Why we need to build the European integration strategy?

1. Working Group 2: Integrated systems of MetM and CTM/ADM: strategy, interfaces and module unification The overall aim of WG2 will be to identify the requirements for the unification of MetM and CTM/ADM modules and to propose recommendations for a European strategy for integrated mesoscale modelling capability. WG2 activities will include: • Forecasting models • Assessment models

2. Why we need to build the European integration strategy? NWP models are not primarily developed for CTM/ADMs and there is no tradition for strong co-operation between the groups for meso/local-scale the conventional concepts of meso- and urban-scale AQ forecasting need revision along the lines of integration of MetM and CTM US example (The models 3, WRF-Chem) A number of European models … A universal modelling system (like ECMWF in EU or WRF-Chem in US) ??? an open integrated system with fixed architecture (module interface structure) European mesoscale MetM/NWP communities: • ECMWF • HIRLAM • COSMO • ALADIN/AROME • UM --------- • WRF • MM5 • RAMS European CTM/ADMs: • a big number • problem oriented • not harmonised (??) • …..

3. Meteorology and Air Pollution:as a joint problem Meteorology is a main source of uncertainty in APMs => needs for meso-scale MetM / NWP model improvements Complex & combined effects of meteo- and pollution components (e.g., Paris, Summer 2003) Effects of pollutants/aerosols on meteo&climate (precipitation, thunderstorms, etc) Three main stones for Atmospheric Environment modelling: Meteorology / ABL, Chemistry, =>Integrated Approach Aerosol/pollutant dynamics(“chemical weather forecasting”) Effects and Feedbacks

4. WG2 activities: • Overview of existing integrated (off-line and on-line) systems in Europe and outside Europe. • Identification of the advantages and disadvantages of strategies for integrating of MetMs and CTM/ADMs. • Development ofguidance and strategy for on-line coupling of MetMs and CTM/ADMs and for their off-line interfacing. • Overview of existing module structures of MetMs and CTM/ADMs, along with recommendations and requirements for module unification. • Formulation of requirements of mesoscale MetMs suitable as input to air pollution models and improved meteorological pre-processors and model interfaces, including deposition processes, capable of connecting mesoscale MetM results to CTM/ADMs. • Recommended methods for the model down-scaling and nesting, as well as assimilation techniques. • Identifying requirements (including observation data needs) for an integrated mesoscale modelling capability/strategy for Europe.

5. WG2 Deliverables: • Overview of existing integrated (off-line and on-line) mesoscale systems. • Overview of existing module structures of MetMs and CTM/ADMs, recommendations and requirements for module unification. • Requirements of meso-scale MetMs suitable as input to CTM/ADMs, assessment of meteorological pre-processors and model interfaces between MetMs and CTM/ADMs. • Recommended methods for the model down-scaling and nesting, as well as assimilation techniques. • Requirements for an integrated mesoscale modelling capability/strategy for Europe, including data needs.

6. COSMOS: Community Earth System Models Differences from COST 728: • Climate time-scale processes, • General (global and regional) atmospheric circulation models, • Atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere integration

7. The European PRISM project The PRISM project develops: • infrastructure for Earth System Modelling including  • the coupler OASIS, as well as • tools for configuration, monitoring and postprocessing. PRISM also provides guidelines for good coding practices. Detailed information can be found in the PRISM System Specifications Handbook. [PRISM website: http://prism.enes.org/]

8. Integrated Urban Air Quality Modelling Modellering i byområder er aktuel til de fleste formål, og det er vigtigt at inddrage effekter heraf i NWP og forureningsmodellerne. Ligeledes er aerosoldannelse og -dynamik et fokusområde med betydning for helbred og sigtbarhed samt effekter på meteorologi og klima.

9. Urban BL features • Local-scale inhomogeneties, sharp changes of roughness and heat fluxes, • Wind velocity reduce effect due to buildings, • Redistribution of eddies due to buildings, large => small, • Trapping of radiation in street canyons, • Effect of urban soil structure, diffusivities heat and water vapour, • Anthropogenic heat fluxes, urban heat island, • Internal urban boundary layers (IBL), urban Mixing Height, • Effects of pollutants (aerosols) on urban meteorology and climate, • Urban effects on clouds, precipitation and thunderstorms.

