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OBSERVING SYSTEM SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS

Observing System Simulation Experiments for Hurricanes: Early results and plans for the future Robert Atlas NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and Zhaoxia Pu Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah. OBSERVING SYSTEM SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS.

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OBSERVING SYSTEM SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS

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  1. Observing System Simulation Experiments for Hurricanes:Early results and plans for the futureRobert AtlasNOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological LaboratoryandZhaoxia PuDept. of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah

  2. OBSERVING SYSTEM SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS Objectives for Hurricanes: • Evaluate the potential impact of new (proposed) observing systems on hurricane track and intensity predictions. • Evaluate tradeoffs in the design and configuration of proposed observing systems (e.g. coverage, resolution, accuracy and data redundancy). • Optimize sampling strategies for current and future airborne and space-based observing systems. • Evaluate and improve data assimilation and vortex initialization methodology for hurricane prediction.

  3. Regional OSSEs “Regional Natural Run”

  4. Earlier OSSEs for Hurricanes 1. Global OSSEs Using 3&1/2 month fvGCM Nature run at .5 deg resolution - aimed at evaluating the potential impact of Doppler Lidar winds on hurricane track prediction 2. Global Quick OSSE using .25 deg fvGCM 5-day forecast as Nature - aimed at evaluating impact of wind profile observations on the forecast track for an Ivan like hurricane and in testing hypotheses relating to hurricane track forecasting 3. Regional Quick OSSE using mm5 nature run - aimed at evaluating the potential impact of HIRAD on hurricane surface wind analyses 4. Regional Quick OSSEs using WRF ARW 3-5 day forecasts as nature runs -aimed at evaluating potential value of AIRS, Doppler Wind Lidar or other data for hurricane intensity forecasting.

  5. Global OSSE with fvGCM Nature NATURE RUN: FVGCM at .5 deg resolution for the period from September 11 to December 31, 1999. GLOBAL DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM USED: GEOS-3, 1 X 1 deg horizontal resolution GEOS-4, 1 X 1.25 deg horizontal resolution SPINUP:35 days PERIOD OF ASSIMILATION: Sept. 11 - Oct. 31, 1999 CALIBRATION EXPERIMENTS (REAL and SIMULATED): CTRL (Conventional Data + TOVS + CTW + QSCAT) CTRL-ALL SAT (Conventional Data only) CTRL-SAT TEMP (Conventional Data + CTW + QSCAT) CTRL-QSCAT (Conventional Data + TOVS + CTW) SIMULATED DATA EXPERIMENTS: CTRL + Lidar Winds (with varying coverage)

  6. Potentional Impact of new space-based observations on a Hurricane Track Prediction Tracks Green: actual track Red: forecast beginning 63 hours before landfall with current data Blue: improved forecast for same time period with simulated wind lidar

  7. SUMMARY OF LIDAR WIND EXPERIMENTS USED IN THE HURRICANE 1 CASE STUDY PERIOD OF ASSIMILATION: Sept. 11 - Sept. 14, 1999 FIVE DAY FORECASTS: From Sept. 14, 1999 LIDAR WIND EXPERIMENTS: CTRL + Full Lidar (complete profile and + / - 1100 km swath) CTRL + Full Lidar (no data after Sept. 13, 1999, 0.0z) CTRL + Full Lidar (no data before Sept. 13, 1999, 0.0z) CTRL + Upper Lidar (500mb and above) CTRL + Lower Lidar (1000 - 700mb) CTRL + Full non-scanning Lidar

  8. Description of Quick OSSE Experiments Nature Run : fvGCM .25 x .36 deg horizontal resolution, start on Sep. 11, 2004 at 12z Observations : simulated from the Nature Run for Sep. 11, 12z – Sep.12, 12z, 2004. Data Assimilation Experiments : fvSSI , 1 x 1.25 deg resolution, ran Sep. 11, 00z – Sep.12, 12z, 2004. Control - compliment of operationally globally observed data, including satellite temperature profiles Lidar - Idealized wind profiles added in the vicinity of the hurricane 5 Day Forecasts : Started on Sep.11, 12z, Sep.12, 00z and 12z ran at both 1 x 1.25 deg and .25 x .36 deg horizontal resolution

  9. Current and planned OSSEs for hurricanes • OSSEs to determine potential impact of UAS and to optimize sampling strategies. (ESRL, AOML, RSMAS) • Sensor Web OSSEs (NASA GSFC, SWA, AOML, RSMAS) • OSSEs in support of HFIP to evaluate sampling strategies for hurricane reconnaissance, new observing systems, modeling and data assimilation and predictability. (NOAA, Academia) Current work aimed at developing rigorous regional OSSE system for USWRP OSSE Testbed.

  10. High Resolution Hurricane Nature Run: WRF Simulation Embedded Inside the ECMWF Nature Run 60 levels; 3km resolution; double-moment microphysics; advanced radiation schemes. RI

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