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STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS

STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS. OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND ENTERPRISE SERVICES November 1, 2014* Shelly Paulk Revenue Analyst. *To be updated after official release of documents from the December meeting of the State Board of Equalization.

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STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS

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  1. STATE BUDGET OUTLOOKMULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND ENTERPRISE SERVICES November 1, 2014* Shelly Paulk Revenue Analyst *To be updated after official release of documents from the December meeting of the State Board of Equalization.

  2. GENERAL REVENUE TRENDSINCOME VS. EXPENDITURES(In Millions) (3.66%) (2.3%) (2.56%) (2.88%)

  3. General Revenue Fund SourcesTrend Based Projections, In Millions(TO BE UPDATED WITH DEC. BOE PROJECTIONS/ESTIMATES) FY-2016 – FY-2017 Ave. 4.3% Growth Ave. 6.5% Growth Ave. 1.3% Growth Ave. 5.1% Growth Ave. 4.3% Growth OMES ACTUALS 10-YEAR NORMALIZED TREND–BASED PROJECTIONS JUNE BOE EST. SOURCES SHOWN ARE TOTALS – NOT REDUCED FOR OHLAP OR ROADS FUNDING, LESS DEFERRED GP TAX CREDITS

  4. General Revenue Growth – 5 Major Sources(In Millions, With % of Change From Prior Year) (Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax) (TO BE UPDATED WITH DEC. BOE PROJECTIONS/ESTIMATES) 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.6% 6.0% 0.5% 1.1% 10.6% JUNE BOE ESTIMATE Based on OMES 10-Yr Normalized Trend-Based Projections Less Deferred GP Gas Tax Credits, plus OHLAP & ROADS Funding ACTUALS

  5. PROJECTIONS OF GRF DECLINE AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL COLLECTIONS ACTUALS PROJECTIONS

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