1 / 22

14 Jan 2019

14 Jan 2019. Iran “Soft Power” Strategies in Syria. Michael Rubin American Enterprise Institute. Iranian Priorities. Protecting the Shi‘ites Exporting Revolution Strategic Boundaries Consolidating Influence in the “Near Abroad” Protecting the “Persians”. Religious Pilgrimage.

sbartholomew
Télécharger la présentation

14 Jan 2019

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. 14 Jan 2019

  2. Iran “Soft Power” Strategies in Syria Michael Rubin American Enterprise Institute

  3. Iranian Priorities • Protecting the Shi‘ites • Exporting Revolution • Strategic Boundaries • Consolidating Influence in the “Near Abroad” • Protecting the “Persians”

  4. Religious Pilgrimage University of Tehran drive to sign up volunteers to ‘defend shrines’ in Syria

  5. “Hizbullah Model” • Subsidize charities • Create patronage • Tolerate no competition • Perform better than the government • Bribe if necessary

  6. Imam Khomeini Relief Committee Supreme Leader controls assets Programs for orphans, disabled, elderly and food aid, computer classes, medical clinics, blankets, fuel, interest-free loans, marriage assistance Expansion in Afghanistan through 1990s. Activities in Tajikistan, terror listing in Lebanon

  7. Air Bridge

  8. Shaping Perceptions

  9. Any Questions? Contact:mrubin@aei.org Twitter: @mrubin1971

  10. Russia’s “Soft Power” Strategies in Syria Anna Borshchevskaya Senior Fellow The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

  11. The Syrian Arab RepublicPopulationEthnic and Sectarian Mix Gary Hobin Dept. of Joint, Interagency, and Multinational Operations (DJIMO), CGSC

  12. Syrian Population Figures(Use with Caution) • Population figures – estimates at best. • Civil War casualties and refugee populations uncertain. • Syrian population (2011 est.) – 23 million. • Syrian population (2014 est.) – 17.9 million (4 m decline).

  13. Syria: Sectarian Divide Alawites: 10.9% Christians: 13% The Other 14% Muslims: 86% Jews: .87% Druze: 3% Yazidis: .08% Shi’i: 0.4% Isma’ilis: 1% Sunnis: 70.5% “We’re all Muslims here . . . Except we’re not.”

  14. Syria: Ethnic Divide Assessment of current draft (03 Dec) Kurds: 10% Assyrians: 3-4% Circassians: 1.5% Armenians: 1% Turkmen/Turkoman: 4-5% • Other ethnic groups: • Albanians, Bosnians, Georgians, Greeks, Pashtuns, Persians, Russians. Syrian Arabs: 80-85%

  15. A Conundrum? • Shi’I Iran supports • a Sunni-majority state, • led by a minority Alawite government, • that has a history of oppressing its minorities, • in which the Christian minority has traditionally supported the authoritarian Alawite government as a protection against the Sunni majority population. • And Russia stirs the pot to keep the West (specifically the U.S.) occupied.

