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Chapter 13 Inflation and Its Impact on Project Cash Flows

Chapter 13 Inflation and Its Impact on Project Cash Flows. Meaning and Measure of Inflation Equivalence Calculations under Inflation Effects of Inflation on Project Cash Flows Rate of Return Analysis under Inflation. Inflation and Economic Analysis. What is inflation ?

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Chapter 13 Inflation and Its Impact on Project Cash Flows

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  1. Chapter 13Inflation and Its Impact on Project Cash Flows • Meaning and Measure of Inflation • Equivalence Calculations under Inflation • Effects of Inflation on Project Cash Flows • Rate of Return Analysis under Inflation (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  2. Inflation and Economic Analysis • What is inflation? • How do we measure inflation? • How do we incorporate the effect of inflation • in economic analysis? (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  3. What is Inflation? • Value of Money • Earning Power • Purchasing Power Earning Power Purchasing power Investment Opportunity Decrease in purchasing power (inflation) Increase in purchasing Power (deflation) (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  4. $100 $100 1990 2001 1990 Purchasing Power You could buy 50 Big Macs in year 1990. You can only buy 40 Big Macs in year 2001. 25% $2.00 / unit $2.50 / unit Price change due to inflation The $100 in year 2001 has only $80 worth purchasing power of 1990 (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  5. $100 $100 -2 -1 0 1 -2 -1 0 1 You can now purchase 80 gallons of unleaded gas. You could purchase 63.69 gallons of unleaded gasoline a year ago. 20.38% $1.57 / gallon $1.25 / gallon Price change due to deflation (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  6. Price Increase Due to Inflation (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  7. Inflation Terminology - I • Producer Price Index: a statistical measure of industrial price change, compiled monthly by the BLS, U.S. Department of Labor • Consumer Price Index: a statistical measure of change, over time, of the prices of goods and services in major expenditure groups—such as food, housing, apparel, transportation, and medical care—typically purchased by urban consumers • Average Inflation Rate (f): a single rate that accounts for the effect of varying yearly inflation rates over a period of several years. • General Inflation Rate ( ): the average inflation rate calculated based on the CPI for all items in the market basket. (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  8. Measuring Inflation Consumer Price Index (CPI): the CPI compares the cost of a sample “market basket” of goods and services in a specific period relative to the cost of the same “market basket” in an earlier reference period. This reference period is designated as the base period. Market basket Base Period (1967) 2001 $100 $512.9 CPI for 2001 = 512.9 (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  9. Selected Price Indexes (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  10. $112.32 0 1 2 $100 Average Inflation Rate (f) Fact: Base Price = $100 (year 0) Inflation rate (year 1) = 4% Inflation rate (year 2) = 8% Average inflation rate over 2 years? Step 1: Find the actual inflated price at the end of year 2. $100 ( 1 + 0.04) ( 1 + 0.08) = $112.32 Step 2: Find the average inflation rate by solving the following equivalence equation. $100 ( 1+ f) = $112.32 f = 5.98% 2 (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  11. Average Inflation Rate (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  12. General Inflation Rate (f) Average inflation rate based on the CPI (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  13. Example 13.2: Yearly and Average Inflation Rates What are the annual inflation rates and the average inflation rate over 3 years? Solution Inflation rate during year 1 (f1): ($538,400 - $504,000) / $504,000 = 6.83%. Inflation rate during year 2 (f2): ($577,000 - $538,400) / $538,400 = 7.17 %. Inflation rate during year 3 (f3): ($629,500 - $577,000) / $577,000 = 9.10%. The average inflation rate over 3 years is (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  14. Inflation Terminology – II • Actual Dollars (An ): Estimates of future cash flows for year n that take into account any anticipated changes in amount caused by inflationary or deflationary effects. • Constant Dollars (An’ ): Estimates of future cash flows for year n in constant purchasing power, independent of the passage of time (or base period). (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  15. 3 $1,000 (1 + 0.08) = $1,260 Conversion from Constant to Actual Dollars $1,260 $1,000 3 3 Actual Dollars Constant Dollars (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  16. Conversion from Constant to Actual Dollars (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  17. $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 $120,000 $100,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 Years (a) Constant dollars $250,000 $130,000(1+0.05)4 $120,000(1+0.05)5 $100,000(1+0.05) $120,000(1+0.05)3 $110,000(1+0.05)2 $250,000(1+0.05)0 $158,016 $138,915 $121,275 $153,154 $105,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 Years (b) Actual dollars $250,000 (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  18. -3 $1,260 (1 + 0.08) = $1,000 Conversion from Actual to Constant Dollars $1,260 $1,000 3 3 Actual Dollars Constant Dollars (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  19. Conversion from Actual to Constant Dollars (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  20. Equivalence Calculation Under Inflation 1. Types of Interest Rate 2. Types of Cash Flow 3. Types of Analysis Method Market Interest rate (i) Inflation-free interest rate (i’) In Constant Dollars In Actual Dollars Constant Dollar Analysis Actual Dollar Analysis Deflation Method Adjusted-discount method (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  21. Inflation Terminology - III • Inflation-free Interest Rate (i’): an estimate of the true earning power of money when the inflation effects have been removed (also known as real interest rate). • Market interest rate (i): interest rate which takes into account the combined