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THE LMI TRAINING INSTITUTE

THE LMI TRAINING INSTITUTE. Orientation for New LMI Directors. Acknowledgments. Class funded by the Workforce Information Council Administered under contract by the LMI Training Institute Supported by the NASWA LMI Committee. Labor Market Institute. L abor M arket I nformation.

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THE LMI TRAINING INSTITUTE

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  1. THE LMI TRAINING INSTITUTE Orientation for New LMI Directors

  2. Acknowledgments • Class funded by the Workforce Information Council • Administered under contract by the LMI Training Institute • Supported by the NASWA LMI Committee

  3. Labor Market Institute Labor Market Information

  4. Labor Market Information A dynamicandsystematic approach to data—designed to meet the changing needs of our customers

  5. Labor Market Information Or, to put it more simply … Basically, it’s any data or analysis that relates to the workforce.

  6. Labor Market Information Who are our customers???

  7. Data or Information?? Customer Driven Determine Needs Determine Method of Delivery

  8. LMI TRAINING INSTITUTE The Workforce System: A General History

  9. The Roots of the System - ES • Free public Employment Service – Generally thought to begin in medieval times • Concept in 15th/16th Century Europe • First public registry of jobs/job-seekers in Nuremburg, Germany in 1431 • Early 1900s – nationwide in eight European countries plus Canada, New Zealand and South Africa

  10. The Roots of the System - UI • First public UI System – Berne, Switzerland in 1893 (subsidized public to which workers could contribute) • Originator of present system in Ghent, Belgium in 1901 (tied monthly benefit to unemployment rate) • Spread to 90 cities in Europe in early 1900s and nationally in France, Norway and Denmark • First compulsory law – Great Britain in 1911

  11. New York City 1834 – first public employment office followed by first state-directed public employment system in Ohio in1890 Massachusetts 1869 – first state bureau of labor statistics – by 1883, in 12 more states June 27, 1884 – Bureau of Labor created in Department of Interior Bureau of Labor’s mission: “to collect information upon the subject of labor, its relations to capital, the hours of labor and the earnings of laboring men and women, and the means of promoting their material, social, intellectual and moral prosperity” Created first national employment data in 1916 The United States Experience

  12. Federal involvement in ES in 1907 with Department of Commerce and Labor First federal employment office on Ellis Island Department of Labor separated in 1913 By then, 62 federal public employment offices in 19 states Wisconsin passed first statewide UI law June 6, 1933: FDR signed Wagner-Peyser Act and Employment Service was established – full federal/state system Social Security Act of 1935 created federal/state Unemployment Insurance system Most states started Research and Statistics sections in the 1930s as part of process The United States Experience

  13. The Birth of Federal/State LMI • In 1945, national series to yield employment estimates for each state • State agencies collected data; regional offices compiled figures; all data sent to DC to construct national estimates • Budget cuts in 1947: complete compilation of numbers shifted to states under cooperative agreements • By 1949, all states involved (start of CES)

  14. The Last Fifty Years • Manpower Development and Training Act of 1962 – shift to most in need • Comprehensive Employment and Training Act of 1973 – established “comprehensive LMI system” – created Division of LMI – provided funding – core products set – major ETA involvement • FY 1976 – line-item LMI funding • Job Training Partnership Act of 1982 – spelled out LMI requirement explicitly – more local decision making

  15. The Last Fifty Years • Levitan Commission (National Commission on Employment and Unemployment Statistics): funding and oversight transferred to BLS from ETA in FY 1984 – BLS started requiring contractual agreements • ETA disavowed any responsibility for LMI – Division of Labor Market Information abolished

  16. Birth of America’s Labor Market Information System in 1994 Consortia-based decision making Extensive funding from ETA Workforce Investment Act of 1998 Specifies LMI as part of the system with funding Establishes one-stop system of which LMI is a part 1990s and 2000s

  17. Funding for the System • BLS Cooperative Agreements – One Year • ETA Workforce Information Grant – Three Years • Different Years • Other Funding Sources

  18. Varied customers, varied needs Information types – sometimes requires additional feedback Data versus information Different delivery methods depending upon customer One size does not fit all customers. Meeting Customer Needs

  19. Public Access to Data Workforce Information Database Occupational Employment Projections Annual economic analysis report Customer Feedback Support for Workforce Investment Boards Outreach Special research studies Requirements of ETA

  20. Website Options • Vendors: CIBER, Geographic Solutions, Other In-state options • Oregon: www.qualityinfo.org • Washington: www.workforceexplorer.com • Virginia: www.vawc.virginia.gov/analyzer

  21. WIRED Grants Workforce Innovation and Regional Economic Development Encourages regional communities to partner and leverage assets and resources Requires extensive labor market information Currently around 40 WIRED regions www.doleta.wired

  22. Dealing with the Media • Hard Lessons • Keep It Simple • Never Give Opinions • Stand By the Facts • Role Varies State to State

  23. Working with Administrators • The Boss is always right. • BLS Restrictions • Estimating versus Actual • Budget Constraints versus Getting the Work Done • Different Organizational Entities

