The future of energy in Germany – Towards an age of renewables

1. The future of energy in Germany – Towards an age of renewables Dr. Georg Maue, First Secretary Climate and Energy Policy Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany 2300 M Street NW, Suite 300 , Washington, DC 20037 Tel: +1 (202) 4715 538 Fax: +1 (202) 298 4391 E-mail: wi-6@wash.diplo.de

2. Introducing the „Energiewende“ (1. Message) There is abundance of Renewables – even in Germany RE Potential Demand in addition: with energy efficiency we only need a fraction of the today’s demand!

3. US, Spain have large solar potentials, but even with Germany‘s small potential...

4. ...huge installed capacities are possible and efficient (provided a policy support) Today‘s installed PV Cap. in Germany is over 27.000 MW !

5. an example for US

6. Introducing the „Energiewende“ (2. Message) The Energiewende is a VERY COMPLEX PROCESS • Why? • It means transforming almost all of today's energy supply • it involves all players in the energy business and all consumers • it is about a new design of supply and demand chains and patterns • etc. • This entails.. • mechanisms and costs/benefits are hardly understood • misleading messages by politics, lobbies and media

7. Introducing the „Energiewende“ (3. Message) The Energiewende offers immense BENEFITS for economy, environment and energy security • Why? • efficiency saves energy demand and costs • new investments, new jobs, more innovation and research • costs for traditional fuels and power plants rise, those for RE installations decrease • drastic reduction of emissions (GHG and pollutants) • This entails: • all serious projections show the Energiewende path is clearly advantageous compared to the business as usual for economy, society and climate

8. The BASIS: A triangle of three energy policy goals Economic efficiency Guidelines for political action Supply security Environmental compatibility

9. The status quo Energy supply in Germany today: • Not secure We import 70% infinite energy sources • Not efficient  Fossil fuels cost rise, they have high external costs • Not environmentally compatible Greenhouse gases and air pollutants  we need to restructure towards sustainable energy supply

10. What does sustainable energy policy mean? • secure: sustainable and reliable energy ressources (less imports) • economic: long term at affordable prices (no/less external costs) • environmental friendly: no/less emissions of pollutants or greenhouse gases • only renewable energies meet these criteria • energy concept concentrates on renewable energies and • energy efficiency (in order to reduce the denominator (= energy demand))

11. The „Generation-Programme“The German Government's Energy Concept The Energy Concept:Approach: Long-term, comprehensive and specific: • Long-term: Timeline 2050 • Comprehensive: All relevant sectors • Specific: • Targets • Measures: ca. 180 specific measures • Funding • Monitoring

12. Targets of the energy concept

13. Energy Concept: A three-pronged approach 1. Renewable energy sources: • Rapid, continuous expansion • Cost-efficient and environmentally friendly 3. Efficiency: • Reduce energyconsumption • Ensure efficiency 2. Future grids: • Flexible and powerful • Integration of electricity from renewable sources

14. Effects of the German nuclear phase out • In the aftermath of the Fukushima catastrophe Germany shut down the 7 eldest NPP • The German Energy Transformation in June 2011 laid down to speed up the implementation of the energy concept and to phase out nuclear power faster (similar to the 2001 decision)

15. Effects of the German nuclear phase out Power companies, some industries and critics said this will: • let electricity prices (spot market and futures) explode, • CO2 certificate prices will increase (by 5 €/t CO2) • Germany will become net importer of electricity • the grid will collapse – black outs at Christmas • CO2 emissions will rise

16. The reality looks like: • after a short increase during spring, electricity prices on the stock market continued to fall and are at 5-years low

17. CO2 prices went down by 60 %!

18. Germany remains net electricity exporter

19. GHG emissions continued to decrease while economy rose

20. Compensation of NPP

21. Targets and Success so far with Renewable Energies

22. Summary The transformation of the German energy system (the „Energiewende“) • is needed to achieve sustainable energy supply • is beneficial:  for economy (costs, energy security), society (jobs) and climate • is a complex task, which needs a generation to implement it • needs political will and a programme:  the Energy Concept 2050 • Renewables, intelligent grids and energy efficiency are key !  If it happens in Germany, it can happen everywhere!