Mercers’ School Memorial Professor of Commerce Michael Mainelli
Mercers’ School Memorial Professor of Commerce Michael Mainelli. Perfectly Unpredictable Why Forecasting Produces Useful Rubbish. Outline. Fracticality Forecasting exercise Forecasting hurricanes Fair distribution Forecasting forecasting.
Mercers’ School Memorial Professor of Commerce Michael Mainelli
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Presentation Transcript
Mercers’ School Memorial Professor of CommerceMichael Mainelli Perfectly Unpredictable Why Forecasting Produces Useful Rubbish
Outline • Fracticality • Forecasting exercise • Forecasting hurricanes • Fair distribution • Forecasting forecasting “Get a detailed grip on the big picture.”Chao Kli Ning
Not To Scale 1946 OS map London SE sheet 171, 1 inch = 1 mile, 1:63,360 (yes I know, samples of scale, not their scale on this slide!) 1:625,000
Ulstermate Accuracy [Jodocus Hondius, 1563-1612] [Andrew Dury, London, 1764]
Unusual Success 7/7 5/7 5/7
Scientific Method [http://www3.shastacollege.edu/dscollon/images/scientific_method.JPG]
FairDistributions Poisson Normal Power Law Erlang
Forecasting Forecasting • Probabilistic forecasting • Dynamic anomaly & pattern response • Predictive markets • Qualitative versus quantitative • “The model is the message”
Discussion • Does the qualitative versus qualitative forecasting distinction hold true? • Will increasing indirect impacts through information technology make self-fulfilling prophecies more likely? John William Waterhouse The Crystal Ball (1902, oil on canvas)
Perfectly Undpredictable:Why Forecasting Produces Useful Rubbish Thank you! “Get a big picture grip on the details.”Chao Kli Ning
