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CMAQ Madrid Results: Performance Analysis for Regional PM Model and Emission Sensitivity Simulations

This study evaluates the results of CMAQ-MADRID simulations for two episodes in 1999, analyzing sulfate concentrations at Big Bend using 4-km and 12-km models. Performance evaluation shows satisfactory results for October but unsatisfactory for August, with ongoing investigations into sensitivity to boundary conditions. Emission sensitivity simulations reveal potential impact of emissions reductions from various states. The schedule outlines completion targets for tracer simulations, emission sensitivity studies, and performance evaluations.

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CMAQ Madrid Results: Performance Analysis for Regional PM Model and Emission Sensitivity Simulations

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  1. BRAVO Results of CMAQ-MADRID Betty Pun, Christian Seigneur & Shiang-Yuh Wu AER, San Ramon Naresh Kumar EPRI, Palo Alto 10 October 2002

  2. CMAQ Modeling Domain

  3. CMAQ Simulations • Two episodes • 5-15 October 1999 • 10-25 August 1999 • Simulations • Tracers: completed • Base PM simulations: completed, revised August simulation in progress • Emission sensitivity simulations: in progress

  4. October Episode, 4-km and 12-km Simulations, Time Series Sulfate (mg/m3) at Big Bend

  5. October Episode, 4-km and 12 km Simulations, Regression Analysis Sulfate (mg/m3) at Big Bend 4-km simulation 12-km simulation

  6. October Episode, 12-km SimulationRegression Analysis Sulfate (mg/m3), 39 Sites

  7. Chemical Composition at Big Bend

  8. Sulfate on 11 & 12 October

  9. PM2.5 on 11 & 12 October

  10. O3 on 11 & 12 October

  11. August Episode, 4-km SimulationTime Series Sulfate (mg/m3) at Big Bend Oct 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

  12. August Episode, 4-km SimulationRegression Analysis Sulfate (mg/m3) at Big Bend

  13. CMAQ Performance • First performance evaluation for a regional PM model with a comprehensive database (daily speciated data with good spatial coverage) • Performance for October PM simulation is satisfactory, at least for BBNP • Performance for August PM simulation is not satisfactory; sensitivity to boundary conditions is being investigated using REMSAD results to provide better temporal resolution

  14. Emission Sensitivity Simulations • 100% reduction in SOx emissions from • Mexico • Texas • Other states • 50% reduction in NOx, VOC and CO emissions from • Mexico • Texas • Other states

  15. CMAQ Schedule • Tracer simulation results: Analysis completed in October • Base PM simulations: August simulation revised by late November, performance evaluation drafted by end of November • SOx emission sensitivity simulations for October episode completed by late November • SOx emission sensitivity simulations for August episode completed by mid-January (revised simulation) • NOx/VOC/CO emission sensitivity simulations completed by January (October episode) and February (August episode)

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