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The Past as Prologue: Partisanship and Competition in Recent Elections (2)

The Past as Prologue: Partisanship and Competition in Recent Elections (2). Latinos and the 2008 Elections Lecture 8 October 23, 2008. Prologues. Conclude viewing Viewing of CNN Election 2000: 36 Days that Gripped the Nation. Lessons from Conclusion of 2000 Race.

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The Past as Prologue: Partisanship and Competition in Recent Elections (2)

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  1. The Past as Prologue:Partisanship and Competition in Recent Elections (2) Latinos and the 2008 Elections Lecture 8 October 23, 2008

  2. Prologues • Conclude viewing • Viewing of CNN Election 2000: 36 Days that Gripped the Nation

  3. Lessons from Conclusion of 2000 Race • Ballot design and voting technologies • Does “every vote count?” • Bush v. Gore (new role of courts?) • Campaigns invest in potential legal challenges 2008 (and beyond) • Renewed attention to voter eligibility • The Electoral College and the dominance of the “battleground state”

  4. Bush v. Gore – A New Set of Rules? • Issues before the court • Are recounts constitutional? • If they are unconstitutional, what’s the remedy? • Holding • State violated equal protection clause of U.S. constitutions 14th Amendment – no equal standard across Florida counties • No remedy – the date of the Supreme Court’s decision was the day that Florida had established as a deadline • Majority opinion asserts -- “limited to the present circumstances” or could place the courts in the center of election disputes

  5. Questions to Consider for This Week’s Readings • Why don’t eligible Latinos naturalize? • Were citizenship-eligible Latinos to naturalize, how would they change the Latino vote (think in terms of impact and in terms of issues)? • What issues shape Latino vote choice in 2008?

  6. Stages of the Presidential Campaign • Pre-campaign • Candidate self-selection • Key time point – previous mid-term election • Primaries • Candidate selection, usually early in primary season (late Winter) • Candidate positioning and fundraising • Convention • Opportunity for party elites to meet and greet • Uninterrupted opportunity to state message • General election

  7. 2000 and 2004 Primaries • Democrats seeking to create opportunity for Latino voice (2004) • Latino Democrats joined the Gore and Kerry bandwagons earlier and stronger • They did little to campaign for their votes, though • Result –untested in terms of outreach • 2004 – Sharpton (African American candidate) didn’t appeal to Latino voters • Black plurality always went to Kerry • Latinos supported only marginally more than whites

  8. Latinos and the Party Conventions, 2000 and 2004 • Number of Latino delegates steadily growing, particularly on Democratic side • 2000 • Los Angeles site of Democratic convention • Bush assured a prominent symbolic place for Latinos entertainers and political leaders • 2004 • Bill Richardson, Chair of Democratic Convention • Latino delegates did organize and saw daily visits from party leaders • Few prominent Latino speakers during prime time • Latino delegates, like most delegates, window dressing • Conventions offer little opportunity to shape candidate’s policy objectives

  9. Democratic Party Delegates, by Race/Ethnicity, 1984-2008

  10. Where Were Latinos at the Start of the Fall Campaign? • 2000 & 2004 – competitive states not the big Latino states • Latinos less courted that in 1996 • Gore and Kerry showed little Latino outreach • Campaigns moved to Tennessee, Boston, and Austin • Bush (2001) made a major symbolic proposal – the guest worker program – but had done little to follow up • Kerry tried to reach out as a Catholic and through Teresa Kerry (an immigrant from Mozambique who ancestry is Portuguese)

  11. Latino Votes in the 2000 and 2004 Elections • Latino voices muted (in federal races) • Outcome of elections was out of the control of Latino communities • In states where unity and turnout could have led to influence, the evidence is mixed • Concerns about exit polls will make the Latino voice a subject of continuing dispute

  12. Latino Vote Share, 2004

  13. These Results Somewhat Disputed William C. Velasquez Research Institute Exit Poll • Nation • Kerry – 67.7 percent • Bush – 31.4 percent • Sample – 1,179 respondents in 56 precincts in 14 states • Florida • Kerry – 52.0 percent • Bush – 45.7 percent • Sample – 1,147 respondents in 45 precincts in nine counties

  14. Who in the Latino Community Shifted Between 2000 and 2004? • Toward Bush • Texas Latinos • Religiously-observant Latinos • 2nd generation (the children of immigrants) • Toward Kerry/the Democrats • Florida Latinos • 2nd generation Cubans • Unique to 2004 • Two Senate races with Latino candidates

  15. Latino Vote ShareSenate Races, 2004

  16. Questions for Next Week’s Readings • Under what circumstances can Latinos influence the outcomes of statewide elections? • Think about different forms of influence • And different ways that influence can be evaluated • How could electoral rules/practices be changed to enhance Latino influence?

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