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Predicting Solar Magnetic Field at Earth

Predicting Solar Magnetic Field at Earth. Dusan Odstrcil George Mason University & NASA/GSFC/Space Weather Laboratory. MURI/NADIR Workshop Boulder, CO October 27-28, 2010. Background Solar Wind by FR Coronal Maps. MAS and WSA coronal FR maps provide Br only

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Predicting Solar Magnetic Field at Earth

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  1. Predicting Solar Magnetic Field at Earth Dusan Odstrcil George Mason University & NASA/GSFC/Space Weather Laboratory MURI/NADIR Workshop Boulder, CO October 27-28, 2010

  2. Background Solar Wind by FR Coronal Maps • MAS and WSA coronal FR maps provide Br only • ENLIL introduces Bphi at the inner boundary • Initially Btheta = 0; weak Bz by stream interaction and seasonal effect

  3. Bz in Simulations with FR Maps

  4. Transient Disturbances Modeling of the origin of CMEs is still in the research phases and it is not expected that real events can be routinely simulated in near future. Therefore, we have developed an intermediate modeling system which uses the WSA coronal maps, fitted coronagraph observations, specifies 3D ejecta, and drives 3D numerical code ENLIL.

  5. IMF Draped by an ICME

  6. “External” Bz Periods – Shock Compression Shock to north, positive IMF: + Shock to north, negative IMF: - Shock to south, positive IMF: - Shock to south, negative IMF: +

  7. “External” Bz Periods – ICME Draping Above ICME center, positive IMF: - + Above ICME center, negative IMF: + - Below ICME center, positive IMF: + - Below ICME center, negative IMF: - +

  8. Bz in Simulations with FR Maps and Cone

  9. Bz in Simulations with FR Maps and Cone

  10. May 12, 1997 – Interplanetary CME ENLIL heliospheric model (GMU-NASA /GSFC)‏ MAS coronal model (PSI)‏ Self-consistent end-to-end numerical simulation of space weather event (NSF/CISM effort in progress)‏

  11. 2008 April 26 CME with Rope Model ( Thernisien et al., 2009 )‏ ( WSA-1.6-GONG-CR2069 )‏

  12. Launching Flux-Rope-Like Structure (2005-05-13)

  13. Flux-Rope-Like Structure – Hydrodynamic

  14. Flux-Rope-Like Structure – With 2D Magnetic Field

  15. High-Resolution ICME Simulation – HD

  16. High-Resolution Simulation

  17. Conclusion • Solar Wind – Fully-automatic forecasting (Weak Bz events only)‏ • ICMEs/fitted coronagraph observations – Semi-automatic forecasting (Moderate Bz by draping and shock compression)‏ • ICMEs/self-consistent eruption– In active research (strong Bz)‏ • ICMEs/semi-empirical flux ropes – Semi-automatic forecasting might ne possible (strong Bz)

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