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TABLE-TOP EXERCISE: INDIAN OCEAN SCENARIO MAKRAN SOURCE Shallow, Offshore, Mw9.0

TABLE-TOP EXERCISE: INDIAN OCEAN SCENARIO MAKRAN SOURCE Shallow, Offshore, Mw9.0 Training Programme in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 21-25 August, 2006 Male, Maldives, 27-31 August, 2006 Colombo, Sri Lanka, 30 August 2006. TWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES

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TABLE-TOP EXERCISE: INDIAN OCEAN SCENARIO MAKRAN SOURCE Shallow, Offshore, Mw9.0

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  1. TABLE-TOP EXERCISE: INDIAN OCEAN SCENARIO MAKRAN SOURCE Shallow, Offshore, Mw9.0 Training Programme in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 21-25 August, 2006 Male, Maldives, 27-31 August, 2006 Colombo, Sri Lanka, 30 August 2006

  2. TWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES • SEISMIC DATA COLLECTION & ANALYSES • SEA LEVEL MEASUREMENTS & ANALYSES • DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES • MESSAGE CREATION & DISSEMINATION

  3. CHECKLIST Indian Ocean Events - Initial Bulletin EQ SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION Locate Epicenter (Tele-EQ, Pick, nquake) O Make/Examine Location Map (nquake) O Determine Depth (nquake) O Determine Magnitude (Mwp) O Issue Observatory MessageO Start Mm (email Papeete if Mw>7), SMAG, Theta O Select Message Type based on Criteria O Call in Other Watchstanders to Help (Watches) O Compute/Print/[Map] ETAs if a Warning or TIB O

  4. CHECKLIST - Indian Ocean Events - Initial Bulletin EQ SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION Locate Epicenter (Tele-EQ, Pick, nquake) O Make/Examine Location Map (nquake) O Determine Depth (nquake) O Determine Magnitude (Mwp) O Issue Observatory MessageO Start Mm (email Papeete if Mw>7), SMAG, Theta O Select Message Type based on Criteria O Call in Other Watchstanders to Help (Watches) O Compute/Print/[Map] ETAs if a Warning or TIB O

  5. Checklist - Indian Ocean Events ISSUE MESSAGE Run Message Software (for Indian Ocean) O Check Message before Sending: Bulletin Number (should be 1) O Message Type O Which Places Put in Watch Status O Add Statement for Anything Unusual O Earthquake Parameters O Estimated Arrival Times O

  6. Checklist - Indian Ocean Events ENSURE MESSAGE DISSEMINATION Check all Messages Went Out Resend if Necessary GTS (lp –d nmc nmcmsg [hnmcmsg]) O Fax/Telex (lp –d tlx tlxmsg) O NWW (lp –d nww nwwmsg [hnwwmsg]) O Web (/bin/ftp2webpac and /bin/ftp2webhaw) O Email (cat wmsg | /bin/mailx bulletin ) O EMWIN (call NWSTG if NMC okay) O HFO Fax (/bin/fax2hfo now) O Immediate Call Down List O

  7. Checklist - Indian Ocean Events CONTINUE FOR WATCHES, TIB w/Tsunami potential Call Closest Countries Confirm they got our message O Ask if they have any reports O Display and Monitor Nearest Sea Level Gauges O Trigger DARTS at least 30-min ahead of their ETAs O ReviewHistorical DataO Re-assess Magnitude Monitor Mm, SMAG O Check for Tsunami or Slow Earthquake (Mw vs Ms, Theta) O Monitor email for other EQ params and CMTs O

  8. INDIAN OCEAN BULLETIN CRITERIA

  9. 1945 Makran Accretionary margin, location of 1945 Tsunami in this region Island Arc Volcanics Mud Volcanoes A Mohktari et al., 2005

  10. Mohktari et al., 2005

  11. SCENARIO TIMELINE 0:00 Mw 9 Earthquake Occurs 0:10 PTWC Seismic Alarms Triggered 0:14 PTWC Initial Location/Magnitude Mw 8.1 0:15 PTWC Observatory Message 0:17 PTWC Basin-Wide Tsunami Watch 1 0:18 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 1

  12. P-wave TT 8 min Broadband Seismic Stations contributing data to PTWC

  13. SCENARIO TIMELINE 1:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 2 Mw 8.9 revised 1:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 2 2:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 3 2:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 3 Masirah SL gauge has not arrived (eta 2:23) - TWC may wait to issue

  14. Calculated Tsunami Arrival Times Station Xmit Arrival Transmit Masirah 15 01:23:29 01:27:00 Salalah 15 02:28:17 02:40:00 Hanimaadhoo 60 03:36:28 04:01:00 Male 15 04:12:04 04:15:00 Gan 60 04:23:18 05:01:00 Colombo 15 04:45:36 04:54:00 Pt.LaRue 60 05:33:36 05:41:00 Lamu 30 05:59:00 06:03:00 Zanzibar 15 06:47:03 06:49:00 Rodrigue 15 08:09:43 07:13:00 Port Luis 15 08:23:45 07:31:00

  15. Near-shore shallow bathymetry increases travel time Male Gan Masirah

  16. SCENARIO TIMELINE 3:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 4 Salalah Sea level gauge (eta 3:26) 3:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 4 4:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 5 Reading at Hanimaahdoo (eta 3:26) Male Sea level gauge (eta 4:12) 4:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 5 with Updated Amplitude Forecasts Gan (eta 4:23, but transmit 5:01 since 60 min transmit rate)

  17. Calculated Tsunami Arrival Times Station Xmit Arrival Transmit Masirah 15 01:23:29 01:27:00 Salalah 15 02:28:17 02:40:00 Hanimaadhoo 60 03:36:28 04:01:00 Male 15 04:12:04 04:15:00 Gan 60 04:23:18 05:01:00 Colombo 15 04:45:36 04:54:00 Pt.LaRue 60 05:33:36 05:41:00 Lamu 30 05:59:00 06:03:00 Zanzibar 15 06:47:03 06:49:00 Rodrigue 15 08:09:43 07:13:00 Port Luis 15 08:23:45 07:31:00

  18. SCENARIO TIMELINE 5:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 6 5:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 6 Sea Level Readings - Maldives Diego Garcia 6:19-10:00 Addtl Sea Level Readings fr IO Stations Hourly Bulletins from PTWC / JMA • For Interim IOTWS System: • Basin-wide Watch => • Monitor sea levels across entire IO • No Warnings issued (so No Cancellation)

  19. Modeling Tsunami Propagation Makran Source

  20. THANK YOU

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