Status of Food Security, Trade and the Economic Health of Fisheries

1. Status of Food Security, Trade and the Economic Health of Fisheries • Procida • 3-4 October 2011 • Audun Lem

2. Outline • Fish and food security • Consumption • Generation of employment & income • Trade – exports - imports • Trade – supply - demand • Economic health of fisheries • Resource sustainability & fisheries management • Demand & prices • Conclusions

3. 1. Background (FAO, 2010)

4. Undernourishment in 2010, by Region (millions) (FAO, 2010)

5. Food Security • “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (FAO, 2010) • Undernutrition • mortality, morbidity, stunting and wasting • Micronutrient deficiencies • immune functions, cognitive development, growth, reproductive performance and work productivity

6. Fish & Food Security • Fish can increase food security through: • Domestic consumption • Generation of employment and income • Trade • Food based approaches focus on increasing direct consumption to address the immediate determinant of undernutrition • Interventions in fishing and aquaculture have focused on indirect impact of improving household food security (employment/processing/trade).

7. What the Fisheries Sector is Facing Today • Marine Fisheries: • Large proportion either fully utilized or over-exploited • Limited potential for increased production • In-Land Fisheries: • Some stocks collapsed or collapsing • Bu many remain lightly exploited • Probable under-reporting of catches • Aquaculture: • Fastest-growing animal food-producing sector in the world • Global per-capita aquaculture production increased from 0.9kg in 1970 to 8.6 kg in 2011

8. FAO databases on 392 stocks • 6% underexploited, • 20% moderately exploited, • 50% fully exploited, • 15% overfished, • 6% depleted, • and 2% are recovering.

9. Fish Consumption (kg/capita/year) FAO, 2009

10. Employment and Income • Capture Fisheries • a main source of household income • prevents serious food insecurity • increases fish consumption (frequent poor nutritional status of fishing communities) • important for seasonal part-time income and diversifying livelihoods • Aquaculture • raises household income

11. Food Security and Fish Trade The long term sustainability of trade depends on the sustainability of the fishery resource Exports generate foreign exchange, employment and income, but can decrease the availability for domestic consumption Society is likely to gain overall from exports, but there may be distributional consequences

12. Fish Trade • Countries that are large exporters of fish also import fish • China, the largest producer and exporter, now also a major importer: nr. 6 (after US, Japan, Spain, France, Italy)

13. 2. TRADE – SUPPLY - DEMAND

14. World fish production

15. World Fish Production aquaculture catch FAO

16. Per caput food supply

17. World aquaculture production 1950-2011: strong growth but slowing down aquaculture

18. Aquaculture producers China

19. WORLD TRADE

20. World Fish Trade: Export Value- in 1000 USD - developing developed

21. LARGE EXPORT DECLINE 2009: USD 95.6 BILLION • 2009: A difficult year for prices and margins • - 7.5 % down in value (USD) • but 2009 volumes were only moderately down • 0.6 % in volume (live weight conversion) • DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: • 52 % SHARE OF EXPORTS

22. 2010: new growth, new record • ESTIMATED EXPORTS: USD 105 billion (+ 10%) • Volume: 55.2 million tons (+0.5%) • It is prices and margins that increase more than volume

23. 2011 forecast ? • Exports USD 108.4 billion (+3.1%) • Export volume 55.4 million tons (+0.4%) (live weight) • New forecast because of down turn: • Exports USD 106-107 billion • Export volume 55.3 million tons

24. Main fish exporters 2010 (value)

25. Main fish importers (2009) sharp decline • Japan USD 13.3 bill. - 10.7 % • US USD 13.9 bill. - 7.3 % • EU USD 40.4 bill. - 9.6 % • Total big 3 USD 67.6 bill. - 9.3 % • Total world USD 99.3 bill. - 8.1%

26. Main fish importers (2010)new record imports • Japan USD 14.9 bill. + 12.0 % • US USD 15.5 bill. + 11.5 % • EU USD 43.0 bill. + 6.4 % • Total big 3 USD 73.4 bill. + 8.6 % • Total world USD 109.7 bill. + 10.5%

27. Fish market trends • Japan: long-term decline in fish consumption and imports Meat>fish . • high consumption but falling: 65 kg/kaput • below 3 million tons in 2007 • USA: long-term growth, is overtaking Japan as # 1 country • rising population and consumption /kaput 24 kg • EU: long-term growth: # 1 market (EU 27) • expanding population, stable consumption at 20 kg • rising import dependence • New markets/emerging economies • Strong growth: Russia, Brazil, India, Asian markets

29. Distribution • 68 % of world imports by three markets • within these markets: supermarkets represent 50-85 % of retail sales • concentration of sales whereas industry remains fragmented • tendency in developing countries: urbanization

30. Role of China in production

31. Commodity prices • fish versus other food ?

32. FAO Food Price Index Source: FAO

33. FAO Food Price Index (excl. fish) Source: FAO

34. FAO Fish Price Index Data source: Norwegian Seafood Export Council

35. Food vs Fish Price Index Food/Meat: 2002-2004= 100 Fish/salmon: 2005 = 100

36. FUTURE FISH PRICES ? • DEMAND: slowly rising • because of population growth • small underlying increase in per kaput consumption • SUPPLY • capture: stable, not increasing in short/medium term • aquaculture: increasing but declining growth • unknowns: climate change, disease, but also technology improvements • PRICE IMPACT ? • most probably slightly higher prices, esp. for aquaculture because of limits on feed supply • price cycles in commodity markets • industry profitability through product development, technological innovation and cost reduction, targeted marketing

37. 3. Economic health of fisheries • Sustainability: • Environmental: the resource • Social: the people • Economic: the companies • Long term economic sustainability • linked to state of fish stocks and effective fisheries management • linked to sustainable trade • linked to demand situation and prices

38. FAO databases on 392 stocks • 6% underexploited, • 20% moderately exploited, • 50% fully exploited, • 15% overfished, • 6% depleted, • and 2% are recovering.

39. Fisheries management • National: • Science • Strong national institutions • National legislation • International • Science • International instruments • FAO: Code of conduct for responsible fisheries

40. Example of intl. instrument • Agreement on Port States Measures to Prevent, Deter and Eliminate Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated Fishing. • foreign fishing vessels must comply if they want to use ports in other countries • national authorities to take action against foreign boats involved in illegal fishing in their own ports. • Adopted by FAO Conference in 2009 • 25 ratifications needed for implementation

41. CONCLUSIONS • Fish a vital role in food security • through direct consumption • through employment in production, processing and trade • and frequently important as an employer of women • through trade, exports and imports • Fish production is increasing, thanks to aquaculture: 49 % share in 2011 in food fish • long–term trend in fish trade is positive • big 3 markets import 68 % but declining. Growing emerging markets incl. Russia. • Economic health of fisheries • state of fish stocks • role of effective fisheries management and strong institutions • good science, effective national and international instruments • Future: opportunities • rising demand because of population and economic growth • rising supply thanks to aquaculture • rising prices because of demand, and higher feed costs

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