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Numerical Weather Prediction at Air Force Weather Agency

Numerical Weather Prediction at Air Force Weather Agency. Mark T. Surmeier, Deputy Director Air and Space Science Air Force Weather Agency Offutt AFB, NE. Overview. AFWA Mission Historical NWP Environment Historical NWP Environment: MM5 Current NWP Environment Next NWP Environment: WRF.

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Numerical Weather Prediction at Air Force Weather Agency

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  1. Numerical Weather Prediction at Air Force Weather Agency Mark T. Surmeier, Deputy Director Air and Space Science Air Force Weather Agency Offutt AFB, NE

  2. Overview • AFWA Mission • Historical NWP Environment • Historical NWP Environment: MM5 • Current NWP Environment • Next NWP Environment: WRF

  3. AFWA Mission Deliver to our Nation's combat forces anytime, anyplace, the highest quality, mission-tailored information, products, and services relating to the terrestrial and space environment....from the mud to the sun.

  4. Historical NWP Environment First Operational Use of NWP by USAF History, 4th Weather Group, Jan –Dec 1954 Introduced the Numerical Predictions Project Conceived at Air Force Cambridge Research Center (R&D) Programmed for operational establishment (USAF Weather Central) on 1 July 1954 at Andrews AF Base as a joint WBAN project Regional baroclinic model, 300km grid, US domain, 36hr IBM 701 (2048 36-bit words) IBM 701 http://www.columbia.edu/acis/history/701.html

  5. IBM 1401 http://www.columbia.edu/acis/history/1401.html http://www.air-and-space.com/20011114%20Saline%20Valley/1%2011%20B-52H%20contrail% Historical NWP Environment 1955:USAF Weather Central (NWP focus) Moved to Suitland, MD 1957:USAF Weather Central Moved to Offutt AFB, NE to Combine with the Global Weather Central 1958: First Automated “contrail” Forecasts 1960:Global Weather Central Purchased its First Computer: an IBM 7090 1961: Began Computer Wind Factor Forecasts; Added IBM 1401

  6. Historical NWP Environment 1962: Computerized Stratospheric Analyses and Numerical Cloud Forecasts; Added IT&T Automatic Data Exchange 6400 1963: First Automated Facsimile Charts; First Receipt of METSAT Data; Upgraded the IBM 7090 to an IBM 7094 1964:Implemented Quasi-geostrophic Prediction Model (SIXLVL) 381km grid; NH; 72hr forecast length

  7. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F-4_Phantom Historical NWP Environment 1965: DoD Established the Automated Weather Network—Worldwide High-Speed Data Collection; Added Terminal to Process METSAT Data from DOC Satellites 1966: Transmitted NWP-Based Products for Asian and European Theaters; Added a second IBM 7094 Computer 1967: Installed Four UNIVAC 1108 Computers 1970: Computer Flight Plans; First Operational PBL Model (185km grid; 7 layers; regional; 24hr forecast—7LVL)

  8. Historical NWP Environment 1972: AWS’s Medium Range Forecast Mission Moved from Suitland, MD to AFGWC; Added Fifth Computer—UNIVAC 1110 1974: AWS Primitive Equation (PE) Model (381km res., 7 layers, NH, 72hr forecast) 1976: Upgraded a UNIVAC 1108 to 1110; Added a 1110 1979: Replaced 3 UNIVAC 1108s w 2 UNIVAC 1100/81s 1982: Replaced 2 UNIVAC 1100/81s with 2 Sperry 1100/82s

  9. Cray XMP http://www.nsa.gov/museum/museu00018.cfm Historical NWP Environment • 1990: Replaced 1100/xxs by One UNISYS 2200/633—Called Weather Information Processing System (WIPS) • 1992: Relocatable Window Model (RWM) (46.3km, 16 lyrs, 36 hr)—Last component of AWAPS (started in ’86); Initialized w HIRAS 1986: Advanced Weather Analysis and Prediction System (AWAPS)--Global Spectral Model (GSM) 493km, 14lyrs, global; 96hr fcst; High-Resolution Analysis System (HIRAS); Cray X-MP Supercomputer 1987: Sperry 1100/82s Upgraded to UNISYS 1100/91s

