1. Sampling 12/6/2012

2. Readings • Chapter 8 Correlation and Linear Regression (Pollock) (pp 199- 206) • Chapter 6 Foundations of Statistical Inference (Pollock) (pp 122-135)

3. Final Exam • SEC 1 • December 12th (Wednesday) • 1:30 pm - 3:30 pm • SEC 2 • December 11th (Tuesday) • 1:30 pm - 3:30 pm

4. Final Paper • Due 12/7/2012 by 11:00AM- Doyle 226B • Turnitin Copy by 11:59PM on 12/7

5. Reminders for the Paper • Paste outputs into the paper as images • Dataset information is in Chapter 1 and in the appendix. GSS and NES also has information on line • If running x-tabs don’t forget column %’s

6. Opportunities to discuss course content

7. Office Hours For the Week • When • Friday 11-1 • No office hours during final exam week

8. Course Learning Objectives • Students will learn the basics of polling and be able to analyze and explain polling and survey data • Students will learn the basics of research design and be able to critically analyze the advantages and disadvantages of different types of design.

9. Data Collection Method I Personal Interviews

10. Cluster Sampling (How we conduct it) • People Move, Houses Don’t • Random Samples of known units • Each unit in the cluster has a chance

11. Personal Interviews • Advantages • Disadvantages

12. Method II Mail Surveys

13. Collecting a Sample • Every address is in our frame • Often Used to target specific Groups • Less popular for “hot topics”

14. About Mail • Advantages • Disadvantages

15. How Most Surveys are Done Today Telephone Surveys

16. Telephone Surveys • Every Phone Number has an equal Chance of Being Selected • It is important that you select the right people

17. Advantages of Phone • Fast • CATI • Closed Ended Questions

18. Why it is not a true random sample • Some people do not have phones • Some people simply will not answer (75% refusal rate)

19. Surveys miss out on • Poll Sampling excludes many—minorities, young people, and new Americans • Angry White Men

21. Who we often get

22. Problems of Cell Phones • Some polls Exclude them • You have to pay people to participate • Some polls contact you and ask you to call back

24. This makes it less random We have to survey a lot more people than we used to

25. Not All Sampling Frames are Created Equal

28. Low Response rates and trying to get likely voters slow things down and drive up costs.

29. Other surveys

30. Modern Internet Surveys • Combine RDD and the Internet • Very Fast • Problems (24% do not have internet access)

31. Exit Polls • Use a random selection of polling places • Quick Recall and Fast Data • Problems (early voting)

32. So Should we follow the polls?

33. Verify all Polls • Who Conducted it • How many they sampled • How they sampled • Specific question wording

34. In 2012, they were pretty good

35. Always Check • Who sponsored the poll • How they got the sample • How big was the sample • Specific questions