Prospective Applications for Converging Technologies in Nano-Bio-Info Systems (PACT-NBIS)

1. Prospective Applications for Converging Technologies in Nano-Bio-Info Systems (PACT-NBIS) Expert Panel- Scoping Results Jack Smith, Director S&T Foresight OCE April 30, 2007

2. What is Foresight? A set of strategic tools that support government and industry decisions with adequate lead time for societal preparation and strategic response. • Anticipates multiple, plausible futures • 5 – 25 year time horizon • A rehearsal for potential futures • Accommodates uncertainty & diversity • Highlights emerging opportunities & threats

3. Foresight Tools • Environmental Scanning • Scenario Planning • Technology Mapping and Road-mapping • Expert Technical Panels • Robust Factor Analysis and Strategies Development • Web Virtual Conferences • Computerized Modelling and Dynamic Simulation

4. Foresight Applications • Energy & Environment Scenarios– Royal Dutch Shell, British Petroleum, International Energy Agency, World Business Council Sustainable Development • Investment in Next Generation Technologies: Finland, Germany, France, Ireland, Japan, Korea • Complex Multi-Sectoral PolicyIssues – e.g. infectious diseases, coastal zones, convergent technologies: UK Foresight, European Community • Global Security &Asymmetric Threats – US National Intelligence Council, National Reconnaissance Office, Proteus-US Army War College and Naval Postgraduate School, Department Homeland Security

5. ONSA Foresight2004 - 07

6. ONSA Connections with Global Foresight Networks • USA National Science Advisor, Cyber Security Task Force, National Science Foundation, National Intelligence Council, Director of National Intelligence • UK Chief Scientistand Foresight Office • Finland and Sweden: Finnsight 2015, Swedish Foresight Laboratory – Teknisk Framsyn • European Commission DG Research: Euro Research Area Foresight Network; Institute for Prospective Technology Studies, Framework Program 7 • NISTEPJapan; KISTEPKorea • APEC Centre for Technology Foresight , Industrial Science and Technology and Energy Working Groups • UN University Millennium Project • Germany Futur; France Futuris

7. Define Project Topic Foresight Process Overview Review Current Situation Identify Key Lenses Answer Challenge Questions Populate Each Scenario Identify Change Drivers Backcast to Present Select Critical Drivers Synthesis & Recommendations Identify Scenarios

8. Three Revolutions in Science Nanotechnology ORNL Cray X1 Advanced Computation Systems Biology

9. 1 nm Electronic properties: Devices Structural properties: Composites Carbon Nanotubes: Convergent Potentials • Strongest material known to man • 100 times stronger than steel,only one-sixth the weight • Stiffness-to-weight ratio 40x higherthan that of aluminum • Electrical conductivity betterthan copper • Thermal conductivity greaterthan diamond • Hollow:gas storage, drug delivery • Water filtration • Actuationdemonstrated • The best fieldemitters known • Already developedfor field emission displays, lighting • Molecular wires • Semiconductingor metallic • Single-electrontransistors demonstrated • Ballistic transport(109 A/cm2) –up to 1 mA per tube! Courtesy of Battelle - Dave Geohegan, ORNL

10. Controlled Bio-Energy Convergence Post-genomic biology offers the promise of controlled design of bio-energy systems The Billion-Ton Vision: Biomass Could Displace 30% or More of Our Current Transportation Fuel Needs

11. 107 105 106 104 103 102 5 Years Today Performance Computer Storage Networks 20 10 0 15 5 Years Growth in Performance Computing, Storage & Networking Computational Support for Convergence • Modeling and simulation has joined theory and experiment as a “third leg” of science • Previously “impossible” problems can now be solved • Climate change • Fusion design • Protein folding • Approaching human brain power

12. Computational science will play a key role in enabling fusion research Computation & Convergence 10,000 1,000 100 10 1.0 0.1 Computer Performance (Tflop/s) 5 years 10 years

13. Trends in Nanotechnology • Smart materials with nano films, structures • Integration of functions and structure in membranes, fabrics, fibers, self powered entities, biomimetic materials • New environmental leaps in performance: e.g water filtration and purification, biocidals, bioremediation and decontamination • Nano sensor networks, tracking capacities – nano-electromechanics (eg HVAC embedded) • Wearable personalized nano sensors with data and communications capabilities • Energy and power efficiencies improvements, battery power management • Smart dust capability for widespread human , environments surveillance • Computational devices embedded in consumer, commercial goods • Functional, programmable nanostructures for controlled drug delivery, performance of implants, protheses • New devices, building materials and fabrics that incorporate nano film solar power and are climate responsive

14. Trends in Biotechnology • Control, improvements in living organisms • Bio-sensing at the micro and nano level, micro and nano electromechanics • Integration with wireless, RFID, photonics-molecular level cameras • Tissue engineering, artificial organs, implants and protheses • Targeted drug delivery and use of in vitro capacities • Rapid scaleable bio-assays for molecule ID, medical diagnosis and forensics • Personalized medicine using large data sets of patient information, disease statistics, gene sequences and genotypes • Genetically modified insects to counter pathogen carriers • In silico- computer testing and comprehensive modelling for drug characteristics, side effects and receptor simulation – lab on chip • Molecular recognition –targeted drug delivery to organs, tumors

