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Understanding Risk Assessment: Predicting Future Behavior in Psychological Contexts

This document explores the critical elements of risk assessment in predicting individuals' future actions, especially in psychology-related scenarios. It covers factors such as measurability, context, imminence, and objective analysis. The importance of understanding subjective justification, alternative options, and potential consequences is emphasized to effectively evaluate aggressive behaviors. Additionally, the assessment of access to means of executing threats is discussed, with real-world examples provided. This comprehensive approach aims to enhance understanding and application of risk assessment across various settings.

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Understanding Risk Assessment: Predicting Future Behavior in Psychological Contexts

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Assessing Risk The clock is ticking…

  2. Risk Assessment • What is it? Elements of Prediction • Measurability • Vantage • Context • Imminence • Experience • Comparable Events • Objectivity • Investment • Replicability • Knowledge • PINs

  3. Why do it? • Makes a prediction of an individual’s future acts. Consistent with psychology’s role in a variety of settings.

  4. How do we do it? • JACA • Justification • Alternatives/ Options • Consequences • Good • Bad • Access

  5. Justification - 1st hurdle • Does the individual have subjective justification? Or have they justified a reason that they should do the aggressive act? • “I warned her what would happen and she did it anyway.”

  6. Alternatives • Do they have options other than acting out aggressively? • i.e. “I am calling my lawyer and will have your job” vs. “No one can help now!” • The second is a much more threatening response.

  7. Consequences • Does the individual identify any rewards or negative consequences to being aggressive or violent? • Examples of concerning responses would include “I can do jail time.” or “I might get caught but it would feel good!”

  8. Access • Does the individual have access to carrying out the threat? • We typically assume access is present. Just because we don’t think they will actually build a nuclear bomb, they might Google search and find they have everything for a pipe bomb.

  9. Case Summary

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