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Dr. Jordan G. Powers Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmo

Antarctic Weather Prediction Activities— USA. Dr. Jordan G. Powers Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO WMO THORPEX Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway October 6, 2010 .

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Dr. Jordan G. Powers Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmo

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  1. Antarctic Weather Prediction Activities— USA Dr. Jordan G. Powers Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO WMO THORPEX Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway October 6, 2010

  2. Polar Numerical Weather Prediction— United States • Arctic and Antarctic Regions • NWP Operations – NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) ▪ GFS: Global Forecasting System T574 (27 km) 8-d forecasts ▪ Arctic latitudes  NAM: North American Mesoscale model 12-km grid 4-day forecasts Alaska Hi-Res Window (HRW): 5-km WRF-ARW

  3. Polar Numerical Prediction— US • NWP Operations (cont’d) – High–latitude NAM and Hi-Res Windows (HRW) NAM Alaska HRW

  4. Polar Numerical Prediction— US • NWP Operations (cont’d) – U.S. Air Force Weather Agency ▪ Arctic and Antarctic mesoscale forecasting: WRF ▪ Forecast distribution restricted – U.S. Navy ▪ NOGAPS: Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System ▪ Limited public products available (unclassified) NOGAPS 300 hPa height, winds: 24-h fcst 24 Sept 2010 1200 UTC init

  5. Polar Numerical Prediction— US • NWP Operations (cont’d) – AMPS: Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System ▪ Forecasts for Antarctica and high southern latitudes ▪ Forecasts for  U.S. Antarctic Program forecasters (primary)  Researchers, international users (secondary)

  6. Polar Numerical Prediction— United States • NWP Operations (cont’d) – AMPS: The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System ▪ Real-time NWP system to support Antarctic forecasting and science ▪ Forecasts for Antarctica and high southern latitudes ▪ Sponsor: National Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs ▪ Collaborators NCAR The Ohio State University Univ. of Colorado

  7. The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) • History – Antarctic Weather Forecasting Workshop (2000) (Byrd Polar Research Center, Ohio State Univ.) – Recognized weaknesses in Antarctic NWP ▪ Inadequate horizontal resolutions for capturing mesoscale features ▪ Inadequate representation of physical properties unique to Antarctic troposphere and PBL ▪ Poor representation of Antarctic topography – Recommendation: Need for a robust, high-resolution NWP system tailored to the needs of the forecasters at McMurdo

  8. The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) • AMPS Users / Applications – Primary: USAP Forecasters: Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center (SPAWAR) – Researchers and graduate students – Support for international on-Ice activities – Scientific field experiments Examples:  LARISSA campaign (2010) (Larsen Ice Shelf System, Antarctica)  MaudNESS study (2005; R/V cruises) (Dronning Maud Land Nonlinear Equation of State System)  GLOBEC Study (Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics)

  9. AMPS Model: WRF – Weather Research and Forecasting Model – “Polar WRF”: WRF w/modifications for polar regions Forecast Domains: 45-/15-/5-/1.67-km 15 km 5 km McMurdo 5 km 45 km ● Christchurch 5 km 15 km 1.67 km McMurdo Station ● Ross Is. ● McMurdo South Pole

  10. AMPS Forecasts • Vertical configuration – 44 η-levels – 10 mb top • Frequency – 2 forecasts / day – 0000 UTC, 1200 UTC initializations • Lengths – 45-km, 15-km grids: 120 hr – 5-km, 1.67-km grids: 36 hr • First-guess/BCs: GFS

  11. Model Enhancements RAMP2 – USGS terrain hgts (m) • Antarctic topo: 200-m RAMP2 dataset (Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project) • Cycled soil temperatures • Dry Valleys land use 1.7-km Grid Land Use (brown=bare ground) USGS map: Ross Is., Dry Valleys

  12. Data Assimilation • WRFDA (3DVAR) system: 45- and 15-km grids • Assimilated observations include • Conventional obs (radiosonde, AWS, ship, buoy, aircraft, METAR) • Satellite (e.g., SATOB, GEO & MODIS AMV, QuikSCAT, AMSU-A rads) • GPS RO (refractivity— COSMIC) COSMIC Soundings Selected Obs: 0000 UTC 20 Sept 2009

  13. AMPS: Computer Platform • Location: NCAR • IBM Power 6 architecture • 3 32-processor Nodes 96 CPUs 4.7 Ghz processors • Wallclock time/fcst 4.5 hr • Funding: National Science Foundation

  14. AMPS— Antarctic Air Support New York Air National Guard LC-130 Ice Runway, McMurdo 62nd Airlift Wing C-17 Ice Runway, McMurdo AMPS provides numerical guidance for SPAWAR forecasting for the USAF, NYANG, Royal New Zealand AF, and other on-Ice air ops (e.g., helicopters, Twin Otters).

