'Probabilistic forecasts' diaporamas de présentation

Probabilistic Forecast Distribution Verification Primer Kevin Werner Dave Brandon Steve Shumate

Probabilistic Forecast Distribution Verification Primer Kevin Werner Dave Brandon Steve Shumate Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, UT. Version 2.1 October 9, 2003. What is a Probabilistic Forecast?.

843 views • 72 slides

CPC Monthly Climate Review Feb 2014 Jin Huang

CPC Monthly Climate Review Feb 2014 Jin Huang. Outline: Global Patterns Extremes and US anomalies DJF Climate Attributions Forecast Verifications After thoughts on the Monthly Climate Reviews. Global Patterns. Global SST Anomaly ( 0 C) and Anomaly Tendency.

542 views • 41 slides

Space Weather Storms: From Sun to Earth

Space Weather Storms: From Sun to Earth. Bob Rutledge NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado December 4 th , 2013. Cleveland WFO Space Weather Webinar. Outline. The Sun/Solar Cycle Sequence of Events Space Weather Phenomena/Impacts Solar Flares Radiation Storms

555 views • 35 slides

Predictability & Prediction of Seasonal Climate over North America

Predictability & Prediction of Seasonal Climate over North America. Lisa Goddard , Simon Mason, Ben Kirtman, Kelly Redmond, Randy Koster, Wayne Higgins, Marty Hoerling, Alex Hall, Jerry Meehl, Tom Delworth, Nate Mantua, Gavin Schmidt (US CLIVAR PPAI Panel). Potential predictability.

553 views • 35 slides

A primer on ensemble weather prediction and the use of probabilistic forecasts

NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. A primer on ensemble weather prediction and the use of probabilistic forecasts. Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division tom.hamill@noaa.gov. Presentation to 2011 Albany Utility Wind Integration Workshop.

334 views • 33 slides

Virtual Currency Case Study: Prediction Markets

Virtual Currency Case Study: Prediction Markets. David M. Pennock Yahoo! Research. Virtual Currency. What actions can be motivated with virtual currency? To what degree of competence? Case study: Prediction markets Epilogue: Designing a better virtual currency.

489 views • 32 slides

Martyn Clark, David Gochis , Ethan Gutmann , and Roy Rasmussen

Suggestions for research to fill critical capability gaps to support short-term water management decisions . Martyn Clark, David Gochis , Ethan Gutmann , and Roy Rasmussen NCAR Research Applications Laboratory. Outline.

544 views • 31 slides

statistical validation of numerical models: some methods

statistical validation of numerical models: some methods. Ricardo Lemos. subject index. data setup standard methods of model validation model validation for a single location - time-series analysis model validation for a single instant - spatial data analysis

481 views • 31 slides

Dynamical Forecasting

511 views • 30 slides

Verification activities at ECMWF

Verification activities at ECMWF. General progress including anomalous winter Other Centres Precipitation, Waves, TCs Extended-range New headline scores for ECMWF. Z500, Time series of ACC=0.6, N.Hem. Z500, RMS skill score N.Hem. SAC 37 Verification 2008. First month of cy36r1 .

497 views • 27 slides

Christopher J. Schaffer 1 William A. Gallus Jr. 2 Moti Segal 2

Improving Probabilistic Ensemble Forecasts of Convection through the Application of QPF-POP Relationships. Christopher J. Schaffer 1 William A. Gallus Jr. 2 Moti Segal 2 1 National Weather Service, WFO Goodland 2 Iowa State University, Ames, IA. Ensemble vs. Deterministic.

362 views • 26 slides

2013-2014 WPC Winter Weather Desk Operations and Verification

2013-2014 WPC Winter Weather Desk Operations and Verification. Dan Petersen Winter weather focal point Keith Brill , David Novak , Wallace Hogsett , and Mark Klein. Weather Prediction Center - Winter Weather Operations. Review of Winter Weather Desk Operations

482 views • 24 slides

Probabilistic Forecasting

Probabilistic Forecasting. pdfs and Histograms. A few different normal (Gaussian) pdfs. Probability density functions (pdfs) are unobservable. They can only be estimated. They tell us the density, and must be integrated to get the probability. pdfs and Histograms.

383 views • 24 slides

CBRFC Updates

CBRFC Updates. Michelle Schmidt, Hydrologist in Charge. Outline. CBRFC Climate Services ET project Migration to CHPS Status of HEFS efforts Linkage to USBR mid-term probabilistic. Climate Services currently offered by River Forecast Centers -Partial List-. Water Supply Forecasts

299 views • 16 slides

Bias correction and probabilistic skill in seasonal forecasts based on NMME Nir Y. Krakauer

Bias correction and probabilistic skill in seasonal forecasts based on NMME Nir Y. Krakauer Department of Civil Engineering and CUNY Remote Sensing of the Earth Institute, The City College of New York nkrakauer@ccny.cuny.edu. In this talk. Datasets used

267 views • 15 slides

Toward Probabilistic Seasonal Prediction Nir Krakauer,

Toward Probabilistic Seasonal Prediction Nir Krakauer, Hannah Aizenman, Michael Grossberg, Irina Gladkova Department of Civil Engineering and CUNY Remote Sensing of the Earth Institute, The City College of New York. nkrakauer@ccny.cuny.edu. In this talk.

151 views • 15 slides

323 views • 13 slides

H. Madsen, J.Tastu*, P.Pinson

Multivariate Conditional Parametric models for a spatio-temporal analysis of short-term wind power forecast errors. H. Madsen, J.Tastu*, P.Pinson. Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Technical University of Denmark * jvl@imm.dtu.dk. The spatio-temporal effects.

244 views • 12 slides

SWPC Safeguarding Our Advanced Technologies

SWPC Safeguarding Our Advanced Technologies. Thomas J. Bogdan. Leveraging Research Transition-to-Operations Modern Forecast Environment Reaching New Customers Better Delivery of Services Partnering With the Private Sector Increasing Public Awareness. Leveraging Research.

155 views • 8 slides

P19: Probabilistic Hurricane Forecasts for Risk Management

119 views • 2 slides