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A Pacific ICP?

Regional Meeting of Heads of Statistics and Planning Nouméa , 12-16 July, 2010 Session 3.1. A Pacific ICP?. Structure of Presentation. What is the ICP? Who is participating? Pacific PPPs based on 2005 ICP What data is needed? A model for Pacific ICP participation

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A Pacific ICP?

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  1. Regional Meeting of Heads of Statistics and PlanningNouméa, 12-16 July, 2010Session 3.1 A Pacific ICP?

  2. Structure of Presentation • What is the ICP? • Who is participating? • Pacific PPPs based on 2005 ICP • What data is needed? • A model for Pacific ICP participation • Links with strategy plan and PARIS21 • Suggested topics for discussion

  3. What is the ICP? • International comparison program (ICP) • Aim: measure Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) • What are PPPs • Simply put, PPPs are spatial price indexes • PPPs can convert GDPs valued at a uniform price level by comparison • CPIs are temporal price indexes • Exchange rates can convert GDPs to a common currency A kilo of oranges (specified quality) is 90 franks in country A and 3 dollars in country B.The PPP for oranges between the two countries, when B is the base country, is 30 franks to 1 dollar. If the exchange rate were 60 franks to 1 dollar, then country B would be considered 'more expensive' and country A would be considered 'less expensive'.

  4. Who is participating? • 160 'benchmark' countries in six regions • Global statistics coordinated by World Bank • Six regional implementing agencies • ADB responsible for Asia/Pacific region • Fiji only Pacific country • PICTs not supported by ADB in 2011 round 40 'non-benchmark' countries • World Bank models results for these countries • Eight Pacific countries by default

  5. Pacific PPPs based on 2005 ICP

  6. What data is needed? • Full participation • Prices for 800+ products • Special collections (capital goods, government salaries, trade prices, pharmaceutical products etc.) • 12 months • All country • Expenditure data for 155 basic headings • Needs GDP by expenditure (7 categories) • Needs individual and collective expenditures of government (based on GFS 2001 - COFOG)

  7. Towards a Pacific ICP model • A 'Pacific model' for ICP participation • Suggested criteria • Uses appropriate 'scale' • Has low opportunity cost • Uses existing data systems • Limited additional data collection, if any • Builds capacity • Uses staged development

  8. Capacity building • “there is a need to highlight the capacity-building elements in the ICP, and link them to the capacity building agenda of PARIS21. There is also a need to establish synergies with other capacity-building programs such as the System of National Accounts (SNA). The capacity-building needs of the countries should be assessed in the planning stage”

  9. 'Pacific ICP model' – key elements • Stage 1 (ICP 2011 round – possibly with lag) • Mainly use existing CPI data (about 80 items) • Household expenditure weights only Stage 2 (ICP 2016 round) • TA partners adopt ICP standards for new projects • CPI, extend scope of common list, adopt SPDs • HIES, use COICOP • NA, develop GDP(E) with ICP classification • Government Finance, use COFOG, collective/individual Stepped adoption • Adjust level of involvement based on scale of NSO

  10. NSOs -Products covered by CPI

  11. Links with strategy plan and PARIS21? • Harmonised concepts, classifications, methods • CPI (COICOP, product list) • HIES (COICOP) • National accounts • GDP by expenditure • GFS 2001 (COFOG)

  12. Suggested discussion points • Should the Pacific measure some PPPs? • or should we just rely on modelling? • Is the simplified Stage 1 approach (<100 CPI items) possible? • How useful is the suggestion to rely on existing data systems? • Is it realistic to adopt ICP standards over the next 5 years?

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