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Forecasting & Competitive Intelligence

Forecasting & Competitive Intelligence. v2. Strategy & Business Planning Forecasting & Competitive Intelligence – Version 1. G - Governance O - Oversight S - Support P - Perform. Forecasting & Competitive Intelligence (G,O,S,P). Competitive Intelligence & Research ( G, O, P, S).

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Forecasting & Competitive Intelligence

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  1. Forecasting & Competitive Intelligence v2

  2. Strategy & Business PlanningForecasting & Competitive Intelligence – Version 1 G - Governance O - Oversight S - Support P - Perform Forecasting & Competitive Intelligence (G,O,S,P) Competitive Intelligence & Research (G, O, P, S) Project Mgt (G, O, P, S) Load & Revenue Forecasting (G, O, P, S) Economic Forecasting (G, O, P, S) Commodity Forecasting (G, O, P, S) • Develop short term TVA system peak and energy forecast • Develop long term TVA system peak and energy forecast • Provide delivery point forecast, long term peak demand forecasts for each of about 1200 TVA delivery points • Develop near term hourly load forecast, 35 day hourly TVA system load forecast adjusted for weekly temperature forecasts • Provide detail revenue forecast needed to support rate and financial analysis areas • Provide analytical support including interruptible load forecasts, retail rate estimates for individual distributors and forecasts to support RUS requests • Develop and provide short term and long term fuel and emission allowance price forecasts with stochastic bands • Provide electricity price forecasts including 72 scenarios for uncertainty • Benchmark and monitor commodity forecasts against others in industry • Provide uncertainty ranges and various confidence ranges for use in scenario planning, risk analysis, project evaluations, capacity, generation and financial evaluations • Monitor and incorporate market data to trend to long term fundamental forecast • Support the monthly genplan and FCA process • Provide TVA’s Economic Outlook • Provide monthly economic update • Provide inflation and escalation rate forecasts • Manage key vendor contracts such as Altos, CERA, etc. • Coordinate delivery point forecast IT initiative • Coordinates the move from commissioning Altos to provide forecasts to internally running models and developing forecasts • Coordinate setting up infrastructure for maintaining competitive intelligence info • F&CI Infrastructure Improvements (commodity model upgrades , data repository improvements, etc. • Process and procedures, indicators, etc. • Budget Development and Tracking and general staff support • Produce an annual competitive outlook including competitor profiles, generation & capacity comparisons, clean air plans,rate comparisons, etc. • Provide updated comparisons of TVA against other utilities for key variables • Provide strategic view of marketplace and trends • Research estimates of future costs of renewable, clean air and other emerging technologies • Provide other economic research as needed such as LT look at Regional Economy, etc. • Provide competitive analysis as requested by executives

  3. Strategy & Business PlanningForecasting & Competitive Intelligence Version 1 Beth Creel GM, Forecasting & Competitive Intelligence +1 (admin) Bob Millard, Sr. Mgr, Load & Revenue Forecasting Mike Walker Project Mgt Tammy Bramlett Janet Jentilet Sr. Mgr, Competitive Intelligence & Research Juan Gonzelez Sr specialist Economic forecasting Scott Spence Janet Jentilet Sr. Mgr, Commodity Forecasting +0 +5 –- load (existing) +1 –- revenue +5 (existing) +0 +3 Total anticipated headcount -21 Blue indicates new function or new area for individual Green indicates person is fixed or only recommendation

  4. Strategy & Business PlanningForecasting & Competitive Intelligence – Version 1 Beth Creel GM, Forecasting & Competitive Intelligence +1 (admin) Bob Millard, Sr. Mgr, Load & Revenue Forecasting Mike Walker Project Mgt Tammy Bramlett Janet Jentilet Sr. Mgr, Competitive Intelligence & Research Juan Gonzelez Sr. specialist Economic forecasting Scott Spence Janet Jentilet Sr. Mgr, Commodity Forecasting +0 +5 –- load (existing) +1 –- revenue +5 (existing) +0 +3 & contractor • Proposed: • TPD • Lorna Greening • Claudia Garren • Vickie Ellis – Contractor (recommended by Kim • Jessica Anthony • Wesley Nimon • John Snyder • Carla Baker • Andy Groth ( LT S/L) • Proposed: • Danielle Akins (currently in Risk & economic analysis) • Or • New hire • Or • Other analyst currently in Risk & Economic analysis • Ron Morris • Lori Stenger • Jamie Bach • Scott Jones (or replacemetn) • Dennis Conn Total anticipated headcount -21 + 1 contractor Blue indicates new function or new area for individual Green indicates person is fixed or only recommendation