  10. Historical NWP Environment 1992: Quote from one of our Tech Notes: “This [the computational cost] makes increasing the grid resolution an ineffective way to increase forecaster skill.” 1995: AFWA Stopped Using the GSM Global Model as Primary (part of the NAVAF Agreement--Used Navy NOGAPS Data; GSM Used as Back-up into 1997) 1996: RWM Run Operationally; First Visualizations; AWAPS-U (IBM SP1 Replaced Cray XMP) 1998: Discontinued RWM

  11. 21 Node IBM SP2(Blizzard) Historical NWP Environment: MM5 • 1996: • Expanded IBM SP-2 Production System to 21 Nodes • Accelerated System Growth 1995: Advanced Concept Technology Demo Using Penn State Univ./NCAR Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) & 14-Node IBM SP2 System Bosnia window run once per day (NOGAPS initialization) 25 s Levels 27 km Grid Resolution 24 Hour Forecast

  12. Historical NWP Environment: MM5 • Implemented worldwide relocatability (FSL/ANL assist) • Selected Contractor for Global Theater Weather Analysis and Prediction System (GTWAPS)--TRW; IBM SP-2 • 1998: • New IBM SP-2 Production system: 66 T4 nodes and 4 W3 nodes 1997: Added Southwest Asia & CONUS Windows

  13. Historical NWP Environment: MM5 1999: Ran 18 theaters per day; 80GB/day of model output data; over 90,000 GIF images Images are made available to meteorologists in the field through AFWIN (Air Force Weather Information Network) over the Internet

  14. Historical NWP Environment: MM5 1999: Parallelized MM5 and supporting applications-- significant decreases in application run times achieved Added IBM Silver node production system (110 nodes, 4 CPUs per node, 332MHz) Provided 2.5 Gigaflops per node GTWAPS evolved from a single system two-frame SP into a six-system eighteen-frame SP 41 s levels; 72 Hour Forecast; 36, 12, and 4 km Grid Spacing

  15. Historical NWP Environment: MM5 From 12 gigaflops in October 1997

  16. 36 - 12 - 4 Km NestingHigher resolution picks up storms over Balkans 12 km 36 km 4 Km Historical NWP Environment: MM5 1999:

  17. Historical NWP Environment: MM5 2000: Optimized windows Less overlap-- faster processing; more coverage Focused on current requirements (theaters, coverage, etc.) Projected processing timeline changes based on the cumulative effects of the following: OWS: Incremental receipt of MMLITE GriB files OWS: Incremental post-processing (all parameters) OWS: Incremental visualizations AFWA: Domain, Forecast Length, and Output Frequency changes based on new window plan Overall impact: products available at the OWSs roughly 1½ hours earlier 300,000 products per day

  18. Historical NWP Environment: MM5 2000: Visualization Boom MIKE: Interactive GrADS application (generated customizable 2-D B&W charts Added more post-processed data types Combined all visualization packages into single GUI Created 2-panel and 4-panel chart options IMaST: Increase Skew-T vertical resolution

  19. Historical NWP Environment: MM5 2001 Implemented Mesoscale Data Assimilation System (MDAS) and Multi-Variate Optimal Interpolation (MVOI) Tropical Storm Bogusing capability for Tropical Theaters (improved track and intensity forecasts for TCs worldwide) AFWA MM5 Window Configurations: Eighteen 45-km theaters (14 regular + 4 Tropical) (Also, T1 - T6 4x daily) Eleven 15-km nests Two 5-km nests Total of 37 windows every 12 hours 80% earth coverage; 98% land coverage

  20. Historical NWP Environment: MM5 2001 MM5 Model Runs Produced on Two Production Platforms, Prod 2 and Prod 3 94 IBM Silver nodes and 41 WH II nodes, respectively 625 Gflops

