Policy Case Studies from Europe

1. Policy Case Studies from Europe Martin Williams, DEFRAMatti Vainio, European Commission, DG Environment

2. Outline • EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution • Interplay with energy/climate change policies • Revision of air quality directives • Average urban background exposure • New emission ceilings to Member STates for 2020 • Interplay with climate change/energy projections • UK Air Quality Strategy

3. Thematic Strategy is a response to 6th EAP • 6th EAP- Decision of Council & EP of July 2002: • ‘achieving levels of air quality that do not give rise to significant negative impacts on and risks to human health and the environment’; (Art 7.1. of 6th EAP) • Integrated approach; consistency with other environmental policies; exploit synergies; • Better Regulation • supported by thorough impact assessment; • new legislative proposal to streamline air quality legislation

4. Objective of Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) Programme • Established in 2001 to provide the technical input for the Thematic Strategy on air pollution • Best available science & transparency • Benchmark current and future air pollution with regard to significant impacts • Define interim objectives up to 2020 – based on analysis of closing the gap between business as usual and Maximum Technical Feasible improvement • Inform the review of air quality legislation • Starting point in 2000 • ≈ 350,000 premature deaths attributable to PM • Average statistical life expectancy shortened by roughly 9 months, in some MSs: 1 to 2 years.

5. How were these interim objectives defined? • Peer-reviewed health (WHO) and scientific advice • Assessment of the effect of current policies • Peer-reviewed integrated assessment to develop cost-effective solutions for both health and environment • Peer-reviewed Cost-Benefit Analysis • Macro-economic analysis • Lisbon Strategy & Competitiveness • Stakeholder involvement and consultation • Over 100 stakeholder meetings and over 10.000 responses to internet based consultation • Accompanied by comprehensive impact assessment (170+ pages)

6. Impacts addressed by the Strategy (1) • Health: Fine Particles (PM2.5) & Ozone • Range of problems from minor respiratory effects to premature death; also cardiovascular effects. • No known thresholds for effects • Acid rain (SO2, NOx, NH3) • Affects freshwaters and terrestrial ecosystems • leads to loss of flora & fauna; reduced growth of forests, leaching of toxic metals into soil solution

7. Impacts addressed by the Strategy (2) • Eutrophication (NOx, NH3) • Excess nutrient nitrogen causes species composition change & loss of biodiversity • Also causes nutrient imbalances in plants/trees -increases susceptibility to other stresses such as drought • Ozone (non-health) • Damages trees and plants including agricultural crops • Damages buildings/materials

8. PM SO2 NH3 NOx VOC Interim objectives for 2020 Defining cost-effective solutions is complicated Health Eutrophication Acidification Ozone

9. Example 1: Fine particlesEven if situation improves by 2020:2.5 million life years or 272,000 premature deathsif nothing is done. Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5Calculations for 1997 meteorology Source: Clean Air for Europe Programme (2005)

10. Example 2:Problem of too much nitrogen deposited to nature in 2020No EU policies have yet addressed this. Ecosystem area exceeded eutrophication 590 000 km2 Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads using grid-average deposition. Calculation for 1997 meteorology Source: Clean Air for Europe Programme (2005)

11. Summary of “Business as Usual” • Emissions continue to decline • But in 2020 • Premature deaths related to fine particulates still 270,000 • Loss of statistical average life still 5 months in the EU • Ozone premature mortality equal to 20,800 cases • 119,000 km2 of forest at risk from acid rain • 590,000 km2 of ecosystems at risk from nutrient Nitrogen • 760,000 km2 of forest at risk from ozone • Cost-effective improvements are possible Ships will represent 125% and 101% of land based SO2 and NOx emissions in 2020.

12. The Strategy

13. 200 € Billion / year 150 100 50 0 Case "A" Strategy Case "B" Case "C" Max. technical reductions Road sources costs SOX costs NOX costs NH3 costs VOC costs PM25 costs Health Benefits Uncertainty Costs and benefits of the CAFE policy scenarios Strategy costs €7.1 billion per annum in 2020andthereafter

14. Improvement of health & environment indicators following the Strategy (improvement relative to 2000)

15. Summary of Strategy – Costs & Benefits

16. Objectives of the Strategy

17. Link to energy and climate change policies: Reduction in CO2 reduces also air pollution in 2020 Are these ancillary benefits important? -6% -13% -23% Sources: NTUA, IIASA, AEAT (2006)

18. Measures following the Strategy • Euro 5 for cars and vans • Euro 6 for Heavy Duty Engines • Revision of the NECD consistent with objectives identified in the Strategy • Small scale combustion • Review of IPPC directive for larger sources • Energy using Products directive for small sources • Ship NOx engine standards (IMO or Community) • Agriculture (NH3) • N content of feedstuffs • Review of IPPC directive for intensive agriculture • Revise Air quality legislation

19. Air Quality Legislation COM (2005) 447 final • Better Regulation • Merge AQ Framework Directive, EoI Decision, and 1st- 3rd Daughter directives • More flexibility for Member States • Natural Sources of pollution can be discounted • Time extensions (< 5 years) where all reasonable measures taken and new plan prepared to ensure compliance • New provisions on PM2.5 • Concentration cap of 25µg/m3 annual average to apply everywhere Robust monitoring of PM2.5 concentrations • Target to reduce national average measured urban background concentration by 20% between 2010 and 2020 subject to later review where differentiated MS legal objectives to be proposed

