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Special Winter Weather Briefing 2/3/2011 slides: srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Special Winter Weather Briefing 2/3/2011 slides: www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing. Keith Stellman. National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana. Overview. Tonight/Friday Arctic air in place across the region

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Special Winter Weather Briefing 2/3/2011 slides: srh.noaa/shv/briefing

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  1. Special Winter Weather Briefing2/3/2011slides:www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing Keith Stellman National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

  2. Overview Tonight/Friday Arctic air in place across the region Upper level system moves in and draws moisture in from the gulf over the cold air. Accumulations of 1-3 inches snow/minor sleet accumulations possible I-20 Corridor and south (Winter Weather Advisory area) Tyler>Longview>Shreveport>Magnolia>El Dorado and points south. Ice accumulations of 0.25-0.50 inches possible…(Winter Storm Warning area) Lufkin->Nacogdoches>Natchitoches->Winnfield>Monroe>Columbia>Colfax>Jena Beginning this evening 6 pm ending by 6 pm Friday. (Winter precipitation north of the Winter Storm Warning area may begin a little later than 6 pm this evening.) National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

  3. Big Picture H L L L Friday Today Tngt Strong Upper Level Low Pressure Area National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

  4. Regional View Snow Pack

  5. Temperatures Thursday Wind Chills Highs

  6. Winter Storm Warning/Advisory (6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday • Winter Precipitation expected across the entire Four State Region. • Warning areas in blue. • Advisory areas in purple.

  7. Sleet/snow/Freezing rain Dilemma Temperature profile at 6 AM Friday - Shreveport • High Res models suggest all snow in NW LA and portions of East Texas • Warm nose not as prevalent as the air is too cold to start Surface Tempeatures 25-28 Freezing line Height

  8. Sleet/snow/Freezing rain DilemmaTemperature profile at 6 AM Friday - Monroe • High Res models suggest all snow in NW LA and portions of East Texas • Warm nose not as prevalent as the air is too cold to start Surface Tempeatures 27-30 Freezing line Height

  9. Sleet/snow/Freezing rain Dilemma Temperature profile at 6 AM Friday - Monroe • Warm Nose appears and looks deep enough to melt the snow • Could either be sleet or freezing rain • Lufkin -> Natchitoches ->Columbia Freezing line Surface Tempeatures 28-31 Height

  10. Model Forecast 3 AM Friday • Models waver on the mix line. • Blue barbs indicate south winds transporting moisture north Snow to Sleet/Freezing Rain Line

  11. Total Liquid Equivalent (precip amounts) High Res Model • Model has been trending toward higher amounts in the Southeastern Parishes (0.50-1.00”) • Sabine, Natchitoches, Grant, Winn, La Salle, Caldwell

  12. Total Liquid Equivalent (precip amounts) Model Concensus (SREF) • This blend shows the highest swath in the Southeast and south (0.50-1.00”) • Sabine, Natchitoches, Grant, Winn, La Salle, Caldwell • The 2” line

  13. Overall Forecast

  14. Thu PM/Friday Lows Highs

  15. Impacts • Swath of 1”-4” of snow south of a Jacksonville->Marshall->Magnolia line • Sleet/Snow/Freezing Rain along a Lufkin ->Natchitoches->Columbia Line • Lower visibilities • Ground temps cold…precip will stick to bridges/overpasses and main roadways • Cold temperatures through Saturday AM to keep it around • If Freezing rain materializes, could be talking about 0.25-0.75” in the southeast…possibly higher in Grant/La Salle/Natchitoches • Over 0.50” would cause widespread Power outages • Instant freeze on all surfaces with temps in the 20s

  16. NEXT CONFERENCE CALL: Thursday 10 AM www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

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