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  1. 11th Postgraduate Research Symposium Presentation Topic : Vaccination Deployment in Protection against Influenza A (H1N1) Infection PhD Student : Shang XIA Supervisor : Prof. Jiming LIU Co-supervisor : Dr. William Kwok-Wai Department of Computer Science March 15, 2010

  2. Content: 1 Research Motivation & Objectives 2 Epidemic Infection Dynamics 3 Vaccine Deployment Factors 4 SIV model and Vaccination Simulation 5 Conclusion Page 1/17

  3. Previous Work: Global Dynamics • Vaccination Dynamics • Disease Diffusion Dynamics Global Epidemic Spreading Dynamics Local Behaviors • Social Contact Network • Entities Infection Model • Decision Making Page 2/17

  4. Background: • Epidemic Spreading • Virus Infection: Individuals’ pathological infection. • Virus Transmission: Individuals’ contact relationship. • Epidemic Interventions • Vaccine Immunization: Individual immunized from virus infection. • Contact Limitations: Population’s contact landscape reconstructed. Page 3/17

  5. Research Concerns: • Simulation Model of Infection Dynamics • Pathological Infection: Heterogeneity of individual’s infection vulnerability. • ContactTransmission: Heterogeneity of Individuals’ contact frequency. • Evaluation of Vaccination Deployment • Vaccine Availability: • Total amount of vaccine doses. • Starting time of vaccine releasing. • Vaccine Distribution: Vaccination priority of each population group. Page 4/17

  6. S-I-V Model Virus Infection Model: • Model of Simulating Virus Infection Dynamics • Infection Status Label • Three status labels: Susceptible (S), Infected (I), Vaccinated (V). • Host Population Structure: • Population are divided into 6 Age Groups. • Heterogeneity of Vulnerability • Differentiation of Infection Rate and Recovery Rate for individual in each age group. • Heterogeneity of Transmissibility: Contact Frequency within and cross each Age Groups. Page 5/17

  7. (Ref. 1) Virus Infection Model (Con.) (Ref.3) (Ref. 2) Page 6/17

  8. Vaccination Deployment: • Factors in Vaccination Deployment Plan • Vaccine Availability • Total Amount of Vaccine The proportion of vaccinated population of the host. • Releasing Time The time of first batch of vaccine being released. • Vaccine Distribution • Vaccination Priority for each age groups. • Vaccination by Vulnerability. • Vaccination by Transmissibility. Page 7/17

  9. Vaccination Deployment (Con.) • Settings of Vaccination Deployment Page 8/17

  10. Simulation of Infection Dynamics • Three Stages of Infection Dynamics without Vaccination Page 9/17

  11. Simulation of Infection Dynamics • Incipient Infection Stage • The total percentage of infections is relatively low. • The speed of newly increased infection is slow. • Infection Transmission is confined within initial groups. • Infection Mass Spreading Stage • The number of newly increased infection are increased sharply. • The infection positive feedback through cross group contact. • Infection Stable Stage • The total number of infection is high. • The increase of newly infection is stagnant. • The cross group infection keep at a high level. Page 10/17

  12. Simulation of Vaccination Deployment • The impact of the Amount of Vaccine Page 11/17

  13. Simulation of Vaccination Deployment • The impact of the Vaccine Releasing Page 12/17

  14. Simulation of Vaccination Deployment • The impact of the Vaccine Distribution Page 13/17

  15. Simulation of Vaccination Deployment • The Impact of three Vaccine Deployment Factors Page 14/17

  16. Conclusion: • SIV Model • Pathological Infection: Heterogeneity of individual’s infection vulnerability. • ContactTransmission: Heterogeneity of Individuals’ contact frequency. • Evaluation of Vaccination Deployment Factors • Vaccine Availability: • Total amount of vaccine doses. • Starting time of vaccine releasing. • Vaccine Distribution: Vaccination priority of each population group. Page 15/17

  17. Reference: • C. Wroth and A. Wiles. Key population and vital statistics. Technical report, Office for National Statistics, 2007. • J. Mossong, ect. Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. PLoS Medicine, 5(3), March 2008. • E. Miller, K. Hoschler, ect. Incidence of 2009 pandemic influenza a h1n1 infection in england: a cross-sectional serological study. The Lancet, Early Online Publication. Page 16/17

  18. Q & A Thank You Very Much!