  5. Strategy & Business PlanningForecasting & Competitive Intelligence – Version 2 G - Governance O - Oversight S - Support P - Perform Forecasting & Competitive Intelligence (G,O,S,P) Competitive Intelligence (G, O, P, S) Project Mgt (G, O, P, S) Load & Revenue Forecasting (G, O, P, S) Economic Forecasting & Research (G, O, P, S) Commodity Forecasting (G, O, P, S) • Develop short term TVA system peak and energy forecast • Develop long term TVA system peak and energy forecast • Provide delivery point forecast, long term peak demand forecasts for each of about 1200 TVA delivery points • Develop near term hourly load forecast, 35 day hourly TVA system load forecast adjusted for weekly temperature forecasts • Provide detail revenue forecast needed to support rate and financial analysis areas • Provide analytical support including interruptible load forecasts, retail rate estimates for individual distributors and forecasts to support RUS requests • Develop and provide short term and long term fuel and emission allowance price forecasts with stochastic bands • Provide electricity price forecasts including 72 scenarios for uncertainty • Benchmark and monitor commodity forecasts against others in industry • Provide uncertainty ranges and various confidence ranges for use in scenario planning, risk analysis, project evaluations, capacity, generation and financial evaluations • Monitor and incorporate market data to trend to long term fundamental forecast • Support the monthly genplan and FCA process • Provide TVA’s Economic Outlook • Provide monthly economic update • Provide inflation and escalation rate forecasts • Research estimates of future costs of renewable, clean air and other emerging technologies • Provide other economic research as needed such as LT look at Regional Economy, etc. • Manage key vendor contracts such as Altos, CERA, etc. • Coordinate delivery point forecast IT initiative • Coordinates the move from commissioning Altos to provide forecasts to internally running models and developing forecasts • Coordinate setting up infrastructure for maintaining competitive intelligence info • F&CI Infrastructure Improvements (commodity model upgrades , data repository improvements, etc. • Process and procedures, indicators, etc. • Budget Development and Tracking and general staff support • Produce an annual competitive outlook including competitor profiles, generation & capacity comparisons, clean air plans,rate comparisons, etc. • Provide updated comparisons of TVA against other utilities for key variables • Provide strategic view of marketplace and trends • Provide competitive analysis as requested by executives

  6. Strategy & Business PlanningForecasting & Competitive Intelligence – Version 2 Beth Creel GM, Forecasting & Competitive Intelligence +1 (admin) Bob Millard, Sr. Mgr, Load & Revenue Forecasting Mike Walker Project Mgt Tammy Bramlett Janet Jentilet Sr. Mgr, Competitive Intelligence ? Mgr, Economic Forecasting & Research Scott Spence Janet Jentilet Sr. Mgr, Commodity Forecasting +0 +5 –- load (existing) +1 –- revenue +5 (existing) +2 +2 Total anticipated headcount -21 Blue indicates new function or new area for individual Green indicates person is fixed or only recommendation

  7. Strategy & Business PlanningForecasting & Competitive Intelligence – Version 2 Beth Creel GM, Forecasting & Competitive Intelligence +1 (admin) Bob Millard, Sr. Mgr, Load & Revenue Forecasting Mike Walker Project Mgt Tammy Bramlett Janet Jentilet Sr. Mgr, Competitive Intelligence ? Mgr, Economic Forecasting & Research Scott Spence Janet Jentilet Sr. Mgr, Commodity Forecasting +0 +5 –- load (existing) +1 –- revenue +5 (existing) +2 +2 & contractor • Proposed: • TBD • Claudia Garren • Vickie Ellis – Contractor (recommended by Kim • Jessica Anthony • Wesley Nimon • John Snyder • Carla Baker • Andy Groth ( LT S/L) • Proposed: • Danielle Akins (currently in Risk & economic analysis) • Or • New hire • Or • Other analyst currently in Risk & Economic analysis • Ron Morris • Lori Stenger • Jamie Bach • Scott Jones • Dennis Conn • Juan Gonzalez • Lorna Greening Total anticipated headcount -21 + 1 contractor Blue indicates new function or new area for individual Green indicates person is fixed or only recommendation

  8. Next Steps – 30-60 days • Learn background, requirements, issues of new areas • Talk to current and previous managers, employees and users • Determine expectations • Lay out scope to achieve expectations • Determine information input/output requirements for Competitive Intelligence unit • Obtain copies of previous and recent CI presentations/research • Research first priority CI needs of executives • Investigate and obtain or expand rights of Energy Velocity or other databases/sources to obtain competitive info • Set up revenue forecast process • Modify or develop revenue forecasting spreadsheet/model to account for TOU change. • Determine adhoc interim solution • Develop plan to modify or develop tool for long term solution • Finalize structure and staffing • Determine staffing requirements and training needs • Hire/Train needed personnel • Since Scott Jones is the only person in TVA that can produce the MEPF , it is imperative for him to train staff. • Post and hire any non-filled positions

  9. Hard Spots • Scott Jones is the only person in TVA that can produce the MEPF (Electricity Price Forecast). High probability Andrew will pull into SP. Desperately need to train other primary and back-up personnel. • Commodity forecasts are currently provided by Altos, but work is in progress to beginning producing inside TVA. If implemented, there needs another validation process so it’s defendable compared to other external produced forecasts. • Current revenue forecast model does not account for TOU • There is no backup for Juan Gonzalez • Andy Groth is out on perpetual long term sick leave due to grave illness. Need full time FTE to replace.

  10. OTHER NOTES: • According to Andrew, Janet, Bob, Cass and others, Lorna has significant serious people skill issues. She is a very bright and capable resource, but is hard to manage and is not recommended to manage others • Suggest keeping Competitive Intelligence as name, since Kim addresses it as such. “Market intelligence” seems associated more with Trawick’s org to support trading, etc. • Kim indicated to me to tell Vicki Ellis (contractor) that she should assume she is part of Competitive Intelligence (she did some CI analysis for TDK and Kim under Venita) • Cass indicates that he only plans to turn over revenue forecasting model, not any analysts. This massive spreadsheet needs total revamping since it doesn’t address TOU. • Claudia Garren used to be in the CI unit previously and doesn’t have a home at the moment.

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