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DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES AND THEIR CONSEQUENCES

This presentation by Peter Pogačar addresses the significant demographic changes in Slovenia and their implications on the nation. It highlights the ageing population, projections for 2030, and its impact on the pension system, labor market, occupational safety, and health care. Key challenges discussed include the sustainability of the pension system, low participation rates of older workers, and the dualism of the labor market. It emphasizes the need for collaborative solutions to address these challenges and improve working conditions across different age groups.

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DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES AND THEIR CONSEQUENCES

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  1. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESAND THEIR CONSEQUENCES Peter Pogačar, Director – General MoLFSA Brdo, October 6, 2011

  2. Demographic changes Consequences / challenges Pension system Labour market Occupational safety and health Health care Long term care

  3. Population projections for Slovenia,EUROPOP2008 for 1. 1. 2030 Source: Eurostat, 2008; EF.

  4. Future demographic changes – ageing of population Source: Eurostat, 2008; IER

  5. Population rate of elderly 65+ years (in %) by different demographic scenarios Source: EUROSTAT 2008.

  6. Population rate of persons aged 20-64 years(in %) by different demographic scenarios Source: EUROSTAT 2008.

  7. Population rate of persons aged 0-19 years (in %) by different demographic scenarios Source: EUROSTAT 2008.

  8. Population projections ERUOPOP2008 – rate of basic age groups (contingencies) of population as a share of the wholeSlovenian population in the period 2008-2060 16,1% 33,4% 64,3% 49,1% 19,6% 17,5% 8 Source: Eurostat, EF.

  9. Ratio: numbers of pensioners vs. number of employees

  10. Age profiles of consumption and income from work, Slovenia, 2004 AGE 25 YEARS AGE 56 YEARS SUFFICIT DEFICIT DEFICIT Source: Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, APG-2004; other sources

  11. Lifecycle deficit, Slovenia, 2004 31 YEARS Source:Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, APG-2004; other sources.

  12. Age profile of income from work, international comparison Source: Independence and Return in the Family of European Market Economies, november Sambt & Malačič, NTA Accounts for Slovenia: 2007, str. 6.

  13. Pension expenditures • risk of sustainability and adequacy of the system • risk on intergenerational solidarity Measures: • Raise of the effective retirement age • Raise of the employment rate of the age group 55 to 64to 68% by 2040 Future challenges

  14. Labour market • Lack of workforce • Low employment rates of older • Dualism of labour market • Conflict of generations (X, Y) in the labour market • Working conditions Future challenges

  15. Labour market Employability of the older workers: • Definition of older worker • Rights – linked to the age of worker • Compliance with the pension system Future challenges

  16. Safety and health at work • Increasing importance • Measures – targetinggroups of employees (different age) employers (size) IMPORTANT - all groups should be included Future challenges

  17. Safety and health at work If we want to make efficient measures, we need to improve: • Knowledge base • Analytical approach (quality analyses) • Occupational safety and health statistics Future challenges

  18. Safety and health at work • Increasing number of: • non-typical work arrangements • small and medium sized enterprises • Lack of data on self-employed and “self-employed” • Increasing share of illegal work, performed by vulnerable groups (women, migrants, unemployed) Future challenges

  19. New solutions are needed in the field of: • Work organisation • Safety and health at work • Employment relationships Conclusions

  20. Ageing of population is not a problem – it is a CHALLENGE WE HAVE A RESPONSIBILITY TO DEAL WITH THIS CHALLENGE TOGETHER Conclusions

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