effects of the earning value of capital and any anticipated changes in purchasing power (also known as inflation-adjusted interest rate). (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  22. Inflation and Cash Flow Analysis • Constant Dollar analysis • -Estimate all future cash flows in constant dollars. • - Use i’ as an interest rate to find equivalent worth. • Actual Dollar Analysis • - Estimate all future cash flows in actual dollars. • - Use i as an interest rate to find equivalent worth. (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  23. Constant Dollar Analysis • In the absence of inflation, all economic analyses up to this point is, in fact, constant dollar analysis. • Constant dollar analysis is common in the evaluation of many long-term public projects, because government do no pay income taxes. • For private sector, income taxes are levied based on taxable income in actual dollars, actual dollar analysis is more common. (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  24. Actual Dollars Analysis • Method 1: Deflation Method • - Step 1: Bring all cash flows to have common purchasing power. • - Step 2: Consider the earning power. • Method 2: Adjusted-discount Method • - Combine Steps 1 and 2 into one step. (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  25.  Step 1: Convert actual dollars to Constant dollars (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  26. Step 2:Convert Constant dollars to Equivalent Present Worth (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  27. Deflation Method (Example 13.6):Converting actual dollars to constant dollars and then to equivalent present worth n = 0 n = 1 n = 2 n = 3 n = 4 n = 5 Actual Dollars -$75,000 $32,000 $35,700 $32,800 $29,000 $58,000 Constant Dollars -$75,000 $30,476 $32,381 $45,455 $28,334 $23,858 Present Worth $28,218 -$75,000 $16,295 $21,288 $26,761 $27,706 $45,268 (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  28. Adjusted-Discount Method Step 1 Step 2 (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  29. Adjusted-Discounted Method (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  30. Adjusted-discount method $58,000 $35,700 $32,000 $32,800 $29,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 = $35,700 (P/F, 15.5%, 2) = $32,000 (P/F, 15.5%, 1) = $32,800 (P/F, 15.5%, 3) - $75,000 $27,706 $26,761 $21,288 $16,295 $28,218 $45,268 = $29,000 (P/F, 15.5%, 4) = $58,000 (P/F, 15.5%, 5) (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  31. Adjusted Discount Method: Example 13.7Converting actual dollars to present worth dollars by applying the market interest rate n = 0 n = 1 n = 2 n = 3 n = 4 n = 5 Actual Dollars -$75,000 $32,000 $35,700 $32,800 $29,000 $58,000 Present Worth $28,218 -$75,000 $16,295 $21,288 $26,761 $27,706 $45,268 (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  32. Equivalence Calculation with Composite Cash Flow Elements Approach: Convert any cash flow elements in constant dollars into actual dollars. Then use the market interest rate to find the equivalent present value. (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  33. Required Quarterly Contributions to College Funds V1 = C(F/A, 2%, 48) V2 = $229,211 Let V1 = V2 and solve for C: C = $2,888.48 (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  34. Effects of Inflation on Project Cash Flows Note: Depreciation expenses are based on historical costs and always expressed in actual dollars (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  35. (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  36. (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  37. (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  38. (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  39. Excel Example of an after-tax cash flow analysis including differential inflation (Example 13.14) (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  40. $3,876 $3,000 (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  41. Rate of Return Analysis under Inflation • Principle:True (real) rate of return should be based on constant dollars. • If the rate of return is computed based on actual dollars, the real rate of return can be calculated as: IRR 31.34% 19.40% Not correct IRR (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  42. Summary • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a statistical measure of change, over time, of the prices of goods and services in major expenditure groups—such as food, housing, apparel, transportation, and medical care—typically purchased by urban consumers. • Inflation is the term used to describe a decline in purchasing power evidenced in an economic environment of rising prices. • Deflation is the opposite: An increase in purchasing power evidenced by falling prices. (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  43. The general inflation rate(f) is an average inflation rate based on the CPI. An annual general inflation rate ( ) can be calculated using the following equation: • Specific, individual commodities do not always reflect the general inflation rate in their price changes. We can calculate an average inflation rate for a specific commodity (j) if we have an index (that is, a record of historical costs) for that commodity. (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  44. Project cash flows may be stated in one of two forms Actual dollars (An):Dollars that reflect the inflation or deflation rate. Constant dollars (A’n):Year 0 dollars • Interest rates for project evaluation may be stated in one of two forms: Market interest rate (i):A rate which combines the effects of interest and inflation; used with actual dollar analysis Inflation-free interest rate (i’):A rate from which the effects of inflation have been removed; this rate is used with constant dollar analysis (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

  45. To calculate the present worth of actual dollars, we can use a two-step or a one-step process: Deflation method—two steps: 1. Convert actual dollars by deflating with the general inflation rate of 2. Calculate the PW of constant dollars by discounting at i’ Adjusted-discount method—one step 1. Compute the market interest rate. 2. Use the market interest rate directly to find the present value. (c) 2001 Contemporary Engineering Economics

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