  21. Historical NWP Environment: MM5 2001 Added Capability to Initialize with NCEP’s AVN/MRF Parameterizations in use for MM5 Cumulus: Grell for 45 and 15km; explicit for 5km Planetary boundary layer (PBL): MRF Explicit moisture: Mixed phase (a.k.a. Reisner I) Radiation: Cloud radiation Ground temperature: Five layer soil Post-processing Raw MM5 output used to derive over 100 forecast parameters Algorithms developed by AFWA and external labs AFWIN products (over 400,000 per day; 170,000 GrADS and 231,660 Vis5D) TrimGriB capability (tailored gridded data sets)

  22. Historical NWP Environment: MM5 2001 Objective and Subjective Verification of MM5 Integration of WRF Early Release into AFWA Processing Environment MM5 Integrated with Other AFWA Models Land Surface Model (near-global land-surface analysis model) Real-Time Cloud Analysis (RTNEPH/CDFS-II; global cloud analysis models; forecaster enhanced) Advect Cloud (ADVCLD), High-Res Cloud Prog (HRCP), & C-MNS fine resolution cloud forecasts (forecaster enhanced global cloud trajectory forecast models) Snow Analysis (global snow & ice areas; forecaster enhanced) Surface Temperature (global temperature analysis model)

  23. Historical NWP Environment: MM5 2002 Improved Objective and Subjective Verification of MM5 Redesigned JAAWIN Operational Implementation of MM5-V3-R5.2 (improved boundary layer physics)

  24. Historical NWP Environment: MM5 • MM5 3DVAR Operational Implementation (state-of-the-art data assimilation system at front end of MM5; replaced MVOI) 2002 Added 2 and 10 meter output of T, RH, u- and v- winds Reduced model biases of forecasts T, Td, wind speed, wind direction, ceiling and visibility MM5-V3-R5.3 Operational Implementation (added options for “unified-LSM” and improved polar physics)

  25. Historical NWP Environment: MM5 2003 Linked to Defense Research and Engineering Network (DREN)—High bandwidth to use HPC centers Established Classified Modeling Capability (Operational in 2004) Established Visiting Scientist Position (assimilation) at JCSDA Completed Common High-performance S/W Support Initiative ($1.5M over 3 yrs—WRF and WRF 3DVAR development)

  26. Historical NWP Environment: MM5 2003 Collaborated with FNMOC to Establish Fine-Resolution MM5 and COAMPS Windows for SWA Operations

  27. Current NWP Environment: MM5 2003

  28. Next NWP Environment: WRF 2004 Halted MM5 Technology Enhancement Efforts for WRF WRF is a Community Model Built in the Same Spirit as MM5, but is Designed for Greater Expansion (numerics, physics, and initialization) WRF is Designed for Cloud Scale Phenomena (1-10 km horiz. res. grids) that are not Explicitly Calculated and are not Currently Forecasted Well WRF Addresses Key Warfighter and National Security Effectiveness Issues Caused by Weather Signed WRF National Concept of Operations Framework with NCEP and FNMOC

  29. Next NWP Environment: WRF 2004 Running WRF V1.2 /1.3 Retrospective Tests at NAVO MSRC and AFWA (executing community WRF Tests) Several thousand runs; 7 regions; 8 physics configs >1000 test runs; SW Asia at 15km; 18 physics configs Performance results being tabulated; subjective review positive DoD HPCMO funded $3M Navy/AF Distributed Center (fields two platforms to conduct WRF operational tests) Test multiple system configurations Determine configurations that best meet DoD and service unique mesoscale NWP requirements Test operationally capable mesoscale ensemble runs Prototype and test Grid Computing concepts

  30. Next NWP Environment: WRF 2004

  31. WRF Visualizations--Isabel 18 Sep 03/1500Z AFWA WRF 15km Model Run 20030918 00Z Valid 18/1500Z

  32. Next NWP Environment: WRF • 2005 • WRF IOC: 1 April • Advanced Data Assimilation System Goals • Add direct radiance data assimilation to WRF-3DVAR • Exploit emerging satellite data (MODIS, NPP, NPOESS, etc.) • Improve utilization of existing data; incorporate non-conventional data; WRF-4DVAR

  33. Summary The Air Force has a solid position in NWP history and is well poised for the future. Since the inception of operational use, the Air Force has put and continues to put its emphasis on providing highest quality tailored weather products and decision aids for warfighting operations.

  34. Questions?

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