20. State of Play on AQ Directive Proposal • European Parliament (1st reading vote – Sept 2006) • PM2.5 concentration cap stricter at 20µg/m3 but delayed until 2015. • Differentiated exposure reduction for urban PM2.5 • <10µg/m3 average (AEI) then 0% national reduction • 10-15µg/m3 average then variable 10% national reduction • 15-20µg/m3 average then 15% national reduction • 20-25µg/m3 average then 20% national reduction • >25µg/m3 average then all appropriate measures to reach AEI = 20µg/m3 • Council (General approach agreed at June Council) • PM2.5 concentration cap 25µg/m3 but delayed until 2015. • Differentiated exposure reduction for urban PM2.5 by 2020 • = <7µg/m3 average then 0% national reduction • >7-13µg/m3 average then variable (AEI x 1.5)% national reduction • >13µg/m3 average then 20% national reduction

21. Revision of NEC Directive

22. Link of National Emission Ceilings with other legislation • Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution • Air quality objectives (including air quality limit values) • Objectives for nature National Emission Ceilings • Stationary Sources • IPPC • - LPC Mobile Sources - Euro 5 and 6 - Euro VI Other Legislation

23. Links between climate, air pollution and energy policies: If emissions of CO2 reduce by 1%, SO2 is projected to reduce by 1,5% and Nox and PM2.5 by 0.5%. Source: M. Amann (IIASA) Provisional GAINS estimates, EU-25, 2020 Note: Updated baseline includes more coal and thus large ancillary benefits.

24. Cost savings from an integrated approach: Through greenhouse gas policies the cost of air pollution reduction is reduced by several billion euros Ambition level of Thematic Strategy Integrated approach: Joint optimization of GHG and air pollution control Baseline Source: M. Amann (IIASA): Provisional GAINS estimates, EU-25, 2020

25. Conclusions • Air pollution is and will continue to be a real problem for health and environment • Need to act at EU level -- air pollution is transboundary • Ambitious but cost-effective proposals • Based on sound peer-reviewed science and comprehensive Impact Assessment • Better Regulation • Streamlining legislation: 50% reduction in paper provisions • New approach to environmental policy • Reducing average background concentration of fine particulates • Ancillary benefits of CO2 reduction are important • 10% reduction in CO2 emissions would imply health benefits 9-28 billion euros per annum in 2020 • National Emission Ceilings Directive will address specifically the interlinkages with Energy and Climate change policies • More sustainable and robust conclusions

26. A Case Study in one EU Member State – the UK The National Air Quality Strategy Review has recently been published for consultation

27. Launched on 5th April 2006 Closing date: 11th July 2006

28. Why? • In 2005, man-made particulate air pollution in UK was estimated to reduce average life expectancy by 8 months; • This health impact in the UK is valued at a cost of up to £9.1-£21.4 billions per annum;

29. In 2003, 55% of natural habitats in the UK exceeded levels of harmful acidity; • In 2003, 60% of natural habitats in the UK exceeded level of harmful nutrient deposition

30. In spite of good trends, we are not meeting our objectives (NO2, PM10) in few areas across the country and do not expect to meet them in 2020 without further actions;

31. At certain locations, long term reducing trends for NO2, PM10 are flattening out or even reversing.

32. Impacts of new policy measures assessed against 4 criteria: • Monetary Costs & Benefits Analysis; • Exceedences assessment; • Ecosystems assessment; • Qualitative assessment.

33. New policy measures: • Transport • Industrial/Domestic • Shipping • Combined measures • New objectives: • PM2.5 Exposure-Reduction • Ecosystems

34. Transport Ind/Dom Sh Comb Measures: Costs & Benefits

35. Transport Ind/Dom Sh Comb Measures: exceedences assessment

36. Transport Ind/Dom Ship Combined Measures: ecosystems assessment

37. Measures: qualitative assessment • Noise: small positive impacts for certain transport measures; • Deprived areas: small positive benefits from certain measures; • Competition: more assessment needed for certain measures; • Small businesses: more assessment needed for certain measures.

38. Measures: evidence from CCP and AQS reviews • Government and DAs always seek joint optimisation of Air Quality (AQ) and Climate Change (CC) policies; • Measures in CCP review have some small positive impacts on air quality; • Measures in AQS review have some small positive and negative impacts on CO2; • In the short-term, joint optimisation will require some small trade off (Euro V&VI); • In the long-term, AQ and CC policies will continue to work synergistically.

39. Measures: results • Government and DAs are considering implementing or arguing for in relevant international fora the following measures: • New Euro standards for vehicles; • Incentives for early uptake of Euro standards; • Incentives for early update of Low Emission vehicles; • National road pricing scheme; • Reducing emissions from small combustion plants; • Reducing emissions from ships;

40. Objectives: new proposals Human health: • New PM2.5 Exposure-Reduction Approach to replace PM10 2010 objectives for 2010; Ecosystems: • For SSSIs + other protected sites, NOx (99%) and SO2 (100% at 10ug.m-3); • New O3 objectives (from DD3).

41. Exposure-Reduction Approach: what is it?

42. Exposure-Reduction Approach: what is it? • Only for pollutants for which there is no safe level (i.e. particles); • Formed by two inseparable components: • “Backstop” or “concentration cap” objective (environmental justice) • % reduction objectives over period of time in urban background areas (main driver for public health improvements) • For PM2.5 rather than PM10 in order to follow latest WHO and COMEAP health expert advice.