15. Trends in Infotechnology • Progress toward ubiquitous access and embeddedness; • Open source collaborative tools and deeper peer- to peer functionality; • Continued migration towards device and functional convergence; • Infobased manufacturing, claytronics for distributed fabrication; • Broader object based nodes and networks so everything can be smart and connected; • Pervasive E Science and dynamic simulation and modelling; • Gaming for personal and organizational decisions, learning; • Emerging horizons for faster, exponentially more powerful encryption, quantum information • Sustained infomarkets growth for surveillance, sensor networks, tracking capacities, nano-electromechanics • Wearable, implantable personalized micro-nano-bio info sensors with data and communications capabilities

16. What Are Converging Technologies? Converging Technologiesare applications having new and combined features that are derived from the intersection or combination of more than one enabling technology – general purpose - platform. This is where new functionalities become evident from combining platforms such as nanotechnology, information – advanced computation technology, systems biology with human innovations that enhance the design, facilitate collaboration and enable the delivery of new technological capabilities affecting human performanceand our ecological relationships with the world.

17. The Convergence Questions… Which prospective nano-bio-info and bio-nano-info convergent technology applications do industry and government need to pursue to ensure that Canada prospers in the future global economy; what are the prospective areas of application, products and impacts; how should these be stewarded; and what steps should be taken to accelerate their development?

18. Explore a range of applications involving emerging and converging technologies in the nano-bio-info and bio-nano-info innovation space; Examine the potential implications of these technologies for various sectors (energy- environment, agriculture-bio-products, health and life sciences, public safety and national security); Stimulate the development and/or refinement of future-oriented, innovative product and services strategies in participating organizations; Influence priority-setting for provincial and federal investments Provide insight to government with regard to converging technologies in order to be able to be appropriately prepared for these technologies (improved planning, regulatory environment, regulatory science, HR needs ) The Foresight will engage a diverse group of experts to: Key Activities 2007

19. Why Are Converging Technologies Important For Canada? • Technologies and markets of the future: be involved, or be overtaken; • Canada has evolved good research and knowledge- technology strengths in both nano and bio which should now be capitalized upon through a focused approach to commercialization; • Convergence identifies a space where new means of coordination are required – existing structures, budgets and expertise domains may be insufficient to the task; • Moving from “hewers of wood and drawers of water” up the knowledge value chain requires examining assets in a new context; • Risk mitigation and social weal: avoiding technology “miscasts” , early design of ethical and social benefits; • Essential tools for dealing with tough problems Canada will face: energy, climate change, health, security.

20. Focus on Key National Sectors The PACT Research Team identified12 technologies for detailed consideration by the Expert Panel in each of three application areas: • Energy and the Environment • Water, Food, and Bioproducts • Health and Life Sciences • Public Safety and Security (will be examined in Stage Two)

21. Nano-bio pharma-drug design, delivery Bio-computation, nano-imaging Bio-nano materials for health Bio-nano devices, arrays, diagnostics Bio-nano-genetic medicine Energy production and distribution Energy end use and device efficiencies Environmental stewardship + toxicology Environmental monitoring + sensing Bio-remediation, toxic removal Bio-fuels, bioenergy systems optimization Industrial bio-products Synthetic, bioengineered foods Bioterrorism and vaccines Food processing and packaging Food freshness and preservation Human Surveillance, smart “dust” All hazards detection, critical infrastructure monitoring, protection Climatic events warning and prediction Soldier capabilities and performance CT Applications-Sub Sectors

22. Research Methodology… Each technology/application area was evaluated by each member on three relevant dimensions: • Commercial Potential • Technical Feasibility • Public Policy Issues The midpoint of each team's evaluation are shown in the following 3 diagrams…

23. Anticipated Market Size Convergent Technologies for Energy and the Environment 2020 Anticipated Feasibility

24. Anticipated Market Size Convergent Technologies for Water, Food, and Bioproducts 2020 Anticipated Feasibility

25. Anticipated Market Size Convergent Technologies for Health and Life Sciences 2020 Anticipated Feasibility

26. Research Methodology… The most technically feasible technologies were then re-evaluated by the group with an eye to what plausible role Canada could play in their development out to 2020. Each of these technologies were evaluated as to their expected uptake in Canada, either by the public, the private market, or by relevant government agencies.

27. Canada's Role in Energy and the Environment 2020

28. Canada's Role in Food, Water, and Bioproducts 2020

29. Canada's Role in Health and Life Sciences 2020

30. Top Converging Technologies For Canada ? • "Clean Coal" technologies (science incubator) • Bio-nano-health Monitors (application developer) • Implantable Nanoarrays for Livestock (application developer) • "CO2 Sequestration" technologies (application developer) • Environmental nanobiosensors (producer/application developer) • On-time Nano-vaccinology (technology developer) • "Biomass  Biofuels" technologies (application developer) • Medical "Tricorder" (producer) • Smart Agri-bio Nanoencapsulation (tech. developer) • Food-tracking Nanotags (science incubator) • Directed Evolution Chips (technology developer)

31. A Partnership Approach • S&T Advisory Board Chaired by Dr. Arthur Carty and Dr. Ted Sargent • A multi-partner, collaborative project with federal, provincial, industry and academia; • Project development and foresight design by ONSA and Lead Sponsors; • Lead delivery agent is the Centre for Innovation Studies – THECIS, based in Calgary; • Includes shared events, strategy discussions with stakeholders, and aligned & contributed studies sponsored by individual organizations; • Linkages with similar foresight work in Europe, Asia and the US; OECD, APEC, TFRUNT • Outcomes to be applied to development of a Canadian nanotechnology strategy when policy authorities are ready and receptive