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October 2009 James M. Murphy CMB, CRI Chairman Q10 Capital

October 2009 James M. Murphy CMB, CRI Chairman Q10 Capital. How Did We Get Here? So Where Are We? What About The Capital Markets? Where Are We going?. "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the other forms.". System Wide Failure. How Did This Start?. What Started This?.

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October 2009 James M. Murphy CMB, CRI Chairman Q10 Capital

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  1. October 2009James M. Murphy CMB, CRIChairman Q10 Capital

  2. How Did We Get Here? So Where Are We? What About The Capital Markets? Where Are We going?

  3. "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the other forms."

  4. System Wide Failure

  5. How Did This Start?

  6. What Started This? • Government Policy • Everyone should own a home! • HUD Sets Affordable Housing Goals • Federal Reserve Lowers Rates • Fannie and Freddie Balloon Balance Sheets • $3.2 Trillion in debt – sold everywhere in the world • OFHEO Undermanned and Under Funded • Campaign contributions buy elected officials • Rating Agencies Fail to Do Their Jobs • Lenders and Wall Street Create New Products • Borrowers Take the Deal

  7. So Where Are We Today?

  8. "Nobody Knows the trouble I've seen. Grandpa can't pay the mortgage.”

  9. Quote of the Year…

  10. Employment Change in Thousands Top Ten and Bottom Ten States 2009

  11. Importance of Education to Employment

  12. If it’s about jobs, where are we in demand for basic property types? Office Retail Industrial Apartments

  13. Completions and Absorptions by Property Type

  14. Change In Asking Rents By Property Type Quarter to Quarter

  15. Commercial Property Cap Rates

  16. Office Market

  17. Industrial Market

  18. Retail Market

  19. Retail Market

  20. What About The Capital Markets?

  21. Loan Portfolio Comparison June 30, 2009

  22. CMBS Issuance

  23. Originations by Investor Group

  24. Total Debt Outstanding by Investor Group

  25. Where Are We Going?

  26. Non-Bank Maturities of Debt By Year

  27. Commercial Banks and Thrift Maturities

  28. Life Company Commercial Mortgage Maturities

  29. Commercial Real Estate Compared To Other Assets

  30. Yields for Comparative Asset Classes

  31. National Office Market

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