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TREMOVE ETISPLUS workshop

This document summarizes the development and calibration of various models related to transportation emissions and energy consumption, focusing on the ETISPLUS and TREMOVE frameworks. It presents methodologies for analyzing vehicle emission standards, fuel quality regulations, and public transport policies from a cost-effectiveness perspective. The research draws upon data from multiple sources, including SCENES, COWI, and PRIMES, to ensure accuracy and consistency. Key areas include elasticities in substitution, emissions functions, and the impact of policies on transport costs and welfare.

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TREMOVE ETISPLUS workshop

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  1. TREMOVEETISPLUS workshop Griet De Ceuster

  2. SUBSTITUTION ELASTICITIES source: general literature CALIBRATED on SCENES and TIF SPEED CONGESTION FUNCTIONS EMISSIONS FUNCTIONS (SPEED - FLOW) sources: ROAD: draft COPERT IV with adapted fuel cons. RAIL, AIR: TRENDS MOHRING FUNCTIONS module OCCUPANCY RATES IWW: preliminary ARTEMIS (PUBLIC TRANSPORT) LOAD FACTORS input data & functions source: SCENES + others output data consistency check PKM & TKM : 1995 = SCENES = TIF 2000 = TIF (+TRENDS, EUROSTAT) 2020 = SCENES (only for baseline 2030 = based on PRIMES growth rate baseline ) AIR EMISSIONS TRANSPORT DE MAND EMISSIONS PKM VKM detailed TKM VKM MODULE MODULE FUEL & ENERGY CONSUMPTION IWW 2000 ~ PRIMES / RAINS VKM increase VKM detailed TRANSPORT COST/KM per year shares (prices, taxes, subsidies) WTT EMISSION FACTORS source: SCENES, COWI + others LIFE CYCLE sources: PRIMES, RAINS, RAIL EMISSIONS ECOINVENT ROAD MODULE VEHICLE STOCK VEHICLE MODULE STOCK 1995 - 2005 ~ actual sales LIFE CYCLE 1995 = TRENDS STOCK IN 1995 EMISSIONS source: TRENDS + UIC SCRAPPAGE FUNCTIONS source: TRENDS + other EXTERNAL COST FACTORS source: CAFE CBA, GRACE SALES FUNCTIONS source: sales in recent years CAILBRATED on COWI 99-00 + TRENDS - WELFARE total transport MODULE EXPENSES, CS, PS, GOVERN. REVENUE WELFARE differences ETISPLUS

  3. TREMOVE 1 for DG ENV • … - 1999 • Developed by : KUL, DRI • Application in Auto-Oil II programme • Cost-effectiveness analysis of : • Vehicle emission standards • Fuel quality standards • Non-technical measures • Public transport subsidies, scrappage, … • Fuel taxes ETISPLUS

  4. TREMOVE 2.0–2.52 for DG ENV • 2002 - 2007 • Developed by : TML, KUL et al. • Cost-effectiveness analysis of : • EURO 5 standards • Car CO2 policy (2012, 2015 objectives) • Maritime policies (aftertreatment, …) • Plane taxes • Mid-term review White Paper DG TREN ETISPLUS

  5. TREMOVE 2.7 : GRACE • Released November 2007 • Development by TML • For : EC FP6 GRACE (coordinator ITS, Leeds) • Cost-effectiveness analysis of : • Km-charging policies (road and other modes) • Can be executed without software licenses ETISPLUS

  6. TREMOVE 3.0 : REFIT EC FP6 REFIT (coordinator : TNO) • Preliminary technical link between TREMOVE and TRANSTOOLS • TransTools is the new network-based forecasting model of the European Commission, developed by TNO, TRT, … • Development by TML and TRT • TML also developed the EDIP model ETISPLUS

  7. TREMOVE 3.1 for JRC • For JRC-IPTS • TML, Okö-Institut and Fraunhofer ISI • New car ‘materials’ module • Calculating material flows related to car and replacements parts • Linked by JRC to IMPROcar LCA model • 4 Policy simulations : • Promoting smaller & lighter cars • Accelerated scrappage & replacement ETISPLUS

  8. TREMOVE 3.2 : iTREN EC FP6 iTREN-2030 (coordinator : ISI) • Developing a common 2030 forecast with : • TRANSTOOLS • POLES : Energy / technology model (JRC-IPTS,TRT) • ASTRA : Economy / transport model (Fraunhofer ISI) • Automated data exchange with TRANS-TOOLS • Extension with new car technologies • Hydrogen • Electric ETISPLUS

  9. TREMOVE 3.3 for ENV • Taxes and prices • VAT rates & evolution • National taxation • Fuel prices: IEA extract • Demand baseline: from iTREN • Rail stock from EX-TREMIS • Road stock from FLEETS • BY set to 2005 • Maritime model • Updated with EX-TREMIS values • Issue in demand (buses) originating from iTREN • Validation • Calibration • Database clean-up • Alternative baseline: data is set • Sensitivity ETISPLUS

  10. TREMOVE 3.4 for JRC • Baseline update • Purpose: DG MOVE White Paper ETISPLUS

  11. GLADYSTEETISPLUS workshop Griet De Ceuster

  12. Gladyste • The new TREMOVE • World • System dynamics • Demand module independent from other sources • Demand can also be exogenous • Vensim • Ready by end of 2010 ETISPLUS

  13. Features • Copy of TREMOVE • Additional demand module • Additional 24 world regions (+33 European zones) • 4 modules: Demand, Fleet, Energy Use / Emissions, and Welfare ETISPLUS

  14. Linkages with other models • Copy of TREMOVE • Demand module partly based on ASTRA (not identical) • Link with POLES developed • Export to Poles • Link with TRANS-TOOLS will be developed • Overrule Gladyste demand and replace by Trans-Tools demand ETISPLUS

  15. ETISPLUS

  16. Screenshot FLEET module ETISPLUS

  17. Thank you!

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