  15. SA Agulhas (South Africa) (background) RV Polarstern (Germany) (foreground) AMPS: International Support  Italy  Australia  UK  Germany  South Africa  Chile  China  New Zealand  DROMLAN Group— Dronning Maud Land Air Network Germany, Russia, India, Japan, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Belgium, UK, South Africa

  16. AMPS Display Page Fcst hr Forecast Grid Model Run Product Chooser Run Status Site: www.mmm.ucar.edu/rt/amps

  17. AMPS Forecast Products SLP 3-h Precip 17 Sept 2010 1200 UTC init Fcst period: 12 UTC 17 Sept– 12 UTC 22 Sept

  18. AMPS Forecast Products Meteogram–South Pole 17 Sept 2010 1200 UTC init Fcst period: 12 UTC 17 Sept– 00 UTC 19 Sept

  19. AMPS Forecast Products NZSP South Pole (lat, lon) = (-90.00, 0.00) Forecast initialized at 2010091712 AMPS 5-km SP domain FCST UTC T Tcorr Td Altim Spd Dir Grid VVV RH1RH2RH3 T1T2T3 ACCUM HR HR (C) (C) (C) (in.) (kts) (°) (°) (% wrt water) (C) 00 12 -63.9 -63.7 -51.5 28.42 11 41 41 -007 469078069 M53M42M39 000 01 13 -61.2 -62.1 -65.9 28.41 12 104 104 -008 054065068 M50M43M39 002 02 14 -57.3 -58.6 -61.8 28.38 15 91 91 -010 056066069 M48M41M38 002 03 15 -54.7 -56.0 -59.2 28.41 15 82 82 -010 057066069 M46M40M37 002 04 16 -52.9 -54.0 -57.4 28.39 12 72 72 -006 058066069 M45M40M37 002 05 17 -47.8 -49.0 -52.1 28.34 13 39 39 -003 061066069 M44M40M37 003 06 18 -45.6 -47.1 -49.8 28.35 16 23 23 -004 063067069 M43M39M37 003 07 19 -44.8 -46.0 -48.9 28.32 17 21 21 -005 063068069 M41M37M36 003 08 20 -44.3 -45.6 -48.5 28.34 17 22 22 -006 063068069 M41M37M36 002 09 21 -43.9 -45.1 -47.9 28.36 17 22 22 -006 064068069 M40M37M36 002 10 22 -43.2 -44.3 -47.2 28.33 18 19 19 -006 064068068 M40M37M36 002 11 23 -42.9 -44.1 -46.9 28.36 17 18 18 -006 064068068 M40M38M37 002 12 00 -42.8 -44.1 -46.9 28.38 17 15 15 -005 064068068 M40M38M37 002 * NOTES on units: VVV (vertical velocity) in tenths of a microbar per second at 700 hPa (positive– upward motion) ACCUM (accumulated precipitation, past 1h) is given as hundreths of a millimeter; RH1, RH2, and RH3 are the % RH at the surface, 1000', and 3000', respectively; T1, T2, and T3 are the temperatures at 500', 1000', and 1500', respectively. Table– South Pole

  20. AMPS Archive • AMPS Forecasts Stored – NCAR Mass Storage System – MM5 and WRF forecast output  Native model format  GRIB subsets of output (Oct. 2008) ▪ Select fields (e.g., u, v, T, GHT) ▪ Mandatory and some selected levels – Forecast plots (Oct. 2008) • Applications – Model verification and forecast review – Case and process studies – Site and region climatologies Information: www.mmm.ucar.edu/rt/wrf/amps/information/archive_info.html

  21. Summary • US Polar NWP: – Military: Arctic & Antarctic— Restricted access – Civilian: Arctic— NCEP Antarctic— NSF: AMPS Group • AMPS: Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System – Real-time NWP guidance: WRF model – Support to:  USAP weather operations  Research  Field campaigns  International community  Emergency operations – Funding: U.S. National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs

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