foreign Service, Georgetown University • MS – Applied Economics, American University • PhD – Mineral Economics, Colorado School of Mines • Work Experience • The World Bank – Economic Analyst • American Iron & Steel Institute - Economist • Booz Allen & Hamilton – Economic Consultant • BehreDolbear & Company – Economic Consultant • K & M Engineering & Consulting – Financial Consultant • Burlington Northern Inc. – Economist / Planner • Inco Limited – Planner – Business Development • Select Resources – President • Duluth Metals Ltd. – President & CEO • Vermillion Gold - President
Some General Definitions: • Economics– Economics is the social science that analyzes the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services as needed for mankind/ the efficient allocation of scarce resources. • Mineral Economics – Mineral Economics is the study of the business and economic aspects of natural resource extractionand use. • Natural Resources – Resources that occur naturally within environments that exist relatively undisturbed by mankind. • Renewable Natural Resources – Resources that can be replenished naturally, or with limited assistance, i.e. sunlight, air, wind, agricultural crops, timber, animals, etc. • Non-Renewable Natural Resources – Resources that form extremely slowly and those that do not naturally form in the environment; i.e. minerals , metals, energy sources, etc. • Ore – Any naturally occurring material that can be extracted at a profit, including all costs associated with environmental reclamation & restoration.
Non-Renewable Mined Metals & Minerals • Precious Metals – Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium • Base Metals – Copper, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Nickel • Ferrous Metals – Iron, Columbium, Molybdenum, Chromium • Light Metals – Titanium, Aluminum, Silicon • Industrial Minerals – Talc, Salt, Gypsum, Pumice, Quartz • Fertilizer Minerals – Potash, Phosphate, Sulfur, Vermiculite, • Gem Stones – Diamond, Ruby, Garnet, Sapphire • Construction Materials – Limestone, Granite, Marble, Sandstone • Energy Minerals & Materials – Coal, Peat, Oil Shale • Radioactive Minerals & Materials – Uranium, Thorium, Radium
Economics – The Study Of Choice As an individual, for example, you face the problem of having limited resources with which to live, as a result, you must make certain choices with your time and money. You'll probably spend part of your money on rent/ mortgage, energy, food and clothing. Then you might use some of the rest to purchase entertainment or a vacation. Some may go to education or savings. Economists are interested in the choices you make, and inquire into why, for instance, you might choose to spend your money on a new DVD player instead of replacing your old TV. They would want to know whether you would still buy a carton of cigarettes if prices increased by $2 per pack, $8 per pack, $20 per pack. The underlying essence of economics is trying to understand how both individuals and nations behave in response to certain material constraints.
Economics, including Mineral Economics, is made up of two basic fields of study: Micro Economics & Macro Economics Micro Economics – The study of the economic behavior of individual units of an economy (such as a person, household, firm, or industry) and not of the aggregate economy. Macro Economics – Study of the behavior of the whole (aggregate) economies or economic systems instead of the behavior of individuals, individual firms, or markets Natural Resource Economics (including Mineral Economics) – The study of economics as it applies to the natural resource industry and environment, including Micro and Macro Economics.
The Essence of Economics Supply, Demand & Price Supply - A fundamental economic concept that describes the total amount of a specific good or service that is available to consumers. Aggregate supply is the supply from all suppliers. Demand - An economic principle that describes a consumer's desire and willingness to pay a price for a specific good or service. Aggregate demand is the demand from all consumers. Price - A value that will purchase a finite quantity, weight, or other measure of a good or service. Price Equilibrium - The equilibrium price is the price where the goods and services supplied by the producer equals the goods and services demanded by the customers.
The Law of Demand The law of demand states that, if all other factors remain equal, the higher the price of a good, the less people will demand that good.
Demand & Price Example: Coffee Demand per Month
The Law of Supply The law of supply states that the higher the price of the good, the higher the quantity supplied to the market.
Supply Example: Cumulative supply of copper from 10 individual mines $ per Pound Supply Curve
Supply, Demand & Price Equilibrium When supply & demand are equal the economy is said to be at equilibrium. At this point, the allocation of goods is most efficient because the amount of goods being supplied is exactly the amount of goods being demanded.
Surpluses & Shortages Surpluses occur when supply exceeds demand (no longer in equilibrium) and shortages occur when demand exceeds supply (no longer in equilibrium). Over time the market will adjust to equilibrium.
Demand Curve Adjustment A movement along the demand curve will occur when the price of the good changes and the quantity demanded changes in accordance to the original demand relationship. In other words, a movement occurs when a change in the quantity demanded is caused only by a change in price, and vice versa.
Supply Curve Adjustment A movement along the supply curve will occur when the price of the good changes and the quantity supplied changes in accordance to the original supply relationship. In other words, a movement occurs when a change in the quantity supplied is caused only by a change in price, and vice versa.
A Change in Supply, Demand & Price A new equilibrium will be established with a change in supply and demand. This may or may not result in a new equilibrium price.
The Economics of Mining This is the traditional view of the competition between Environmental Concerns, Social Needs, and Economic Desires, resulting in a Sustainable Target Area.
The Economics of Mining However, this is the newer view of the “nested” competition between Environmental Concerns, Social Needs, and Economic Desires, resulting in much larger Sustainable Target Area. This is one of the major challenges in Natural Resource Economics.
