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Trends in Political Systems. What are recent changes, and where are they taking us?. Democracy. How to define “Democracy?”. Since the 1980s we have seen a steady global spread of democracy worldwide.
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Trends in Political Systems What are recent changes, and where are they taking us?
Democracy How to define “Democracy?” • Since the 1980s we have seen a steady global spread of democracy worldwide. • This has been from the right and the left: Military regimes in Africa and South America; Communist governments in Europe. China?
China and Russia • In Russia an opening of the Political System starting with Glasnost. But economy remains primitive. • In China economic reforms, but only slow political change. Which is better? • North Korea and Cuba.
Capitalism and Market Economy. • The last 60 years have seen the growth of capitalism and market economy • Similarly, growth in government spending and private indebtedness. • Came crashing down in 2007. • Can the welfare state survive?
China and Russia • Can China spread its wealth to the countryside? Can it develop Democratic institutions? • Can Russia modernize its economy and get away from dependence on exporting raw materials?
Future of Welfare State • Debt has forced governments to cut spending and raise taxes, especially following the Greek crisis. • Can countries afford the welfare state model. • Can America afford to move into it?
Rich and Poor Countries • Rise of Asia under both Communism (China) and Capitalism (India). • Trade recession cuts income of poor countries. People able to buy less, which is bad news for exporting countries. • Is Consumerism constrained?
Europe? • Will the debt crisis stress the disunity of Europe and move it backwards? • Will Europe split over the Euro? • Is more political control the answer? • Will it move toward statehood?
The USA • Will it become more or less unilateral? • Will it turn back to reducing the size and the role of government? Tea Party. • Will it withdraw from its global involvement?
Bulgaria • Will it become more involved in the European Economy? • Will it become a bridge to Central Asia? • Will it become a regional force in the Balkans? Stability.
NATO NATO now engaged in peace-keeping in many countries, but what is its political mission? Is this the job of the UN? • Will it remain Europe’s military arm? • What is its political role? • Does America want it? Does Europe? • New plan for NATO due this November (2010)