10. Shortcomings of existing NWP: • Despite the increased resolution of existing operational NWP models, urban and non-urban areas mostly contain similar sub-surface, surface, and boundary layer formulation. • These do not account for specifically urban dynamics and energetics and their impact on the numerical simulation of the ABL and its various characteristics (e.g. internal boundary layers, urban heat island, precipitation patterns). Urban Scale NWP modeling needs: • Higher grid resolution / downscaling / nesting • Improved Physiographic data / Land use / RS data • Calculation of urban effective roughness • Calculation of urban heat fluxes • Urban canopy model • Mixing height in urban areas • Urban measurement assimilation in NWP models

11. FUMAPEX: Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population ExposureProject objectives: • the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, • the connection of NWP models to urban air quality (UAQ) and population exposure (PE) models, • the building of improved Urban Air Quality Information and Forecasting Systems (UAQIFS), and • their application in cities in various European climates.

12. Resolution: Models, e.g.:  15 km ECMWF/HIRLAM,GME ~1-5 km LM, HIRLAM, > 0.5 km MM5, RAMS, LM ~ 1-10 m CFD, LES, box models Current regulatory (dash line) and realised in FUMAPEX (solid line) ways for systems of forecasting of urban meteorology for UAQUIFS:s.

13. Scheme of the suggested improvements of meteorological forecasts (NWP) in urban areas and interfaces to urban air pollution (UAP) and population exposure (PE) models

14. Integrated Fumapex urban module for NWP models including 4 levels of complexity of the NWP 'urbanization'

15. New Urban Meteo-Preprocessor • High-resolution urban-scale NWP data • Calculation of effective roughnesses (for momentum and scalars) and displacement height • Parameterization of wind and eddy profiles in urban canopy layer • Calculation of anthropogenic and storage urban heat fluxes • Prognostic parameterizations for Mixing Height • Improved sigma parameterization for SBL

16. Structure of the Danish nuclear emergency modelling system DMI-HIRLAM system • T version: 0.15° • S version: 0.05° • L version: 0.014° DERMA model • 3-D trajectory model • Long-range dispersion • Deposition of radionuclides • Radioactive decay ARGOS system • Radiological monitoring • Source term estimation • Local-Scale Model Chain • Health effects ECMWF global model

17. Integrated (on-line coupled) modeling system structure for predicting climate change and atmospheric composition

18. WRF-Chem: Online versus offline averaged concentration over half of the domain, At 21Z Ó Georg Grell

19. Schematic Illustration of the Chemistry-Aerosol-Cloud (CAC) System being developed at DMI

20. Aerosol Dynamics Modelling The following aerosol physical processes are solved 1. Nuclei mode (i): • nucleation, N(i), • condensation growth, G(i), • intramodal coagulation, C(i->i), • intermodal transfer of moment from nuclei mode, C(i->j), d M(i)/dt = N(i) + G(i) + C(i->i) 2. Accumulation mode (j): • condensation growth, G(j), • intramodal coagulation C(j->j) • intermodal transfer of moment to accumulation mode, C(i->j), • primary emission, E(k,j) d M(k,j)/dt = G(j) - C(j->j) + C(i->j) + E(j) 3. Mechanical generation mode (k): emission, condensation growth and coagulation Realisation: 1. Sectional numerical approach, 2. Analytical solutions using the modal approach.

21. DMS effects on marine aerosols Gross and Baklanov (2004) Solid lines: particle number concentrations Dashed lines: mass concentrations

22. Data Assimilation • Experience from NWP data assimilation • Specifics of the data assimilation for CTM/ADMs • Remote Sensing /Satellite data assimilation • Overview of existing and newest methods for data assimilation • Strategy and recommendations for further studies

23. Meteorological Capability for Source-Receptor problem & Risk Assessments • Long-term / probabilistic / ensemble simulations for risk/impact assessments • Source-term /position estimation /inverse modelling • Sensitivity /vulnerability /risk functions • Inverse problems /source-receptor problem • Adjoint equations • Illumination / smoothing of measurement function

24. METHODOLOGY FOR PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS

25. Backward and Adjoint Simulations • Sensitivity of Receptors or Source-term estimation. • Trajectory modelling to calculate backward/forward individual or multiyear trajectory data sets for sensitivity studies. • Cluster and Probability fields analysis of trajectory/ dispersion data sets by month, season, and year (Mahura and Baklanov, 2002). • Adjoint problem methodology- based on variational principles, combination of direct and inverse modeling, and sensitivity theory - for atmospheric pollution problemto calculate unknown source term based on monitoring data for local- and global scales (Baklanov, 2000;Penenko and Baklanov, 2001).

26. Determination of source location by inverse (adjoint) model calculation using DERMA based on measured data(Sørensen and Baklanov, 2004) Bio-terror: Hypothetical release of 100 g Anthrax spores Inhalation dose calculated by DERMA Sensitivity function based on inverse modelling by DERMA Measurements:

27. WG2 plan for first 6 months • Status report from WG2 members: models, systems, approaches • WG2 expertise and potential contributions • WP2 strategy and working plan • First draft overview of the current status • Links to other WGs