The Economics of Mining Copper – As An Example • Crustal abundance – 68 parts per million (0.0068%) • First metal mined by humans – 8000 years ago • Used in the early development of civilizations • the Copper Age (3500 – 2300 BC) – tools & weapons • the Bronze Age (3300 – 1100 BC) – tools & weapons • Malleable metal used in pipe, wire, sheet and strip • Highly prized for its conductivity of electricity • Used as a monetary instrument • Biofouling& germicide element, prevents growth of biologicals
The Economics of Mining – Copper 2012 Copper Uses (Demand) 2012 World Copper Demand – 20,000,000 metric tonnes (44 billion pounds) of copper.
Where is Copper Found? Numerous countries, but most occurrences are small and uneconomic. Most active copper mines are clustered in geologic formations, such as the Chile-Peru-Ecuador-Colombia Porphyry Copper Belt.
The Economics of Mining – Copper 2012 Copper Supplies (Sources) 2012 World Copper Supply – 17,000,000 metric tonnes (34.5 billion pounds) of copper from new mines and 3,000,000 metric tonnes (6.6 billion pounds ) from recycling.
2% Copper – Medium –High Grade Mineralization 2 out of 100 parts (2%) are copper, the other 98 parts (98%) are waste. This is considered medium to high grade for copper . Mineral Occurrence in the Earth’s Crust verses Mineable Grades Aluminum 8.2% 49% Iron 6.3% 25% Titanium 0.6% 2% Nickel 0.009% 1% Copper 0.007% 0.3% Lead 0.001% 0.1% Platinum 0.00006% 0.001% Gold 0.00003% 0.0008%
Orebodies Are Not Perfect You Typically Cannot Mine 100% The extraction of ore usually results in the extraction of significant waste rock as well. This waste must be handled, and in some cases treated.
3:1 Waste to Ore Ratio 3 tonnes to the waste pile, 1 tonne to the plant for processing. This can alter the economics significantly. Higher grade is always preferred.
Example Of A Open Pit Copper Model Whim Creek, Australia
Underground Mining A Possibility If The Grade Is High Enough Sulphur Springs Deposit in Montana – a new discovery @ +2.5% Cu.
Discovering & Opening A Copper Mine • Acquire Interesting Ground • Discover Mineralization • Explore with Sampling & Drilling • Confirm Size and Grade • Confirm Geologic Resource • Test & Confirm Metallurgy • Conceptualize Mine & Mill • Preliminary Economic Assessment • Detailed Mine & Mill Plan • Initiate Environmental Testing • Social & Impact Analysis • Prepare Pre-Feasibility Study • Labor & Staffing Studies • Prepare Feasibility Study • Environmental Impact Statement • Permit Application & Receipt • Finance Project Development • Design and Engineer Mine & Mill • Build Facilities • Open Mine & Mill On a 100 million metric tonne mine – 10 to 20 years and $500 million to $1 billion expended before the first pound of copper is produced.
The Chocolate Chip Cookie Mine The following handout is a working example of project that you can bring back to your classrooms using chocolate chip cookies as mines. The project involves the students to ‘acquire’ land assets (cookies), equipment (toothpicks & paperclips), and mine for ore (chocolate chips), while filling out an economic / financial sheet, similar to the one on slide 25. The handout has instruction for carrying out the exercise. The example allows the students to conceptualize some of the complexity of mining and finance, while having fun extracting chocolate chips.
Economic Of Mining Question or Comments? Thank You This Session is followed by the Mineral Economics Lightning Round
Mineral Economics Lightning Round Fun! Excitement! Prizes!
Mineral Economics Lightning Round 1 A Aircraft Paints / Plastics Sporting Goods Titanium - Principally used in:
Mineral Economics Lightning Round 1 B Aircraft Paints / Plastics Sporting Goods Titanium - Principally used in:
Mineral Economics Lightning Round 2 A United States Russia China Where is the world’s largest un-mined copper nickel deposit?
Mineral Economics Lightning Round 2 B United States - Minnesota Russia China Where is the world’s largest un-mined copper nickel deposit?
Mineral Economics Lightning Round 3 A South Africa United States China Gold - Largest Producer
Mineral Economics Lightning Round 3 B South Africa United States China Gold - Largest Producer
Mineral Economics Lightning Round 4 A Animal Mineral Vegetable Oil – What is its Classification?
Mineral Economics Lightning Round 4 B Animal Mineral Vegetable Oil - Classification
Mineral Economics Lightning Round 5 A Tin Weight Steel Acid Bath Copper Trading Derivative What is a Picul?
Mineral Economics Lightning Round 5 B Tin Weight Steel Acid Bath Copper Trading Derivative What is a Picul?
Mineral Economics Lightning Round 6 A Aluminum & Nickel Iron & Platinum Gold & Copper What Two Metals Have Distinct Colors?
Mineral Economics Lightning Round 6 B Aluminum & Nickel Iron & Platinum Gold & Copper What Two Metals Have Distinct Colors?
Mineral Economics Lightning Round 7 A Platinum, Titanium Nickel, Cobalt Copper, Gold What New Mineral/Metal Discoveries Are Significant For Minnesota?
Mineral Economics Lightning Round 7 B Platinum, Titanium Nickel, Cobalt Copper, Gold What New Mineral/Metal Discoveries Are Significant For Minnesota?
Mineral Economics Lightning Round 8 A Boron Iron Silicon Elemental Concentration in the Crust – Highest Metal Concentration
Mineral Economics Lightning Round 8 B Boron Iron Silicon Elemental Concentration in the Crust – Highest Metal
Mineral Economics Lightning Round 9 A Iron Ore Building Stone Sand & Gravel Which metal/mineral is the largest produced in Minnesota?
Mineral Economics Lightning Round 9 B Iron Ore Building Stone Sand & Gravel Which metal/mineral is the largest produced in Minnesota?