  24. Basic Terminology Speaking the Language – Acronyms and Concepts

  25. Labor Force Terms and Concepts • Employed • Worked at least one hour for pay • During the week that includes the 12th • Unemployed • No job attachment • Able, available for and actively seeking work • Can be experienced or a new or re-entrant

  26. Labor Force Terms & Concepts • Labor Force • 16+ years old • Employed + Unemployed • Unemployment rate • Unemployed ÷ Labor Force • Expressed as % • Labor Force Participation rate • Labor Force ÷ Working Age Population

  27. Discouraged Workers Harder to define and sometimes undercounted Generally are on long-term layoff with no immediate prospects Underemployment Also hard to define and count Basically can be anyone working below their skill level Might be underemployed by choice Labor Force Terms & Concepts

  28. LMI TRAINING INSTITUTE BLS Cooperative Programs

  29. BLS Cooperative Programs The foundation upon which most of our data rests …

  30. Next on the Agenda The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)

  31. Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages The History • Began with national UI system in 1938 • BLS assumed responsibility in 1972. • Expanded scope of program with UI coverage • Initially UI only covered firms who employed 8 or more workers at least 20 weeks per year • Now about 96% of total wage and salary employment covered

  32. UI quarterly contribution reports UCFE federal agency employment Supplementary employer surveys by state LMI offices Multiple establishment detail (MWR) Industrial coding (annual refile survey) Follow-ups triggered by edits Data Sources for QCEW

  33. Employment benchmarks for all BLS federal/state employer survey programs — CES, OES & OSHA Critical for Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal income State and national product Local planning Only consistent source of county employment and wages by industry Analysis requiring universe or detailed data Uses of QCEW Data

  34. QCEW Limitations & Changes • Some employment for large firms may be reported in the wrong areas. • Some firms report total number of employees in a quarter as employment for each month. • Data is not a time series. • No wedging of changes by industry or area from the following: • Annual refile survey • Changes in multi-establishment reporting • Shift to NAICS — Break in series

  35. Next on the Agenda The Current Employment Statistics (CES) Program

  36. History of CES • First BLS employment surveys in 1915 • Hours and earnings in 1933 in response to Great Depression • Employment estimates for all states by 1940 • Federal/state relationship by 1949

  37. Coverage Differences Between CES & QCEW • The following categories of workers are included in CES estimates but not included in QCEW: • Full commission salespersons • Elected and appointed government officials • Teachers in summer months who are paid on 12-month contracts

  38. Data Sources for CES • Covered employment from QCEW, supplemented with non-covered adjustments, is used to benchmark levels. • A monthly employer survey is a major part of the program, using a variety of collection methods.

  39. Uses of CES • A primary economic indicator of employment, earnings, and working hours for national, state, and selected areas • Total employment growth used by Federal Reserve • Incorporated in preliminary estimates of National Product and Income • Incorporated into productivity estimates

  40. CES Limitations & Changes • Sample size limits state and area industry detail (switch to probability method). • Sum-of-states employment does not equal national total. • Estimates for many substate areas are not funded. • Though accuracy exceeds that of other economic data, benchmark revisions still cause criticism. • Earnings are for production workers and are not available for many state industries.

  41. CES samples contain firms that may go out of business, but not firms that are just beginning. Over time, this causes estimates based only on sample to underestimate employment An adjustment is added by BLS to reduce magnitude of benchmark revisions. Example: Previous month’s estimate = 10,000 Sample trend = 1.0100 Bias adjustment factor = .0040 Adjusted trend factor = 1.0140 Current month’s estimate = 10,140 CES Birth-Death Factor

  42. And now on to… The Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) Program

  43. Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) OES: An employer survey which produces employment and wage-rate estimates by occupation and industry for states and areas BLS and ETA originally shared responsibility with the states. When BLS took total federal responsibility for the program, existing funds were spread over all states.

  44. History of OES Began in 1971 – 50,000 surveys in US Originally involved ten cooperating states before being extended to 15 and then all states

  45. History of OES In 1996, the following changes were made. • Sample was increased to be the largest of any employer survey. • Wage rates were added for all states and substate areas. • All industries were surveyed each year rather than every third year.

  46. Data developed with most current 3 years of data Surveys conducted twice annually Employment by occupation tallied for each detailed industry Staffing ratios developed representing each occupation’s share of industry employment OES Staffing Estimates

  47. OES Wage Rate Estimates • Data tallied by wage ranges • Wage-rate averages generated by weighted interpolations • Prior data aged (brought up to date) by other BLS wage survey trends (ECI)

  48. ETA funded but tied to OES Composed of adjusted OES staffing ratios applied to industry employment projections Short-term projections — 2 years out Long-term projections: 10 years out Technical assistance available at the following site: dev.projectionscentral.com State & Area Occupational Projections

  49. Originally developed by Occupational Projections Consortium – not part of BLS Software produces occupational and wage estimates for substate areas Designed to be used in conjunction with MicroMatrix system Output files are database ready Estimate Delivery System

  50. The fourth BLS program is … The LAUS Program Which stands for Local Area Unemployment Statistics

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