  16. Summary

  17. Questions/Answers/Comments

  18. CASO Suggested Reading Sources: • Vladimir V. Putin,“VoyennayaDoctrinaRossiyskoyFederatsii” [The Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation], December 26, 2014 (in Russian). • Vladimir V. Putin, “UkazPrezidentaRossiyskoyFederatsii o StrategiiNatsionalnoyBezopasnostiRossiyskoyFederatsii” [“The Decree of the President of the Russian Federation on the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation”], 31 December 2015 (in Russian) • General Valery V. Gerasimov (Вале́рийВаси́льевичГера́симов), Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia, first Deputy Defence Minister, ”TsenostiNauki V Predvidenii. NovieVizoviTrebuyutPereosmislitFormi I SposobiVedeniaBoyevikhDeistviy,” ”At The Foresight Of The Value of Science : New Challenges Demand Rethinking the Forms and Methods of Carrying out Combat Operations,“ Voyenno-PromyshlennyyKurier online, 27 February 2013, issue #8(476), accessed 16 September 2016, http://vpk-news.ru/articles/14632. • “Azerbaycan 24 senesonraErmenistan'dangerialdı” [“Azerbaijan Returned (lands) from Armenia 24 Years Later”], Milliyet.com in Turkish, April 25, 2016. • “Azerbaijan Halqi Oz TorpaglarininIshgalAltindaGalmasi Ila HechVaxtBarishmayacag” (“Azerbaijan Will Never Agree Its Lands to Remain Under Occupation”), Ramiz Mehtiyev, Chief of the Staff of the President of Azerbaijan, HalqGezeti in Azerbaijani, April 6, 2016. • Congressional Research Service (CRS) “Information Warfare: Issues for Congress,” March 5, 2018 R45142 · VERSION 5 · UPDATED • Ibrahimov Mahir, Otto Gustav, Gentile Lee "Cultural Perspectives, Geopolitics and Energy Security of Eurasia: Is the Next Global Conflict Imminent?" Volume 1/ Army U Press/ Culture, Regional Expertise/Language Management Office (CRELMO), Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, USA. March 2017. ISBN: 9781940804316. • “Nord Stream 2 partners withdraw amid Poland pressure,” The Financial Times Ltd, August 12, 2016. • Anna Borshchevskaya, https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/russias-arabic-propaganda-what-it-is-why-it-matters • Robert F. Baumann, “A Central Asian Perspective on Russian Soft Power: The View from Tashkent”, Military Review, July-August 2018. • Russkii mir,“(Russian World), http://www.russkiymir.ru/russkiymir/en/( in Russian). • Ibrahimov, Mahir J. “Socio-cultural lessons from Eurasia and Afghanistan,” Military Intelligence Professional Bulletin (MIPB), January/March 2011.http://usacac.army.mil/sites/default/files/documents/cace/LREC/2011_Socio-CulturalLessons.pdf • Ibrahimov, Mahir J.“Cross- Cultural Negotiations/Skill Building in an Operational Environment,” Military Intelligence Professional Bulletin (MIPB), April/June 2011. http://usacac.army.mil/sites/default/files/documents/cace/LREC/2011_CrossCulturalNegotiations.pdf • Ibrahimov, Mahir J. “Invitation To Rain, A Story Of The Road Taken Towards Freedom,” Global Scholarly Publications. New York, NY, USA. October 2008. ISBN: 978-1-59267-0925. • World Bank, “GDP growth (annual %),” World Development Indicators, accessed 12 September 2016 http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?Code=NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG&id=af3ce82b&report_name=Popular_indicators&populartype=series&ispopular=y#. • Alexander Dugin, “The Fourth Political Theory” Arktos Media Ltd, July 20, 2012 (ISBN-10: 1907166653/ ISBN-13: 978-1907166655); • Alexander Dugin, “Eurasian Mission: An Introduction to Neo-Eurasianism,” Arktos Media Ltd, December 15, 2014 (ISBN-10: 1910524247 ISBN-13: 978-1910524244) • “ O Rossotrudnichestve”, http://rs.gov.ru/node/28132 (in Russian).

  19. Contact: Dr. Mahir Ibrahimov, Director, CREL Management Office (CRELMO) Fort Leavenworth, KS 66027-2300 Phone: (913) 684-3345 DSN: 552-3345Contact: Dr. Mahir Ibrahimov, Director, CREL Management Office (CRELMO) Fort Leavenworth, KS 66027-2300 Phone: (913) 684-3345 DSN: 552-3345 CRELMO website: http://usacac.army.mil/organizations/cace/lrec ATN: https://atn.army.mil/dsp_template.aspx?dpID=102 https://atn.army.mil YouTube link: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLkGvnfy3IadNRMPT-sNHpAsz8a3npWBH8 CRELMO website: http://usacac.army.mil/organizations/cace/lrec ATN: https://atn.army.mil/dsp_template.aspx?dpID=102 https://atn.army.mil YouTube link: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLkGvnfy3IadNRMPT-sNHpAsz8a3npWBH8 Contact: Dr. Mahir Ibrahimov, Director, Cultural & Area Studies Office (CASO) U.S. Army Command and General Staff College (CGSC) Fort Leavenworth, KS 66027-2300 Phone: (913) 684-3345 DSN: 552-3345 CASO website: http://usacac.army.mil/organizations/cace/lrec ATN: https://atn.army.mil/dsp_template.aspx?dpID=102 https://atn.army.mil YouTube link: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLkGvnfy3IadNRMPT-sNHpAsz8a3npWBH8

More Related